269 E Golden Oaks Dr · Payne Springs, TX 75156

$84,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 57 Days on market

Built 2007 0.35 ac lot $63/sqft · 38% below area Est $138k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor special in Mabank ISD! Situated on approximately .3 acres, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home offers a great opportunity for those looking to add to their rental portfolio, take on a remodel project, or secure an affordable property with land. The home features a functional layout with a split-bedroom design, spacious living area, and plenty of outdoor space for future improvements, storage, or recreational use. With no HOA and room to make it your own, the possibilities here are wide open. Property is being sold as-is and is priced accordingly—cash only. Bring all offers!

Key facts

• Spacious living area
• Split-bedroom design
• Outdoor space

Tags

• APPROXIMATELY .3 ACRES
• SPLIT-BEDROOM DESIGN
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREA
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• NO HOA
• AFFORDABLE PROPERTY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $782 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $82k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.3% vs local median 3.9% in Payne Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#985 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Mabank ISD (town): math 47% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #273 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.8%/yr); 694 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $587 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 64% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $82,353 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.97% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.47%
• DSCR: 2.76
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $137,598
• List price: $84,900
• Delta: -38.30%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
269 E Golden Oaks Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,344 (0%)	1mo	$84,900	$63	99
188 Albany Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-10%)	10mo	$129,000	$106	64
18697 County Road 2529	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,450 (+8%)	4mo	$149,000	$103	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.31×
• Total profit: $31,145
• Equity at exit: $12,659

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.04×
• Total profit: $72,321
• Equity at exit: $7,341

Cash invested: $23,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75156

• Rents YoY: -5.8%
• Active inventory: 694
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,669 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$445
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $671/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$350
• Net cashflow: $782

Break-even live

Break-even rent $679

Max offer price $84,900

Occupancy floor 48%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,225
• Closing costs: $2,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
207 Woody Rd Mabank, TX	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,495	$0.95	44d	1	0.50mi
114 Timber Crst Mabank, TX	2.0	2.0	950	$1,300	$1.37	44d	1	1.22mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending 594-char remark

   Show marketing remark (594 chars)

   Investor special in Mabank ISD! Situated on approximately .3 acres, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home offers a great opportunity for those looking to add to their rental portfolio, take on a remodel project, or secure an affordable property with land. The home features a functional layout with a split-bedroom design, spacious living area, and plenty of outdoor space for future improvements, storage, or recreational use. With no HOA and room to make it your own, the possibilities here are wide open. Property is being sold as-is and is priced accordingly—cash only. Bring all offers!

2. 2026-03-22
   listed $84,900 Active 594-char remark

   Show marketing remark (594 chars)

   Investor special in Mabank ISD! Situated on approximately .3 acres, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home offers a great opportunity for those looking to add to their rental portfolio, take on a remodel project, or secure an affordable property with land. The home features a functional layout with a split-bedroom design, spacious living area, and plenty of outdoor space for future improvements, storage, or recreational use. With no HOA and room to make it your own, the possibilities here are wide open. Property is being sold as-is and is priced accordingly—cash only. Bring all offers!

3. 2004-06-10
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $671 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,554 · $129/mo
• Expected delta: +$883/yr (+$74/mo · 131.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 64% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,027
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,756
• − Property taxes: −$671
• − Insurance: −$424
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,602
• − Management: −$1,602
• − Depreciation: −$2,470
• Taxable income: $8,501
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,040
• After-tax cash flow: $7,342/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mabank ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828680
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,321
• Composite: 38.15/100
• National rank: #4267
• State rank: #273 of 826 in TX

Livability — Payne Springs

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #985
• US rank: #17539

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Henderson County · 34,977 people
• City population: 16,333
• Metro: Athens, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,333
• Household income: $60,867
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 400.0

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 7% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% European 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -216.77%
• Current HPI: 199.8108
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.76%
• Metro: Athens, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-03-22 Listed $84,900 NTREIS
• 2004-06-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $671 · +12.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.