7318 Osage Dr · Bayonet Point, FL 34667

$154,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · Manufactured public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1986 4,200 sqft lot Est $148k · at est. $20/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.1/30.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• ARV discount +5.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Super nice 2 bedroom 2 bath double wide home in Awesome Ponderosa Park!! Arguably the best 55+ Mobile Home Community in Pasco County where the HOA dues are only $250/year!! This beautifully kept haven has a great layout, with open living space, airy 4-season lanai, vaulted ceilings, big primary bed/bath with huge closet, great carport with laundry shed, easy care pebble lawn, and much more. Comes with furniture (ask for short list of exclusions), linens, dishes and towels, so bring your toothbrush and start living the dream today!! Oh. .. roof was new in 2018, and AC & water heater new in 2019. What are ya waitin' for??

Key facts

• Low hoa fees
• Bright florida room
• Built-in hutch

Tags

• LOW HOA FEES
• SPACIOUS OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• BRIGHT FLORIDA ROOM
• EAT-IN COUNTERTOP
• BUILT-IN HUTCH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total acreage: approximately 0.1 acre; Asphalt road access
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA 'Mary Lou' with required approval; HOA fee $250 annually (about $20.83/month); Community clubhouse; Community pool; Deed restrictions; Senior community; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water connected; Public sewer connected; Electricity connected; Cable available
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; One story; Faces south
• Construction: Metal siding; Metal and shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Covered patio; Rain gutters; Sliding doors; Storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator; Wine refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Open floor plan; Walk-in closets; Window treatments (blinds, drapes)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater; Laundry features: Other

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $324 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $150k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 5.3% in Bayonet Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#485 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities D+, schools F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.3%/yr); 790 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,349 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.80%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $148,500
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7310 Stillwater Dr	0.06mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,144 (+4%)	5mo	$90,000	$79	82
12343 Lariat Way	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,068 (-3%)	13mo	$165,000	$154	82
12119 Bonanza Dr	0.20mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (-4%)	1mo	$120,000	$114	78
12210 Bonanza Dr	0.14mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (-4%)	12mo	$178,500	$169	72
12201 Bonanza Dr	0.17mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (-4%)	11mo	$142,500	$135	71
7308 Osage Dr	0.05mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,188 (+8%)	13mo	$175,000	$147	68
7301 Osage Dr	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (+14%)	4mo	$148,000	$119	65
7309 Blue Lake Dr	0.18mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (-13%)	4mo	$115,000	$120	62
12110 Bonanza Dr	0.24mi	2/2.0 (-1)	962 (-12%)	2mo	$90,000	$94	61
7412 Grand Pine Dr	0.12mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (-13%)	12mo	$145,000	$151	59
7318 Allyson St	0.61mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,080 (-2%)	11mo	$145,000	$134	54
7303 Blue Lake Dr	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (-13%)	13mo	$165,000	$172	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-9,744
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-2,290
• Equity at exit: $13,401

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34667

• Rents YoY: -2.3%
• Active inventory: 790
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,820 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$150 /mo · $1,800/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$20
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$382
• Net cashflow: $324

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,410

Max offer price $154,999

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7433 Greystone Dr #7433 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1029	$1,300	$1.26	17d	1	0.25mi
7616 Danube Dr Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1125	$1,350	$1.20	24d	1	0.30mi
12702 Social Dr Hudson, FL	2.0	1.0	1032	$1,500	$1.45	4d	1	0.33mi
7602 Danube Dr Unit 7602 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1125	$1,600	$1.42	24d	1	0.33mi
12041 Hoosier Ct #204 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1103	$1,495	$1.36	24d	1	0.46mi
12041 Hoosier Ct #204 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1103	$1,495	$1.36	17d	1	0.46mi
12027 Hoosier Ct #203 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1103	$1,550	$1.41	24d	1	0.47mi
12809 College Hill Dr Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1114	$1,780	$1.60	4d	1	0.48mi
7300 Country Club Dr Hudson, FL	2.0	1.0	926	$1,400	$1.51	2d	1	0.50mi
11902 Oceanside Dr Port Richey, FL	4.0	2.0	1200	$1,800	$1.50	2d	1	0.64mi
7539 Gulf Highlands Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.5	936	$1,550	$1.66	4d	1	0.78mi
12535 3rd Isle Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1389	$2,600	$1.87	24d	1	0.81mi
7924 Halsey Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,800	$1.42	21d	1	0.84mi
7924 Halsey Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,800	$1.42	4d	1	0.84mi
7608 Sue Ellen Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1310	$2,400	$1.83	24d	1	0.88mi
7715 Sue Ellen Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1080	$1,495	$1.38	3d	1	0.89mi
12200 Hudson Ridge Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1107	$1,704	$1.54	2d	10	0.90mi
11610 Meadow Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1128	$1,570	$1.39	12d	1	0.93mi
11611 Constance Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	984	$1,540	$1.57	11d	1	0.94mi
11611 Constance Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	984	$1,540	$1.57	24d	1	0.94mi
11630 Paige Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,680	$1.46	12d	1	0.94mi
7530 Judith Cres Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1446	$2,200	$1.52	24d	1	0.95mi
7530 Judith Cres Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1446	$1,695	$1.17	20d	1	0.95mi
8304 Mill Creek Ln Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,650	$1.65	24d	1	0.95mi
7804 Topay Ln Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,811	$1.61	4d	1	0.98mi
8312 Mill Creek Ln Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1152	$1,600	$1.39	24d	1	1.00mi
7520 Hawthorn Dr Unit NA Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1303	$1,900	$1.46	24d	1	1.03mi
7520 Hawthorn Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1303	$1,800	$1.38	23d	1	1.03mi
7531 Greybirch Ter Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,000	$1.43	24d	1	1.05mi
13128 Beacon Ct Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1070	$1,600	$1.50	24d	1	1.13mi
8305 Sandwedge Cir Unit A Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1144	$1,450	$1.27	21d	1	1.13mi
11241 Yewtree Ave Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1306	$1,950	$1.49	23d	1	1.16mi
13315 Neptune Dr Hudson, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$2,000	$2.22	24d	1	1.19mi
7213 Seward Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$1,500	$2.14	24d	1	1.22mi
7540 Venice Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1394	$1,775	$1.27	4d	1	1.23mi
6731 Sandra Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	816	$1,575	$1.93	24d	1	1.24mi
11103 Harding Dr Unit 2 Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	760	$1,450	$1.91	19d	1	1.29mi
13428 Neptune Dr Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1258	$2,450	$1.95	24d	1	1.29mi
8161 Braddock Cir #1 Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,595	$1.59	17d	1	1.30mi
7705 Ilex Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1349	$2,000	$1.48	24d	1	1.31mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $20 · $240/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-12
   listed $154,999 Active
3. 2025-05-02
   soldstatus $155,000
4. 2025-04-25
   soldstatus $155,000 Closed 637-char remark

