952 Kings Crown Dr · Sanibel, FL 33957

$1,295,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,944 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 138 Days on market

Built 1974 0.25 ac lot Est $1407k · 8% under $8/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.1/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Shell Harbor for under $800K !!! Ground level canal home with dock being offered "As Is" for less than lot price. This home used to feature 4 bedrooms and 3 baths. Let your imagination take over for what you could accomplish here. Shell Harbor is The neighborhood on Sanibel with gulf access canals and private beach access that accommodates ample parking for all at just $70 a year. This home was impacted by Ian and is undergoing mitigation. Rebuild your Dream home in this wonderful island Oasis.

Key facts

• Deeded beach access
• Canal front home
• Spacious kitchen

Tags

• CANAL FRONT HOME
• DEEDED BEACH ACCESS
• PRIVATE PARKING
• BRIGHT OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• BREAKFAST BAR

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Private heated in-ground pool with electric heat, pool equipment, outside bath access and screen enclosure; Waterfront property with canal access, navigable water and seawall; Lot is rectangular with paved road access and municipal irrigation; Property exposure to the east (lot) and home faces west
• Financial info: Pets allowed
• HOA & community: Annual association fee ($100); Association maintains recreation facilities; Community offers boat facilities and is non-gated; Association amenities include beach rights, beach access, boat dock, boat ramp, and management

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 covered spaces; Driveway parking; Paved access; Garage door opener
• Security: High-impact doors; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property; West-facing; Has view
• Construction: Block, concrete and stucco construction; Tile roof; Single-story construction
• Exterior features: Lanai; Patio; Porch; Screened porch/lanai; Patio with screened enclosure; Shutters (manual); Sprinkler/irrigation system; Security/high-impact doors; Smoke detectors

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Icemaker; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Refrigerator with ice maker
• Bedrooms: Includes bedrooms (split bedroom layout)
• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms; Shower-only with separate shower; Dual sinks
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric); Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Furnished; Breakfast bar; Dual sinks; Entrance foyer; Combined living and dining area; Shower-only bathroom with separate shower; Cable TV; Window treatments; Home office; Split bedroom floorplan; Display windows; Single-hung and sliding windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Indoor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $1.29M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5k ($64k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($18k rent vs $1.29M).
• Recommended offer: $1.14M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.6% vs local median 3.8% in Sanibel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#541 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 526 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $9k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $39k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $363k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 138 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.14M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $100k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $799k; list at $1.29M implies a 62% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,139,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 138 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.11%
• DSCR: 1.85
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,407,456
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
739 Anchor Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,209 (+14%)	0mo	$1,600,000	$724	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.36×
• Total profit: $131,092
• Equity at exit: $193,089

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.53×
• Total profit: $554,064
• Equity at exit: $111,968

Cash invested: $362,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33957

• Home prices YoY: -15.7%
• Active inventory: 526
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $18,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,791
• Tax from tax record: −$1,265 /mo · $15,178/yr
• Insurance: −$540
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,822
• Net cashflow: $5,348

Break-even live

Break-even rent $11,430

Max offer price $1,295,000

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $323,750
• Closing costs: $38,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
424 Lagoon Dr Sanibel, FL	3.0	2.0	1704	$18,200	$10.68	23d	1	0.60mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,295,000 Active 138 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,295,000 Active 137 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,295,000 Active 136 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,295,000 Active 134 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $1,295,000 Active 131 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,295,000 Active 130 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,295,000 Active 128 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $1,295,000 Active 123 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $1,295,000 Active 122 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,295,000 Active 121 DOM
11. 2026-02-27
    price $1,295,000
12. 2026-01-30
    listed $1,395,000 Active
13. 2022-12-09
    soldstatus $799,222
14. 2022-12-05
    soldstatus $799,222 Closed 509-char remark

    Show marketing remark (509 chars)

    Shell Harbor for under $800K !!! Ground level canal home with dock being offered "As Is" for less than lot price. This home used to feature 4 bedrooms and 3 baths. Let your imagination take over for what you could accomplish here. Shell Harbor is The neighborhood on Sanibel with gulf access canals and private beach access that accommodates ample parking for all at just $70 a year. This home was impacted by Ian and is undergoing mitigation. Rebuild your Dream home in this wonderful island Oasis.

