105 Nutwood Rd · Middlesborough, KY 40965

$35,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 728 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 129 Days on market

Built 1947 Poor condition 5,532 sqft lot $48/sqft · 61% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.8/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bed, 1 bath fixer-upper in Middlesboro, KY! Great investment opportunity—flip, rent, or make it your own. City water/sewer (per public record). Priced for potential—bring your ideas!

Key facts

• 5,532 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1947

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $35k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $609 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $35k).
• Recommended offer: $31k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 27.2% vs local median 3.2% in Middlesborough — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#456 in KY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Middlesboro Independent (town): math 14% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #153 of 165 in KY (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Middlesboro Elementary School (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #572 of 676 statewide, top 88%, 453 students, 83% FRL); Middlesboro Middle School (math 17% / reading 41%, grade F, #156 of 217 statewide, top 74%, 281 students, 82% FRL); Middlesboro High School (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #222 of 254 statewide, top 89%, 352 students, 73% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 63% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 86 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 44 units permitted in Bell County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($31k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($242 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
• Bell County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($31k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (30%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $30,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 27.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 74.52%
• DSCR: 4.32
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $88,800
• List price: $35,000
• Delta: -60.59%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
106 Ellenwood Rd	0.15mi	2/1.0 (-1)	810 (+11%)	22mo	$96,500	$119	50
108 S 8th St	1.35mi	2/1.0 (-1)	700 (-4%)	18mo	$38,000	$54	39
333 Avondale Ave	1.34mi	3/1.0	770 (+6%)	27mo	$80,000	$104	35
1009 E Cumberland Ave	1.17mi	2/1.0 (-1)	850 (+17%)	2mo	$95,000	$112	33
524 E Lothbury Ave	0.76mi	2/1.0 (-1)	800 (+10%)	13mo	$160,000	$200	32
305 N 15th St	0.70mi	2/1.0 (-1)	876 (+20%)	9mo	$50,000	$57	30
212 S 32nd St	1.22mi	2/1.0 (-1)	776 (+7%)	24mo	$129,900	$167	29
116 Willow St	0.52mi	2/1.0 (-1)	904 (+24%)	30mo	$55,000	$61	26
114 Willow St	0.52mi	2/1.0 (-1)	904 (+24%)	33mo	$65,000	$72	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.6% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 79.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.50×
• Total profit: $44,107
• Equity at exit: $16,935

10-year hold

• IRR: 78.6%
• Equity multiple: 11.34×
• Total profit: $101,351
• Equity at exit: $27,072

Cash invested: $9,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 2 active
• Median asking: $157,450 ($193/sqft)
• Median days on market: 52 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -36.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 40965

• Home prices YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 86
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,055 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$184
• Tax from tax record: −$27 /mo · $322/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$222
• Net cashflow: $609

Break-even live

Break-even rent $285

Max offer price $35,000

Occupancy floor 37%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $628	-5% $618	+0% $609	+5% $599	+10% $589
Rent	-10% $525	-5% $567	+0% $609	+5% $650	+10% $692
Rate	-1.0pp $626	-0.5pp $617	base $609	+0.5pp $599	+1.0pp $590

