517 Houston St · Newton, TX 75966

$185,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,050 sqft · SingleFamily · 29 Days on market

Built 1910 0.25 ac lot $90/sqft · 24% below area Est $245k · 24% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Appreciation +6.7/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully restored historic farmhouse in the heart of Newton offering timeless charm with thoughtful modern updates. Soaring 12-foot ceilings and original character create a warm, inviting atmosphere throughout. A wide central hallway leads to three spacious bedrooms and a large bath featuring a classic clawfoot tub with shower and double vanity. An additional flex space is ideal for a home office or future bath, with potential to expand into a second story. The expansive attic provides abundant storage or future living space. Situated on approximately half an acre, the property features a large, fenced backyard and relaxing back deck—perfect for entertaining or unwinding. Enjoy a peaceful country feel while being conveniently located within Newton city limits. A rare opportunity to own a piece of history ready for its next chapter.

Key facts

• Double vanity
• Expansive attic
• Flex space

Tags

• HISTORIC FARMHOUSE
• THOUGHTFUL MODERN UPDATES
• CLAWFOOT TUB
• DOUBLE VANITY
• FLEX SPACE
• EXPANSIVE ATTIC

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-253 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $148k (19.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (29.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $130k (29.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,355 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Newton ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #661 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.5% local appreciation)).
• Newton County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $129,811 (29.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.86%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $244,958
• List price: $185,000
• Delta: -24.48%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
709 S Houston St	0.11mi	3/2.5	2,084 (+2%)	7mo	$300,000	$144	80
105 Houston St	0.33mi	3/2.0	2,070 (+1%)	12mo	$199,000	$96	69

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.46% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $10,727
• Equity at exit: $88,008

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.07×
• Total profit: $55,315
• Equity at exit: $139,506

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75966

• Home prices YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 79
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,298 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$231 /mo · $2,775/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $-253

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,618

Max offer price $148,394

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-04-20
   listed $185,000 Active 852-char remark

   Show marketing remark (852 chars)

   Beautifully restored historic farmhouse in the heart of Newton offering timeless charm with thoughtful modern updates. Soaring 12-foot ceilings and original character create a warm, inviting atmosphere throughout. A wide central hallway leads to three spacious bedrooms and a large bath featuring a classic clawfoot tub with shower and double vanity. An additional flex space is ideal for a home office or future bath, with potential to expand into a second story. The expansive attic provides abundant storage or future living space. Situated on approximately half an acre, the property features a large, fenced backyard and relaxing back deck—perfect for entertaining or unwinding. Enjoy a peaceful country feel while being conveniently located within Newton city limits. A rare opportunity to own a piece of history ready for its next chapter.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 98% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,577
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$2,775
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,246
• − Management: −$1,246
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$6,360
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,526
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,509/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Newton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832730
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $34,557
• Composite: 24.26/100
• National rank: #7719
• State rank: #661 of 826 in TX

Livability — Newton

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #1355
• US rank: #23337

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Newton, TX
• Population (ZIP): 4,773

Population outlook (Newton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,123 people
• By 2030: 12,567 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 11,431 · -12.9%
• By 2050: 10,393 · -20.8%
• By 2075: 8,230 · -37.3%
• By 2100: 6,038 · -54.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 20% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Newton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.6) · D 16.6% · R 83.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.4pp toward R · 2008: -32.2pp · 2024: -66.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.6 2020: R+60.9 2016: R+49.5 2012: R+43.3 2008: R+32.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.46%
• Current HPI: 153.3331
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Listed $185,000 Deep East Texas MLS