1206 Concord St · Fredonia, IA 52738

$154,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 156 Days on market

Built 2024 8,712 sqft lot Est $220k · 30% under ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.0/30.0
• Appreciation +8.5/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your next chapter of comfortable living in this six-bedroom haven. This home brings together modern comfort and practical design, making it the perfect for your family. Step inside and discover six well-proportioned bedrooms, offering abundant space for everyone to carve out their own personal retreat. Two elegantly tiled bathrooms serve the home with style and efficiency, featuring contemporary fixtures and thoughtful layouts that make morning routines a breeze. The pristine condition of this home means you can skip the renovation phase and jump straight into making memories. What's particularly appealing about this home is its move-in ready status. No need to wait or worry about repairs - everything is fresh, clean, and waiting for your personal touch. The neutral palette throughout provides the perfect foundation for your decorating vision, whether your style leans traditional or contemporary. This home offers the rare combination of space and newness that today's families seek. With six bedrooms, you'll have plenty of room to grow, work, and live comfortably under one roof. Whether you're hosting extended family, setting up a home business, or simply enjoying the luxury of space, this home delivers on all fronts. Make an Appointment today!

Key facts

• 8,712 sq ft lot
• Built 2024
• Listed 155 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $154k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-122 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $133k (14.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $112k (27.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $112k (27.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#859 in IA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: crime D+, employment D+, health & safety D+.
• Columbus Community School District (rural): math 53% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #258 of 289 in IA (top 89%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 9 units permitted in Louisa County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (7.1% local appreciation)).
• Louisa County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $112,053 (27.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.39%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $220,500
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1312 8th Ave	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+4%)	8mo	$230,000	$147	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.07% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.08×
• Total profit: $46,824
• Equity at exit: $107,773

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.28×
• Total profit: $141,809
• Equity at exit: $205,365

Cash invested: $43,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 52738

• Home prices YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 16
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,121 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$810
• Tax from tax record: −$133 /mo · $1,592/yr
• Insurance: −$64
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$235
• Net cashflow: $-122

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,275

Max offer price $132,942

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,625
• Closing costs: $4,635
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $154,500 Active 156 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $154,500 Active 155 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $154,500 Active 154 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $154,500 Active 153 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $154,500 Active 151 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $154,500 Active 150 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $154,500 Active 147 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $154,500 Active 146 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $154,500 Active 145 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $154,500 Active 144 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $154,500 Active 141 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $154,500 Active 140 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $154,500 Active 139 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $154,500 Active 138 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $154,500 Active 137 DOM
16. 2026-01-13
    listed $154,500 Active 1275-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1275 chars)

    Welcome to your next chapter of comfortable living in this six-bedroom haven. This home brings together modern comfort and practical design, making it the perfect for your family. Step inside and discover six well-proportioned bedrooms, offering abundant space for everyone to carve out their own personal retreat. Two elegantly tiled bathrooms serve the home with style and efficiency, featuring contemporary fixtures and thoughtful layouts that make morning routines a breeze. The pristine condition of this home means you can skip the renovation phase and jump straight into making memories. What's particularly appealing about this home is its move-in ready status. No need to wait or worry about repairs - everything is fresh, clean, and waiting for your personal touch. The neutral palette throughout provides the perfect foundation for your decorating vision, whether your style leans traditional or contemporary. This home offers the rare combination of space and newness that today's families seek. With six bedrooms, you'll have plenty of room to grow, work, and live comfortably under one roof. Whether you're hosting extended family, setting up a home business, or simply enjoying the luxury of space, this home delivers on all fronts. Make an Appointment today!

17. 2025-08-25
    listed $154,500 Active
18. 2025-05-12
    listed $154,500 Active
19. 2025-04-28
    price $154,500
20. 2025-02-11
    listed $164,500 Active
21. 2024-11-06
    listed $164,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,592 · $133/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,009 · $167/mo
• Expected delta: +$417/yr (+$35/mo · 26.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,446
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,654
• − Property taxes: −$1,592
• − Insurance: −$772
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,076
• − Management: −$1,076
• − Depreciation: −$4,495
• Taxable loss: −$4,219
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,012
• After-tax cash flow: $-452/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Columbus Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1907980
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $47,844
• Composite: 47.95/100
• National rank: #2204
• State rank: #258 of 289 in IA

Livability — Fredonia

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #859
• US rank: #19894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D+ Housing B+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fredonia, IA
• Population (ZIP): 3,389

Population outlook (Louisa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,061 people
• By 2030: 10,869 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 10,400 · -6.0%
• By 2050: 9,878 · -10.7%
• By 2075: 9,425 · -14.8%
• By 2100: 9,584 · -13.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 8% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Iranian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 30% Other Asian/Pacific 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Louisa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+41.0) · D 28.8% · R 69.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -45.2pp toward R · 2008: 4.2pp · 2024: -41.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+41.0 2020: R+33.3 2016: R+28.7 2012: D+0.7 2008: D+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.07%
• Current HPI: 202.0796
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

-6.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-13 Listed $154,500 ICAARMLS
• 2025-08-25 Listed $154,500 ICAARMLS
• 2025-05-12 Listed $154,500 ICAARMLS
• 2025-04-28 Price Changed $154,500 ICAARMLS
• 2025-02-11 Listed $164,500 ICAARMLS
• 2024-11-06 Listed $164,500 ICAARMLS

Property tax history

+21.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,592 · +5.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.