3460 70th Ave NE · Orangetree, FL 34120

$125,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 460 sqft · Land · 206 Days on market

Built 2026 7,500 sqft lot ↓ 58% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A Beautiful 5 acre Estates lot with Huge Lake!!! Uplands ready to be Built on! The majority of the lot has been cleared, This is a must see Property!

Key facts

• 7,500 sq ft lot
• Built 2026
• Listed 205 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Modular home; Single-story; Faces south; First floor entry
• Construction: Modular/Prefab construction; Metal frame; Tie down foundation; New construction
• Exterior features: Balcony; Deck; Open porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Bedroom on main level; First floor entry; Family room
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $268 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#636 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, schools D-, amenities F.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1124 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 206 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 206 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.58% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.83%
• DSCR: 2.06
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-8,653
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-6,686
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34120

• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1124
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,973 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$156 /mo · $1,875/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$414
• Net cashflow: $268

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,633

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 206 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 205 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 204 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 203 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $125,000 Active 198 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 197 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 196 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $125,000 Active 195 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $125,000 Active 191 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 190 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 189 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 188 DOM
13. 2026-05-30
    days on market $125,000 Active 187 DOM
14. 2025-12-01
    status Active
15. 2025-11-04
    status Active
16. 2025-10-31
    status Active
17. 2025-10-28
    status Active
18. 2025-10-26
    historical
19. 2025-10-26
    listed $125,000
20. 2025-01-17
    price $125,000
21. 2025-01-12
    listed $100,000 Active
22. 2025-01-07
    soldstatus $250,000 Sold 150-char remark

    Show marketing remark (150 chars)

    A Beautiful 5 acre Estates lot with Huge Lake!!! Uplands ready to be Built on! The majority of the lot has been cleared, This is a must see Property!

23. 2025-01-02
    status Pending With Contingencies 150-char remark

    Show marketing remark (150 chars)

    A Beautiful 5 acre Estates lot with Huge Lake!!! Uplands ready to be Built on! The majority of the lot has been cleared, This is a must see Property!

24. 2024-11-13
    listed $299,900 Active 150-char remark

    Show marketing remark (150 chars)

    A Beautiful 5 acre Estates lot with Huge Lake!!! Uplands ready to be Built on! The majority of the lot has been cleared, This is a must see Property!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AE · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,677
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,875
• − Insurance: −$5,744
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,894
• − Management: −$1,894
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $1,632
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$392
• After-tax cash flow: $2,829/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Orangetree

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #636
• US rank: #12453

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,345
• Household income: $93,861
• Rent vs Own: 9.4% rent · 90.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 409.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 23% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 13%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 28% French/Haitian/Cajun 5% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -223.18%
• Current HPI: 316.2474
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.65%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-58.3% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-01 Relisted — MARMLS
• 2025-11-04 Relisted — MARMLS
• 2025-10-31 Relisted — MARMLS
• 2025-10-28 Relisted — MARMLS
• 2025-10-26 Listed $125,000 MARMLS
• 2025-10-26 Listing Removed — MARMLS
• 2025-01-17 Price Changed $125,000 MARMLS
• 2025-01-12 Listed $100,000 MARMLS
• 2025-01-07 Sold (MLS) $250,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-01-02 Pending — NAPLESMLS
• 2024-11-13 Listed $299,900 NAPLESMLS