   Show marketing remark (637 chars)

   Super nice 2 bedroom 2 bath double wide home in Awesome Ponderosa Park!! Arguably the best 55+ Mobile Home Community in Pasco County where the HOA dues are only $250/year!! This beautifully kept haven has a great layout, with open living space, airy 4-season lanai, vaulted ceilings, big primary bed/bath with huge closet, great carport with laundry shed, easy care pebble lawn, and much more. Comes with furniture (ask for short list of exclusions), linens, dishes and towels, so bring your toothbrush and start living the dream today!! Oh. .. roof was new in 2018, and AC & water heater new in 2019. What are ya waitin' for??

5. 2025-02-11
   status Pending 637-char remark

   Show marketing remark (637 chars)

   Super nice 2 bedroom 2 bath double wide home in Awesome Ponderosa Park!! Arguably the best 55+ Mobile Home Community in Pasco County where the HOA dues are only $250/year!! This beautifully kept haven has a great layout, with open living space, airy 4-season lanai, vaulted ceilings, big primary bed/bath with huge closet, great carport with laundry shed, easy care pebble lawn, and much more. Comes with furniture (ask for short list of exclusions), linens, dishes and towels, so bring your toothbrush and start living the dream today!! Oh. .. roof was new in 2018, and AC & water heater new in 2019. What are ya waitin' for??

6. 2025-02-07
   listed $159,500 Active 637-char remark

   Show marketing remark (637 chars)

   Super nice 2 bedroom 2 bath double wide home in Awesome Ponderosa Park!! Arguably the best 55+ Mobile Home Community in Pasco County where the HOA dues are only $250/year!! This beautifully kept haven has a great layout, with open living space, airy 4-season lanai, vaulted ceilings, big primary bed/bath with huge closet, great carport with laundry shed, easy care pebble lawn, and much more. Comes with furniture (ask for short list of exclusions), linens, dishes and towels, so bring your toothbrush and start living the dream today!! Oh. .. roof was new in 2018, and AC & water heater new in 2019. What are ya waitin' for??

7. 2015-06-29
   soldstatus $66,000
8. 2009-02-10
   soldstatus $64,000
9. 2008-12-30
   soldstatus $64,000 475-char remark

   Show marketing remark (475 chars)

   Meticulous 2 BR/2 BA doublewide, vaulted ceilings, neutral decor - 2 year old refrigerator & smooth top range. Partially furnished. Master Suite has his and hers closets and compartmentalized bath. EZ care gravel yard. Huge carport, utilityshed w/ laundry hook-ups. Large vinyl enclosed porch. 5 Star park for 55+ offers heated pool, active clubhouse, game room, library. Low annual fee of $150. Close to shopping, restaurants, medical facilities etc. No known defects.

10. 2008-10-20
    listed $69,900 475-char remark

    Show marketing remark (475 chars)

    Meticulous 2 BR/2 BA doublewide, vaulted ceilings, neutral decor - 2 year old refrigerator & smooth top range. Partially furnished. Master Suite has his and hers closets and compartmentalized bath. EZ care gravel yard. Huge carport, utilityshed w/ laundry hook-ups. Large vinyl enclosed porch. 5 Star park for 55+ offers heated pool, active clubhouse, game room, library. Low annual fee of $150. Close to shopping, restaurants, medical facilities etc. No known defects.

11. 1985-12-01
    soldstatus $8,100
12. 1985-12-01
    soldstatus $8,100

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,800 · $150/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,800 · $150/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,846
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$1,800
• − Insurance: −$1,572
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,748
• − Management: −$1,748
• − HOA: −$240
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable income: $1,546
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$371
• After-tax cash flow: $3,520/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bayonet Point

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #485
• US rank: #8934

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bayonet Point, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 45,307
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 30,689
• Household income: $51,280
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 946.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -183.96%
• Current HPI: 307.5552
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.26%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1813.6% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-12 Listed $154,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-02 Sold (Public Records) $155,000 Public Records
• 2025-04-25 Sold (MLS) $155,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-11 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-07 Listed $159,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-06-29 Sold (Public Records) $66,000 Public Records
• 2009-02-10 Sold (Public Records) $64,000 Public Records
• 2008-12-30 Sold (MLS) $64,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-10-20 Listed $69,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1985-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $8,100 Public Records
• 1985-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $8,100 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,800 · +7.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.