302 S Main St. St · Pavillion, WY 82523

$113,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · SingleFamily · 20 Days on market

Built 1997 6,970 sqft lot Est $80k · 42% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.0/30.0
• Appreciation +6.5/10.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Key facts

• Covered deck
• Spacious yard
• Open floor plan

Tags

• NEWER ROOF
• FRESH EXTERIOR PAINT
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• COVERED DECK
• SPACIOUS YARD
• IRRIGATION

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Composition roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Chain link fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Oven; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Forced air heating
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Dryer; Refrigerator; Range; Oven; Washer
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $114k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $141 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $114k).
• Recommended offer: $112k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#86 in WY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, schools B+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Fremont County School District # 6 (rural): math 41% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #34 of 41 in WY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP; 22 units permitted in Fremont County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($788 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.9% local appreciation)).
• Fremont County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($112k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,289 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.28%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $80,256
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
304 S Cherry	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	13mo	$99,900	$82	86
109 N Cherry St	0.21mi	3/1.0	1,200 (-1%)	1mo	$72,500	$60	83
309 S Cherry St	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,050 (-14%)	11mo	$69,000	$66	63
309 N Pine Pne	0.33mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,273 (+5%)	20mo	$57,500	$45	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.93% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.70×
• Total profit: $22,307
• Equity at exit: $50,841

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.11×
• Total profit: $67,401
• Equity at exit: $78,029

Cash invested: $31,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Wyoming: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+25
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable; small market.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 82523

• Home prices YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 3
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,175 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$598
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$142 /mo · $1,710/yr
• Insurance: −$47
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$247
• Net cashflow: $141

Break-even live

Break-even rent $997

Max offer price $113,999

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,500
• Closing costs: $3,420
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $113,999 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $113,999 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $113,999 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $113,999 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $113,999 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $113,999 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $113,999 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $113,999 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $113,999 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $113,999 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $113,999 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $113,999 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $113,999 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $113,999 Active 2 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    listed $113,999 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,101
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,386
• − Property taxes: −$1,710
• − Insurance: −$570
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,128
• − Management: −$1,128
• − Depreciation: −$3,316
• Taxable loss: −$137
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$33
• After-tax cash flow: $1,719/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fremont County School District # 6
• NCES district ID: 5602830
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $50,976
• Composite: 38.71/100
• National rank: #4140
• State rank: #34 of 41 in WY

Livability — Pavillion

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #86
• US rank: #13504

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pavillion, WY
• Population (ZIP): 993

Population outlook (Fremont County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 39,368 people
• By 2030: 38,412 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 36,224 · -8.0%
• By 2050: 34,314 · -12.8%
• By 2075: 30,353 · -22.9%
• By 2100: 25,821 · -34.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 5% Native American 4% Pacific Islander 3%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 5% Slovak 4% Serbian 4%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · German/W. Germanic 3% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fremont

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.4) · D 30.4% · R 67.7% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.6pp toward R · 2008: -28.8pp · 2024: -37.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.4 2020: R+35.8 2016: R+42.1 2012: R+34.1 2008: R+28.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.93%
• Current HPI: 175.3679
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Listed $113,999 WMLS

Property tax history

-1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $99 · -22.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.