1533 Gieseking Ln · St. Louis, MO 63147

$42,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,150 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1939 4,608 sqft lot Est $80k · 48% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

2 bed 1 bath home ready for a new owner! possible room to make extra room upstairs and possible extra bathroom in the basement.

Key facts

• 4,608 sq ft lot
• Built 1939
• Listed 14 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Electric service: Other
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Lot in North Pointe neighborhood; Other lot features

Interior

• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Other heating; Other cooling
• Interior features: Living room fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $42k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $657 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $42k).
• Cap rate 25.1% vs local median 5.0% in St. Louis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Louis City (urban): math 10% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #312 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Earl Nance Sr. Elem. (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #1,099 of 1,115 statewide, top 100%, 321 students, 99% FRL); Vashon High (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #520 of 521 statewide, top 100%, 568 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 80% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 294 units permitted in St. Louis city in 2024 (227 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($41k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $290 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Louis County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1939 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $42,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1939 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.80% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 67.08%
• DSCR: 3.98
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $80,500
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1545 Sells Ave	0.11mi	2/1.0	1,075 (-6%)	2mo	$75,000	$70	82
8554 Drury Ln	0.11mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,196 (+4%)	1mo	$159,900	$134	81
8791 Goodfellow Blvd	0.46mi	2/1.0	1,150 (0%)	6mo	$22,000	$19	73
5972 Tara Ln	0.18mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,032 (-10%)	6mo	$98,500	$95	63
1719 Veronica Ave	0.39mi	2/1.0	984 (-14%)	2mo	$94,500	$96	57
5741 Floy Ave	0.67mi	2/1.0	1,100 (-4%)	6mo	$65,000	$59	57
5974 Park Ln	0.25mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,008 (-12%)	6mo	$55,000	$55	55
1025 Hornsby Ave	0.62mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,110 (-4%)	6mo	$86,000	$77	53
8464 Edna St	0.44mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,296 (+13%)	1mo	$95,000	$73	46
5709 Goodfellow Blvd	0.71mi	2/1.0	1,020 (-11%)	4mo	$19,900	$20	45
8930 Sides Ct	0.73mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,008 (-12%)	1mo	$65,000	$64	37
5519 Partridge Ave	0.73mi	3/2.0 (+1)	992 (-14%)	3mo	$12,500	$13	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 66.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.98×
• Total profit: $35,067
• Equity at exit: $6,262

10-year hold

• IRR: 70.6%
• Equity multiple: 8.18×
• Total profit: $84,473
• Equity at exit: $3,631

Cash invested: $11,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63147

• Home prices YoY: -31.4%
• Active inventory: 57
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,177 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$220
• Tax from tax record: −$35 /mo · $415/yr
• Insurance: −$18
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$247
• Net cashflow: $657

Break-even live

Break-even rent $345

Max offer price $42,000

Occupancy floor 39%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,500
• Closing costs: $1,260
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8548 Drury Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1107	$1,420	$1.28	44d	1	0.10mi
8828 Riverview Blvd Apt 2S St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	816	$850	$1.04	44d	1	0.38mi
5932 Floy Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1080	$1,373	$1.27	20d	1	0.48mi
5955 Floy Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1032	$1,050	$1.02	3d	1	0.48mi
5756 Floy Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1080	$995	$0.92	44d	1	0.61mi
1942 Damato Ct Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	905	$1,100	$1.22	44d	1	0.64mi
5741 Floy Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,100	$1.10	24d	1	0.65mi
5721 Floy Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1032	$1,120	$1.09	24d	1	0.68mi
5574 Era Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	850	$1,400	$1.65	12d	1	0.71mi
5654 Acme Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	968	$325	$0.34	22d	1	0.75mi
2022 McLaran Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1181	$1,593	$1.35	15d	1	0.75mi
2056 Coleridge Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	949	$1,195	$1.26	24d	1	0.75mi
8502 Dianthus Ln Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1072	$1,175	$1.10	24d	1	0.75mi
5546 Floy Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	850	$1,273	$1.50	20d	1	0.77mi
8527 Dianthus Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	976	$1,295	$1.33	44d	1	0.77mi
5931 Emma Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	880	$1,200	$1.36	44d	1	0.77mi
5662 Wilborn Dr Saint Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	768	$850	$1.11	24d	1	0.77mi
5612 Hodiamont Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,150	$0.96	10d	1	0.94mi
5515 Wilborn Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1248	$1,400	$1.12	44d	1	0.95mi
8530 Lowell St Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	918	$1,100	$1.20	44d	1	0.95mi
8817 Shady Grove Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1085	$1,075	$0.99	24d	1	1.01mi
5936 Theodore Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1008	$1,350	$1.34	44d	1	1.05mi
5637 Jennings Station Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1116	$895	$0.80	44d	1	1.09mi
9418 Pattonwood Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	982	$1,500	$1.53	24d	1	1.14mi
5439 Hodiamont Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	770	$950	$1.23	18d	1	1.14mi
5415 Hamilton Ave Unit Labs Jennings, MO	2.0	1.0	864	$1,100	$1.27	24d	1	1.15mi
605 Fremont Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	750	$995	$1.33	44d	1	1.17mi
5361 Wilborn Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	900	$1,420	$1.58	18d	1	1.19mi
8344 Eton Pl Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	750	$895	$1.19	4d	1	1.20mi
8720 Akins Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1012	$1,150	$1.14	24d	1	1.20mi
8347 Eton Pl Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	750	$1,075	$1.43	44d	1	1.22mi
7142 Lamont Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	750	$1,100	$1.47	18d	1	1.22mi
2415 Shirley Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	990	$1,450	$1.46	24d	1	1.23mi
6150 Sherry Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1032	$896	$0.87	24d	1	1.24mi
1225 Newark Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	944	$1,400	$1.48	3d	1	1.25mi
7120 Greenhaven Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1131	$1,050	$0.93	24d	1	1.27mi
6153 Laura Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	834	$1,000	$1.20	24d	1	1.27mi
2427 Switzer Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,300	$1.29	44d	1	1.27mi
7030 Emma Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	801	$1,350	$1.69	44d	1	1.30mi
7205 Calvin Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	832	$750	$0.90	44d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-05
   statusdays on market $42,000 Pending 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $42,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $42,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $42,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $42,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-05-21
   listed $42,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $415 · $35/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $415 · $35/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,121
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,353
• − Property taxes: −$415
• − Insurance: −$210
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,130
• − Management: −$1,130
• − Depreciation: −$1,222
• Taxable income: $7,663
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,839
• After-tax cash flow: $6,049/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Louis City
• NCES district ID: 2929280
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,685
• Composite: 11.54/100
• National rank: #9699
• State rank: #312 of 324 in MO

Livability — St. Louis

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Louis, MO
• County: Saint Louis City · 254,015 people
• City population: 283,259
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 8,173
• Household income: $41,182
• Rent vs Own: 42.0% rent · 58.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 418.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 315,737 people
• By 2030: 313,865 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 305,439 · -3.3%
• By 2050: 296,529 · -6.1%
• By 2075: 271,028 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 255,359 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 92% White 5% Two or more races 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.7) · D 81.4% · R 16.7% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.5pp toward R · 2008: 68.2pp · 2024: 64.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.7 2020: D+66.2 2016: D+63.7 2012: D+66.6 2008: D+68.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -38.51%
• Current HPI: 84.224
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $42,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-4.3%/yr

Latest (2023): $415 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.