124 Lincoln Ave Ave NW · Sidney, MT 59270

$139,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,539 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 113 Days on market

Built 1916 7,000 sqft lot Est $246k · 44% under ↓ 35% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Enclosed back porch
• Spacious kitchen
• Flexible bonus room

Tags

• FLEXIBLE BONUS ROOM
• ENCLOSED FRONT PORCH
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• ENCLOSED BACK PORCH
• SEPARATE STORAGE PANTRY ROOM
• FENCED FRONT AND BACK YARDS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No on-site parking listed
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two-story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt shingle roof; Crawl space foundation; Built area above grade: 2,356
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Corner, level lot; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Electric range; Free-standing range; Oven; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Freezer
• Bedrooms: One main-level bedroom
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (one on main level)
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas forced-air heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Pantry; Fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-28 ($-340/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $134k (3.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $117k (16.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $117k (16.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#37 in MT, #4,485 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Sidney H S (town): math 35% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #149 of 339 in MT (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 7 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Richland County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 113 days — a 9% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1916 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $116,504 (16.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 113 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1916 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.87%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $246,283
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
420 S Lincoln Ave S	0.35mi	3/2.0 (+1)	2,456 (-3%)	21mo	$238,000	$97	56
625 8th Ave SW	0.49mi	3/1.0 (+1)	2,184 (-14%)	3mo	$178,000	$82	43
406 6th St SE	0.70mi	2/1.5	2,232 (-12%)	22mo	$269,000	$121	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-24,319
• Equity at exit: $20,725

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-23,459
• Equity at exit: $12,018

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Montana: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; no rent control; preempted; rural-skewed market.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 59270

• Active inventory: 7
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,165 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$162 /mo · $1,942/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$245
• Net cashflow: $-28

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,201

Max offer price $133,993

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,000 Active 113 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,000 Active 112 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,000 Active 111 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,000 Active 110 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $139,000 Active 108 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,000 Active 107 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $139,000 Active 105 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,000 Active 104 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,000 Active 103 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,000 Active 102 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $139,000 Active 99 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,000 Active 98 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    price $139,000 Active 97 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,000 Active 97 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,000 Active 96 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,000 Active 95 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,000 Active 94 DOM
18. 2026-04-20
    price $149,000
19. 2026-03-17
    price $154,000
20. 2026-03-11
    status Active
21. 2026-03-05
    historical
22. 2026-02-18
    listed $164,000 Active
23. 2025-06-25
    listed $179,900 Active
24. 2024-10-31
    price $193,800
25. 2024-10-17
    price $209,900
26. 2024-09-11
    price $229,900
27. 2007-05-22
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MT · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,942 · $162/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,942 · $162/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,980
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$1,942
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,118
• − Management: −$1,118
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable loss: −$2,724
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$654
• After-tax cash flow: $314/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sidney H S
• NCES district ID: 3024230
• Math proficiency: 35% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $60,761
• Composite: 35.97/100
• National rank: #9546
• State rank: #149 of 339 in MT

Livability — Sidney

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #4485

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sidney, MT
• County: Richland County · 8,571 people
• City population: 8,571
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 8,571
• Household income: $72,630
• Rent vs Own: 36.2% rent · 63.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 25.0

Population outlook (Richland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 16,895 people
• By 2030: 19,713 · +16.7%
• By 2040: 25,884 · +53.2%
• By 2050: 32,631 · +93.1%
• By 2075: 50,915 · +201.4%
• By 2100: 65,767 · +289.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 6% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 19% Slovak 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Richland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.0) · D 14.7% · R 82.6% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.1pp toward R · 2008: -43.9pp · 2024: -68.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.0 2020: R+67.7 2016: R+66.8 2012: R+54.0 2008: R+43.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -149.09%
• Current HPI: 118.0931
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.41%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology / Analytics	1	$2B

Price history

-35.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $149,000 BMTMLS
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $154,000 BMTMLS
• 2026-03-11 Relisted — BMTMLS
• 2026-03-05 Delisted — BMTMLS
• 2026-02-18 Listed $164,000 BMTMLS
• 2025-06-25 Listed $179,900 BMTMLS
• 2024-10-31 Price Changed $193,800 BMTMLS
• 2024-10-17 Price Changed $209,900 BMTMLS
• 2024-09-11 Price Changed $229,900 BMTMLS
• 2007-05-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+10.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,942 · -35.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.