127 Fetlock Dr Unit 122 Hemlock Farms Hawley, PA 184218 · Hemlock Farms, PA 18428

$299,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,648 sqft · SingleFamily · 141 Days on market

Built 1985 Fair condition 0.59 ac lot $181/sqft · at area comps Est $311k · at est. $250/mo HOA · 6% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.4/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +9.3/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

One Floor Living in the well-kept ranch. Come see the charming home located in Hemlock Farms featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 baths with large dinning/kitchen, big living room with lots of windows and free-standing wood stove, fenced in back yard, and a screen porch. Nice set on about 1/2 acre you will find this home to be a private retreat in the woods.

Key facts

• Well-kept ranch
• Fenced in back yard
• Private retreat

Tags

• FENCED IN BACK YARD
• SCREEN PORCH
• PRIVATE RETREAT
• WELL-KEPT RANCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $299k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $299k).
• Recommended offer: $263k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 7.1% in Hemlock Farms — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#884 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Wallenpaupack Area SD (rural): math 39% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #192 of 539 in PA (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 374 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $84k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 141 days — a 12% lower offer ($263k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $263,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 141 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.22%
• DSCR: 1.68
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $311,496
• List price: $299,000
• Delta: -4.01%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
106 Fetlock Dr	0.20mi	3/3.0	1,700 (+3%)	7mo	$255,000	$150	75
803 Lariat Ct	0.24mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,588 (-4%)	8mo	$190,000	$120	70
804 Rowel Ct	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,536 (-7%)	18mo	$189,900	$124	64
803 Fetlock Ct	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,837 (+12%)	7mo	$290,000	$158	63
800 Osprey Ct	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,568 (-5%)	9mo	$310,000	$198	56
109 Canterbrook Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,536 (-7%)	11mo	$275,000	$179	54
118 Ledgeway Ln	0.73mi	3/2.5	1,716 (+4%)	8mo	$399,999	$233	50
123 Goldrush Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,778 (+8%)	10mo	$370,000	$208	47
114 Heron Bay Rd	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,816 (+10%)	19mo	$320,000	$176	46
121 Canterbrook Dr	0.64mi	3/1.5	1,892 (+15%)	1mo	$285,000	$151	42
107 Canterbrook Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,860 (+13%)	20mo	$329,000	$177	37
202 Waterview Dr	0.71mi	3/2.5	1,882 (+14%)	18mo	$360,000	$191	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 35.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.76×
• Total profit: $230,712
• Equity at exit: $269,363

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.6%
• Equity multiple: 8.48×
• Total profit: $626,643
• Equity at exit: $580,891

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18428

• Home prices YoY: 9.2%
• Active inventory: 374
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,277 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$374 /mo · $4,485/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$250
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$898
• Net cashflow: $1,062

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,932

Max offer price $299,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,269	-5% $1,165	+0% $1,062	+5% $959	+10% $856
Rent	-10% $724	-5% $893	+0% $1,062	+5% $1,231	+10% $1,400
Rate	-1.0pp $1,213	-0.5pp $1,138	base $1,062	+0.5pp $985	+1.0pp $906

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
101 Pommel Dr Hawley, PA	3.0	2.0	1691	$4,400	$2.60	2d	1	0.17mi
106 Corral Ln Hawley, PA	3.0	2.0	2150	$4,000	$1.86	5d	1	1.05mi
402 Canoe Brook Dr Hawley, PA	3.0	2.0	2055	$3,500	$1.70	0d	1	1.28mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $250 · $3,000/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $299,000 Active 141 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,000 Active 138 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,000 Active 137 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,000 Active 136 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,000 Active 135 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,000 Active 133 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,000 Active 132 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,000 Active 129 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,000 Active 128 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,000 Active 127 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $299,000 Active 124 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,000 Active 123 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,000 Active 122 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,000 Active 121 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,000 Active 120 DOM
16. 2026-05-09
    status Active 347-char remark

    Show marketing remark (347 chars)

    One Floor Living in the well-kept ranch. Come see the charming home located in Hemlock Farms featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 baths with large dinning/kitchen, big living room with lots of windows and free-standing wood stove, fenced in back yard, and a screen porch. Nice set on about 1/2 acre you will find this home to be a private retreat in the woods.

17. 2026-05-09
    price $299,000 347-char remark

    Show marketing remark (347 chars)

    One Floor Living in the well-kept ranch. Come see the charming home located in Hemlock Farms featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 baths with large dinning/kitchen, big living room with lots of windows and free-standing wood stove, fenced in back yard, and a screen porch. Nice set on about 1/2 acre you will find this home to be a private retreat in the woods.

18. 2026-04-17
    status Pending 347-char remark

    Show marketing remark (347 chars)

    One Floor Living in the well-kept ranch. Come see the charming home located in Hemlock Farms featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 baths with large dinning/kitchen, big living room with lots of windows and free-standing wood stove, fenced in back yard, and a screen porch. Nice set on about 1/2 acre you will find this home to be a private retreat in the woods.

19. 2026-01-09
    listed $315,000 Active 347-char remark

    Show marketing remark (347 chars)

    One Floor Living in the well-kept ranch. Come see the charming home located in Hemlock Farms featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 baths with large dinning/kitchen, big living room with lots of windows and free-standing wood stove, fenced in back yard, and a screen porch. Nice set on about 1/2 acre you will find this home to be a private retreat in the woods.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $51,319
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$4,485
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,106
• − Management: −$4,106
• − HOA: −$3,000
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable income: $8,681
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,083
• After-tax cash flow: $10,663/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 17 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This single-family home in Hemlock Farms, PA is in fair condition with some moderate repairs and maintenance needed. The home has 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and is situated on a half-acre lot. The home's location in the woods provides a private retreat, but it needs updates to its kitchen and bathrooms to increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate kitchen cabinets — dated and in need of updating
• Moderate bathroom fixtures — dated and in need of updating
• Moderate kitchen flooring — dated and in need of updating
• Moderate bathroom flooring — dated and in need of updating

Value-add opportunities

• Resale update kitchen cabinets and appliances — modernizing the kitchen will attract more buyers
• Resale update bathrooms with new fixtures and flooring — modernizing the bathrooms will attract more buyers
• Both paint interior walls — painting interior walls will improve the home's appearance and value
• Both replace carpeting with hardwood or tile — replacing carpeting with hardwood or tile will improve the home's appearance and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · dated and in need of updating	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
bathroom fixtures · dated and in need of updating	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
kitchen flooring · dated and in need of updating	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
bathroom flooring · dated and in need of updating	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$12,000–60,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale update kitchen cabinets and appliances — modernizing the kitchen will attract more buyers ↑
• Resale update bathrooms with new fixtures and flooring — modernizing the bathrooms will attract more buyers ↑
• Both paint interior walls — painting interior walls will improve the home's appearance and value ↑
• Both replace carpeting with hardwood or tile — replacing carpeting with hardwood or tile will improve the home's appearance and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wallenpaupack Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4224750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,027
• Composite: 41.97/100
• National rank: #3345
• State rank: #192 of 539 in PA

Livability — Hemlock Farms

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #884
• US rank: #9421

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hemlock Farms, PA
• Population (ZIP): 12,446

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,548 people
• By 2030: 51,622 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 46,490 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 40,372 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 31,951 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 26,821 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Portuguese 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 28.60%
• Current HPI: 340.8254
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-5.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Relisted — PWMLS
• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $299,000 PWMLS
• 2026-04-17 Pending — PWMLS
• 2026-01-09 Listed $315,000 PWMLS