987 Pampas Dr · Grass Valley, CA 95945

$129,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,188 sqft · Manufactured · 141 Days on market

Built 2016 3,772 sqft lot Est $105k · 24% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome To The Crown Jewel Of Olympia Glade! Built In 2016, This Stunning 3 Bedroom, 2 Bathroom Home Offers The Perfect Blend Of Comfort, Style, And Functionality In One Of Grass Valley's Premier 55+ Communities. A Lush Garden Entry Leads To A Charming Covered Porch And Light-Filled Living Space With Updated Flooring, Modern Fixtures, And An Inviting Open Layout. The Kitchen Shines With Crisp White Cabinetry, Striking Tile Accents, A Walk-In Lighted Pantry, And A Coffee + Breakfast Bar For Easy Entertaining. The Thoughtful Floor Plan Includes A Private Office, Separate Laundry Room Now Featuring 220 and Gas Hookups Plus Brand New Washer and Dryer! Enjoy Peaceful Views Of The Surrounding Tre

Key facts

• Open layout
• Updated flooring
• Modern fixtures

Tags

• LUSH GARDEN ENTRY
• CHARMING COVERED PORCH
• LIGHT FILLED LIVING SPACE
• UPDATED FLOORING
• MODERN FIXTURES
• OPEN LAYOUT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot features on a 0.0866-acre lot; Lot size approximately 3,772 sq ft; Directions available to property
• Financial info: Land lease: No (land lease amount listed separately)
• HOA & community: No association; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Natural gas connected; Public water; Public sewer; 220V in laundry
• Home design: Manufactured in park (double wide); Champion make; Built in 2016
• Construction: Aluminum skirting; Shingle/composition roof
• Exterior features: Backyard; Close to clubhouse; Garden; Storage/outbuilding/shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Breakfast area; Breakfast nook; Dining bar
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (possible 4th bedroom)
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Shower stall(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Covered patio and porch; Storage area; Porch; Pets allowed with size limits; Furnished negotiable; Breakfast nook and dining bar; Breakfast area
• Laundry & utility: Washer included; Dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $954 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.1% vs local median 2.0% in Grass Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#134 in CA, #4,710 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, cost of living F.
• Nevada Joint Union High (town): math 25% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #201 of 517 in CA (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 197 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 215 units permitted in Nevada County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nevada County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.4% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 141 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 141 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.73% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.46%
• DSCR: 2.40
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $104,544
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
970 Laurel Ln	0.14mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (-3%)	3mo	$38,000	$33	81
1519 Redwood Dr	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (+1%)	11mo	$105,000	$88	78
1529 Redwood Dr #165	0.14mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,152 (-3%)	6mo	$55,000	$48	76
1536 Mulberry Dr	0.15mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (-3%)	10mo	$135,000	$117	75
1567 Mulberry Dr	0.16mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (+5%)	12mo	$95,000	$76	69
1025 Amber Loop #1025	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,042 (-12%)	4mo	$129,200	$124	67
1616 Mulberry Dr	0.22mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,080 (-9%)	22mo	$124,000	$115	51
1097 Pampas Dr	0.10mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,020 (-14%)	16mo	$40,000	$39	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.38% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.93×
• Total profit: $33,899
• Equity at exit: $19,369

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.34×
• Total profit: $85,198
• Equity at exit: $11,231

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95945

• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 197
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,246 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$86 /mo · $1,027/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $954

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,039

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 53%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
126 W Berryhill Dr Grass Valley, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	797	$2,325	$2.92	1d	7	1.06mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $129,900 Active 141 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 140 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 139 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 138 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 137 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $129,900 Active 135 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 134 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $129,900 Active 132 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,900 Active 131 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $129,900 Active 130 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,900 Active 129 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $129,900 Active 126 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,900 Active 125 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,900 Active 124 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,900 Active 123 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active 122 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $129,900 Active 121 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,027 · $86/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,027 · $86/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 40 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,953
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$1,027
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,156
• − Management: −$2,156
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable income: $9,909
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,378
• After-tax cash flow: $9,064/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nevada Joint Union High
• NCES district ID: 0626880
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $57,336
• Composite: 37.53/100
• National rank: #4393
• State rank: #201 of 517 in CA

Livability — Grass Valley

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #134
• US rank: #4710

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment D+ Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Grass Valley, CA
• County: Nevada County · 85,339 people
• City population: 48,022
• Metro: Truckee-Grass Valley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 27,470
• Household income: $65,989
• Rent vs Own: 42.2% rent · 57.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1624.0

Population outlook (Nevada County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 98,490 people
• By 2030: 97,295 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 92,041 · -6.5%
• By 2050: 85,164 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 68,436 · -30.5%
• By 2100: 49,536 · -49.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 7% Arabic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nevada

• 2024 margin: D (+12.2) · D 54.4% · R 42.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 5.3pp · 2024: 12.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.2 2020: D+14.8 2016: D+4.5 2012: R+4.7 2008: D+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -191.74%
• Current HPI: 253.8946
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.38%
• Metro: Truckee-Grass Valley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,027 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.