401 Lake Ave S · Balaton, MN 56115

$155,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,184 sqft · SingleFamily · 10 Days on market

Built 1915 3,571 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.3/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 401 Lake Ave. S. in Balaton—a very well-maintained 4-bedroom home full of charm and functionality, offered at $155,000. Situated on a desirable corner lot, this property features an oversized two-stall attached garage with an impressive 728 sq ft—perfect for extra storage, hobbies, or workspace—along with a 12x18 shed for added convenience. Inside, you’ll appreciate the character throughout, showcasing original baseboard trim that adds timeless character throughout. Recent updates, including a new boiler and new roof, provide peace of mind for years to come. With 4 bedrooms, 1 full bathroom, and a convenient half bath, this home offers a practical layout w

Key facts

• 3,571 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1915

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $226 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $153k (1.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $153k (1.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#477 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Zoned schools: Tracy Elementary (math 57% / reading 57%, grade C+, #265 of 857 statewide, top 35%, 327 students, 56% FRL); Tracy Secondary (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #143 of 471 statewide, top 33%, 330 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: 52 active listings in the ZIP; 91 units permitted in Lyon County in 2024 (72 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lyon County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1915 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $152,596 (1.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1915 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.24%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.28×
• Total profit: $98,752
• Equity at exit: $139,636

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.44×
• Total profit: $279,444
• Equity at exit: $301,131

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 56115

• Home prices YoY: 11.5%
• Active inventory: 52
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,526 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$102 /mo · $1,230/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$320
• Net cashflow: $226

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,240

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $313	-5% $269	+0% $226	+5% $182	+10% $138
Rent	-10% $105	-5% $165	+0% $226	+5% $286	+10% $346
Rate	-1.0pp $304	-0.5pp $265	base $226	+0.5pp $185	+1.0pp $145

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-17
   historical Contingent - Inspection
3. 2026-04-14
   listed $155,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,230 · $102/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,483 · $124/mo
• Expected delta: +$253/yr (+$21/mo · 20.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,312
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$1,230
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,465
• − Management: −$1,465
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable income: $185
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$44
• After-tax cash flow: $2,663/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Balaton

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #477
• US rank: #11330

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Balaton, MN
• Population (ZIP): 1,262

Population outlook (Lyon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 25,369 people
• By 2030: 24,890 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 23,599 · -7.0%
• By 2050: 22,383 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 20,076 · -20.9%
• By 2100: 18,901 · -25.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 17% Iranian 6% Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lyon

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.8) · D 33.1% · R 64.9% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.2pp toward R · 2008: -1.6pp · 2024: -31.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.8 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+28.3 2012: R+9.2 2008: R+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.48%
• Current HPI: 111.48
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-17 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-14 Listed $155,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,230 · -0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.