156 Davidson Rd · Warner Robins, GA 31005

$335,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,574 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 2006 Est $425k · 21% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Huge Backyard .69 Acre, all fenced in! Large Bedrooms, 2 Living areas, large Dining Room, great kitchen, w/ all appliances including refrigerator. Full yard sprinkler system, move in ready. Celebrate Christmas this jewel!

Key facts

• Fixed canopy
• Large backyard
• Gas fireplace

Tags

• MOVE IN READY
• KITCHEN APPLIANCES STAY
• GAS FIREPLACE
• LARGE BACKYARD
• PRIVACY FENCE
• FIXED CANOPY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $335k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-374 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $269k (19.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (35.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $218k (35.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#227 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Houston County (urban): math 43% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #23 of 174 in GA (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bonaire Elementary School (math 67% / reading 60%, grade B, #99 of 1,228 statewide, top 8%, 529 students, 33% FRL); Bonaire Middle School (math 67% / reading 68%, grade A-, #21 of 470 statewide, top 4%, 1,140 students, 32% FRL); Veterans High School (math 33% / reading 32%, grade F, #104 of 424 statewide, top 25%, 1,914 students, 30% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 240 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,545 units permitted in Houston County in 2024 (336 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Houston County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($330k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $178k; list at $335k implies a 88% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $217,652 (35.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.79%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $424,710
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
117 Maisie Way	0.69mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,599 (+1%)	1mo	$404,900	$156	60
117 Maisie Way #232	0.69mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,599 (+1%)	1mo	$404,900	$156	60
503 Thurston St	0.41mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,862 (+11%)	0mo	$395,000	$138	55
507 Foster Sydney Ct	0.51mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,297 (-11%)	2mo	$380,000	$165	52
130 Maisie Way #201	0.69mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,406 (-6%)	1mo	$407,500	$169	51
130 Maisie Way	0.69mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,406 (-6%)	1mo	$407,500	$169	51
128 Maisie Way	0.69mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,379 (-8%)	0mo	$391,400	$165	50
128 Maisie Way #202	0.69mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,379 (-8%)	0mo	$391,400	$165	50
314 Apalachee Way	0.72mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,697 (+5%)	2mo	$485,000	$180	50
511 Foster Sydney Dr Lot 53	0.54mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,286 (-11%)	3mo	$353,130	$154	49
817 Brittany Nichole Ct Lot 137	0.58mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,286 (-11%)	0mo	$362,511	$159	49
817 Brittany Nichole Lot 137 Ct Lot 137	0.58mi	4/1.5 (+1)	2,286 (-11%)	0mo	$362,511	$159	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.53% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-74,818
• Equity at exit: $49,950

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-81,856
• Equity at exit: $28,965

Cash invested: $93,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31005

• Home prices YoY: -17.1%
• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 240
• Price-to-rent: 12.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,177 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,757
• Tax from tax record: −$197 /mo · $2,367/yr
• Insurance: −$140
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$457
• Net cashflow: $-374

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,650

Max offer price $268,900

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-185	-5% $-279	+0% $-374	+5% $-469	+10% $-564
Rent	-10% $-546	-5% $-460	+0% $-374	+5% $-288	+10% $-202
Rate	-1.0pp $-205	-0.5pp $-289	base $-374	+0.5pp $-461	+1.0pp $-549

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $83,750
• Closing costs: $10,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
107 Pocono Ct Bonaire, GA	4.0	2.5	2781	$2,600	$0.93	15d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $335,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $335,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $335,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $335,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $335,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $335,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $335,000 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $335,000 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $335,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $335,000 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $335,000 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $335,000 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    remarks 687-char remark
14. 2026-06-05
    listed $335,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,367 · $197/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,082 · $257/mo
• Expected delta: +$715/yr (+$60/mo · 30.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,118
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,765
• − Property taxes: −$2,367
• − Insurance: −$1,675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,089
• − Management: −$2,089
• − Depreciation: −$9,745
• Taxable loss: −$10,614
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,547
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,943/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston County
• NCES district ID: 1302880
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $54,823
• Composite: 38.68/100
• National rank: #4144
• State rank: #23 of 174 in GA

Livability — Warner Robins

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #227
• US rank: #13290

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Houston County · 157,321 people
• City population: 92,102
• Metro: Warner Robins, GA
• Population (ZIP): 22,063
• Household income: $110,461
• Rent vs Own: 22.1% rent · 77.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 212.0

Population outlook (Houston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 169,502 people
• By 2030: 178,486 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 194,642 · +14.8%
• By 2050: 207,119 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 231,480 · +36.6%
• By 2100: 235,034 · +38.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Black 23% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1% Salvadoran 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Houston

• 2024 margin: R (+11.3) · D 44.0% · R 55.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.9pp toward D · 2008: -20.2pp · 2024: -11.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.3 2020: R+12.4 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+20.7 2008: R+20.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.85%
• Current HPI: 213.0605
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.53%
• Metro: Warner Robins, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+86.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $335,000 FSBO.com
• 2014-06-04 Sold (Public Records) $178,000 Public Records
• 2014-05-23 Sold (MLS) $178,000 GAMLS
• 2004-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $179,250 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,367 · +35.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.