105 Nutwood Rd · Middlesborough, KY 40965

$50,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 728 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 88 Days on market

Built 1947 5,532 sqft lot $69/sqft · 37% below area Est $80k · 37% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +6.8/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bed, 1 bath fixer-upper in Middlesboro, KY! Great investment opportunity—flip, rent, or make it your own. City water/sewer (per public record). Priced for potential—bring your ideas!

Key facts

• 5,532 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1947

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $561 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $47k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.8% vs local median 3.4% in Middlesborough — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#456 in KY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Middlesboro Independent (town): math 14% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #153 of 165 in KY (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 71 active listings in the ZIP; 44 units permitted in Bell County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($346 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
• Bell County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($47k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $47,000 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 48.08%
• DSCR: 3.14
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $79,991
• List price: $50,000
• Delta: -37.49%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
106 Ellenwood Rd	0.15mi	2/1.0 (-1)	810 (+11%)	21mo	$96,500	$119	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.6% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 54.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.10×
• Total profit: $43,350
• Equity at exit: $24,193

10-year hold

• IRR: 53.1%
• Equity multiple: 8.31×
• Total profit: $102,315
• Equity at exit: $38,674

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40965

• Home prices YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 71
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,102 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$27 /mo · $322/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$231
• Net cashflow: $561

Break-even live

Break-even rent $392

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 44%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $589	-5% $575	+0% $561	+5% $547	+10% $533
Rent	-10% $474	-5% $517	+0% $561	+5% $604	+10% $648
Rate	-1.0pp $586	-0.5pp $574	base $561	+0.5pp $548	+1.0pp $535

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $50,000 Active 88 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $50,000 Active 86 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $50,000 Active 85 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $50,000 Active 84 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $50,000 Active 83 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $50,000 Active 81 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $50,000 Active 80 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $50,000 Active 77 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $50,000 Active 76 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $50,000 Active 75 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $50,000 Active 74 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $50,000 Active 71 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $50,000 Active 70 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $50,000 Active 69 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $50,000 Active 68 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $50,000 Active 67 DOM
17. 2026-03-24
    listed $50,000 Active 196-char remark

    Show marketing remark (196 chars)

    3 bed, 1 bath fixer-upper in Middlesboro, KY! Great investment opportunity—flip, rent, or make it your own. City water/sewer (per public record). Priced for potential—bring your ideas!

18. 2017-06-13
    historical
19. 2016-06-13
    listed $30,000
20. 2015-12-04
    soldstatus $140,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $322 · $27/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $430 · $36/mo
• Expected delta: +$108/yr (+$9/mo · 33.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,226
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$322
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,058
• − Management: −$1,058
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $6,283
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,508
• After-tax cash flow: $5,223/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Middlesboro Independent
• NCES district ID: 2104170
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -17.00%
• Median HH income: $23,442
• Composite: 18.61/100
• National rank: #8900
• State rank: #153 of 165 in KY

Livability — Middlesborough

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #456
• US rank: #22662

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Middlesborough, KY
• City population: 11,698
• Population (ZIP): 11,698

Population outlook (Bell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,501 people
• By 2030: 22,923 · -6.4%
• By 2040: 19,860 · -18.9%
• By 2050: 17,161 · -30.0%
• By 2075: 12,070 · -50.7%
• By 2100: 8,525 · -65.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Bell

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.7) · D 15.2% · R 83.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.1pp toward R · 2008: -40.6pp · 2024: -68.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.7 2020: R+63.2 2016: R+62.2 2012: R+51.7 2008: R+40.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.60%
• Current HPI: 134.9069
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-64.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-24 Listed $50,000 ImagineMLS
• 2017-06-13 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2016-06-13 Listed $30,000 ImagineMLS
• 2015-12-04 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $322 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.