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,750
• Closing costs: $1,050
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-07-31
   days on market $35,000 Active 129 DOM
2. 2026-07-30
   days on market $35,000 Active 128 DOM
3. 2026-07-29
   days on market $35,000 Active 127 DOM
4. 2026-07-27
   days on market $35,000 Active 125 DOM
5. 2026-07-25
   days on market $35,000 Active 123 DOM
6. 2026-07-24
   days on market $35,000 Active 122 DOM
7. 2026-07-24
   price $35,000 Active 121 DOM
8. 2026-07-23
   days on market $50,000 Active 121 DOM
9. 2026-07-22
   days on market $50,000 Active 120 DOM
10. 2026-07-21
    days on market $50,000 Active 119 DOM
11. 2026-07-18
    days on market $50,000 Active 116 DOM
12. 2026-07-16
    days on market $50,000 Active 114 DOM
13. 2026-07-15
    days on market $50,000 Active 113 DOM
14. 2026-07-14
    days on market $50,000 Active 112 DOM
15. 2026-07-13
    days on market $50,000 Active 111 DOM
16. 2026-07-12
    days on market $50,000 Active 110 DOM
17. 2026-07-12
    days on market $50,000 Active 109 DOM
18. 2026-07-10
    days on market $50,000 Active 108 DOM
19. 2026-07-09
    days on market $50,000 Active 107 DOM
20. 2026-07-08
    days on market $50,000 Active 105 DOM
21. 2026-07-06
    days on market $50,000 Active 104 DOM
22. 2026-07-05
    days on market $50,000 Active 103 DOM
23. 2026-07-04
    days on market $50,000 Active 102 DOM
24. 2026-07-03
    days on market $50,000 Active 101 DOM
25. 2026-07-03
    days on market $50,000 Active 100 DOM
26. 2026-07-01
    days on market $50,000 Active 99 DOM
27. 2026-06-30
    days on market $50,000 Active 98 DOM
28. 2026-06-29
    days on market $50,000 Active 97 DOM
29. 2026-06-28
    days on market $50,000 Active 96 DOM
30. 2026-06-27
    days on market $50,000 Active 95 DOM
31. 2026-06-26
    days on market $50,000 Active 93 DOM
32. 2026-06-22
    days on market $50,000 Active 90 DOM
33. 2026-06-21
    days on market $50,000 Active 89 DOM
34. 2026-06-21
    days on market $50,000 Active 88 DOM
35. 2026-06-18
    days on market $50,000 Active 86 DOM
36. 2026-06-17
    days on market $50,000 Active 85 DOM
37. 2026-06-16
    days on market $50,000 Active 84 DOM
38. 2026-06-15
    days on market $50,000 Active 83 DOM
39. 2026-06-13
    days on market $50,000 Active 81 DOM
40. 2026-06-12
    days on market $50,000 Active 80 DOM
41. 2026-06-09
    days on market $50,000 Active 77 DOM
42. 2026-06-08
    days on market $50,000 Active 76 DOM
43. 2026-06-07
    days on market $50,000 Active 75 DOM
44. 2026-06-07
    days on market $50,000 Active 74 DOM
45. 2026-06-04
    days on market $50,000 Active 71 DOM
46. 2026-06-02
    days on market $50,000 Active 70 DOM
47. 2026-06-01
    days on market $50,000 Active 69 DOM
48. 2026-05-31
    days on market $50,000 Active 68 DOM
49. 2026-05-31
    days on market $50,000 Active 67 DOM
50. 2026-03-24
    listed $50,000 Active 196-char remark

    Show marketing remark (196 chars)

    3 bed, 1 bath fixer-upper in Middlesboro, KY! Great investment opportunity—flip, rent, or make it your own. City water/sewer (per public record). Priced for potential—bring your ideas!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $322 · $27/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $322 · $27/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,660
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,961
• − Property taxes: −$322
• − Insurance: −$175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,013
• − Management: −$1,013
• − Depreciation: −$1,018
• Taxable income: $7,159
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,718
• After-tax cash flow: $5,584/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab Est. rehab $36,400–$65,520 screening

This single-family home in Middlesboro, KY is in poor condition with extensive repairs and maintenance needed, including roof replacement and exterior siding repair. Significant value can be added through these improvements, making it a great investment opportunity.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Exposed roof structure
• Major exterior siding — Weathered and damaged
• Major landscaping — Overgrown vegetation

Value-add opportunities

• Both roof replacement — Critical need for water damage prevention ↑
• Both exterior siding repair/replacement — Aesthetic improvement and potential water damage prevention ↑
• Both landscaping and yard maintenance — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Extensive scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 22/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Middlesboro Elementary School F KY #572/676 Nat'l #33,738/41,679 Middle Middlesboro Middle School F KY #156/217 Nat'l #9,290/14,009 High Middlesboro High School F KY #222/254 Nat'l #15,029/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Middlesboro Independent
• NCES district ID: 2104170
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -17.00%
• Median HH income: $23,442
• Composite: 18.61/100
• National rank: #8900
• State rank: #153 of 165 in KY

D Composite livability gradescore 56/100

Livability — Middlesborough

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #456
• US rank: #22662

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Middlesborough, KY
• County: Bell · 24,501 people
• City population: 11,698
• Population (ZIP): 11,698
• Household income: $30,980
• Rent vs Own: 43.0% rent · 57.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

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Population outlook (Bell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,501 people
• By 2030: 22,923 · -6.4%
• By 2040: 19,860 · -18.9%
• By 2050: 17,161 · -30.0%
• By 2075: 12,070 · -50.7%
• By 2100: 8,525 · -65.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%

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Political lean MEDSL · Bell

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.7) · D 15.2% · R 83.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.1pp toward R · 2008: -40.6pp · 2024: -68.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.7 2020: R+63.2 2016: R+62.2 2012: R+51.7 2008: R+40.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.60%
• Current HPI: 134.9069
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-64.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-24 Listed $50,000 ImagineMLS
• 2017-06-13 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2016-06-13 Listed $30,000 ImagineMLS
• 2015-12-04 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $322 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.