2552 Thornton Rd · Sinclairville, NY 14782

$69,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,920 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 49 Days on market

Built 1995 2.80 ac lot $36/sqft · 74% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.3/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

VERY NICE COUNTRY HOME that is IN MOVE CONDITION and is much more spacious than it appears from the outside. Located in a beautiful treed setting, with a basketball court and new 10 X 12 shed this 12 year old stick build ranch features; 4 bed rooms, 2 full baths, living room, dinning room, kitchen, and a family room in the finished basement area!!!! THIS IS A MUST SEE!!!!

Key facts

• Large bay windows
• L-shaped kitchen
• Rolling acreage

Tags

• PRIVATE WOODED AREA
• ROLLING ACREAGE
• LARGE BAY WINDOWS
• L-SHAPED KITCHEN
• PLENTY OF CUPBOARD STORAGE
• OPEN ACCESS TO BASEMENT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Septic tank; Well water; Propane service
• Home design: Single-story home; Frame construction; Resale fixer property
• Construction: Block foundation; Existing construction (year built: existing)
• Exterior features: Deck; Gravel driveway; Shed(s) and storage; Wooded lot; Rectangular lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Solid surface counters
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Hardwood; Varies
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating
• Interior features: Separate formal dining room; Separate formal living room; Solid surface counters; Storage; Convertible bedroom; Main-level primary bedroom; Partially finished basement; Bonus room; Recreation room; Other (see remarks)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement; Propane water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $428 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,062 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Cassadaga Valley Central School District (rural): math 41% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #372 of 590 in NY (top 63%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($483 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (4.6% local appreciation)).
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.5% of price.

Recommended offer $67,803 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.96% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.26%
• DSCR: 2.17
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $269,453
• List price: $69,900
• Delta: -74.06%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

4.6% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 35.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.14×
• Total profit: $41,940
• Equity at exit: $37,938

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.33×
• Total profit: $104,236
• Equity at exit: $64,131

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14782

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 18
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,371 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$259 /mo · $3,112/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$288
• Net cashflow: $428

Break-even live

Break-even rent $829

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $69,900 Active 49 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,900 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,900 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,900 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,900 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $69,900 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $69,900 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,900 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,900 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $79,900 Active 37 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $79,900 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,900 Active 32 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,900 Active 31 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,900 Active 30 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $79,900 Active 29 DOM
16. 2026-05-01
    listed $79,900 Active 1313-char remark
17. 2009-09-18
    listed $77,000
18. 2005-05-13
    soldstatus $79,900
19. 2005-05-06
    soldstatus $79,900

    Show marketing remark (375 chars)

    VERY NICE COUNTRY HOME that is IN MOVE CONDITION and is much more spacious than it appears from the outside. Located in a beautiful treed setting, with a basketball court and new 10 X 12 shed this 12 year old stick build ranch features; 4 bed rooms, 2 full baths, living room, dinning room, kitchen, and a family room in the finished basement area!!!! THIS IS A MUST SEE!!!!

20. 2004-06-01
    listed $79,900

    Show marketing remark (375 chars)

    VERY NICE COUNTRY HOME that is IN MOVE CONDITION and is much more spacious than it appears from the outside. Located in a beautiful treed setting, with a basketball court and new 10 X 12 shed this 12 year old stick build ranch features; 4 bed rooms, 2 full baths, living room, dinning room, kitchen, and a family room in the finished basement area!!!! THIS IS A MUST SEE!!!!

21. 2002-03-23
    listed $79,900
22. 1998-02-18
    soldstatus $52,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,112 · $259/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,112 · $259/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,455
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$3,112
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,316
• − Management: −$1,316
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $4,412
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,059
• After-tax cash flow: $4,080/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cassadaga Valley Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3606660
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▲ 15.00%
• Median HH income: $46,654
• Composite: 43.22/100
• National rank: #3059
• State rank: #372 of 590 in NY

Livability — Sinclairville

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1062
• US rank: #21176

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 2,010
• Population (ZIP): 2,010

Population outlook (Chautauqua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,454 people
• By 2030: 118,509 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 107,311 · -13.1%
• By 2050: 96,703 · -21.7%
• By 2075: 76,757 · -37.8%
• By 2100: 60,984 · -50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 7% Italian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chautauqua

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.0) · D 39.0% · R 61.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: 0.9pp · 2024: -22.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.0 2020: R+19.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+8.2 2008: D+0.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.60%
• Current HPI: 383.2164
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+34.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Price Changed $69,900 UNYREIS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $79,900 UNYREIS
• 2009-09-18 Listed $77,000 UNYREIS
• 2005-05-13 Sold (Public Records) $79,900 Public Records
• 2005-05-06 Sold (MLS) $79,900 UNYREIS
• 2004-06-01 Listed $79,900 UNYREIS
• 2002-03-23 Listed $79,900 UNYREIS
• 1998-02-18 Sold (Public Records) $52,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,112 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.