15. 2022-11-11
    status Pending 509-char remark

    Show marketing remark (509 chars)

    Shell Harbor for under $800K !!! Ground level canal home with dock being offered "As Is" for less than lot price. This home used to feature 4 bedrooms and 3 baths. Let your imagination take over for what you could accomplish here. Shell Harbor is The neighborhood on Sanibel with gulf access canals and private beach access that accommodates ample parking for all at just $70 a year. This home was impacted by Ian and is undergoing mitigation. Rebuild your Dream home in this wonderful island Oasis.

16. 2022-11-11
    listed $799,222 Active 509-char remark

    Show marketing remark (509 chars)

    Shell Harbor for under $800K !!! Ground level canal home with dock being offered "As Is" for less than lot price. This home used to feature 4 bedrooms and 3 baths. Let your imagination take over for what you could accomplish here. Shell Harbor is The neighborhood on Sanibel with gulf access canals and private beach access that accommodates ample parking for all at just $70 a year. This home was impacted by Ian and is undergoing mitigation. Rebuild your Dream home in this wonderful island Oasis.

17. 2006-05-03
    soldstatus $1,250,000
18. 2006-05-01
    soldstatus $1,250,000 553-char remark

    Show marketing remark (553 chars)

    Imagine sitting on your pool deck while looking at intersecting canals, the privacy of mangroves dancing in the breeze, and your boat sitting on a 10,000 lb. lift next to a sea walled canal and brick paver dock. Also imagine walking into the bright and cheery 4 bedroom 3 bathroom home, featuring tile floors and beautiful views of the canal from almost every room, to grab a towel for an afternoon dip in your large pool. Or, imagine driving or biking to one of the nicest neighborhood beach accesses on all of Sanibel. Now imagine all of this is only.

19. 2006-03-13
    price $1,395,000 553-char remark

    Show marketing remark (553 chars)

    Imagine sitting on your pool deck while looking at intersecting canals, the privacy of mangroves dancing in the breeze, and your boat sitting on a 10,000 lb. lift next to a sea walled canal and brick paver dock. Also imagine walking into the bright and cheery 4 bedroom 3 bathroom home, featuring tile floors and beautiful views of the canal from almost every room, to grab a towel for an afternoon dip in your large pool. Or, imagine driving or biking to one of the nicest neighborhood beach accesses on all of Sanibel. Now imagine all of this is only.

20. 2005-04-04
    soldstatus $1,082,500
21. 2000-01-24
    soldstatus $500,000
22. 1984-01-01
    soldstatus $235,000
23. 1973-06-01
    soldstatus $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $15,178 · $1,265/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $15,178 · $1,265/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥113°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $218,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$72,540
• − Property taxes: −$15,178
• − Insurance: −$11,594
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$17,472
• − Management: −$17,472
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$37,673
• Taxable income: $46,376
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$11,130
• After-tax cash flow: $53,045/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Sanibel

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #541
• US rank: #10166

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing D+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sanibel, FL
• City population: 6,402
• Population (ZIP): 6,402

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Romanian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.08%
• Current HPI: 501.0
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+6375.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $1,295,000 FORTMLS
• 2026-01-30 Listed $1,395,000 FORTMLS
• 2022-12-09 Sold (Public Records) $799,222 Public Records
• 2022-12-05 Sold (MLS) $799,222 FORTMLS
• 2022-11-11 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2022-11-11 Listed $799,222 FORTMLS
• 2006-05-03 Sold (Public Records) $1,250,000 Public Records
• 2006-05-01 Sold (MLS) $1,250,000 FORTMLS
• 2006-03-13 Price Changed $1,395,000 FORTMLS
• 2005-04-04 Sold (Public Records) $1,082,500 Public Records
• 2000-01-24 Sold (Public Records) $500,000 Public Records
• 1984-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $235,000 Public Records
• 1973-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $15,178 · +9.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.