2210 Fogel Rd · Lake of the Woods, IL 61853

$175,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,425 sqft · Other · 55 Days on market

Built 1890 $123/sqft · 17% below area Est $211k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.4/10.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Rare opportunity in the Mahomet School District at an unheard of price point! Situated on nearly an acre, 2210 Fogel offers endless potential for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to build sweat equity. This 3 bedroom, 1 bath home is a true fixer upper with incredible upside for the right buyer. The property features expansive outdoor space with multiple established areas for vegetables, fruit, gardening, or future outdoor projects. With strong future potential and priced aggressively at $175,000, this property is being sold as-is and is ready for its next chapter. Opportunities like this in Mahomet do not come along often.

Key facts

• New furnace
• Berry patches
• New a/c

Tags

• MATURE CHERRY AND PEACH TREES
• BERRY PATCHES
• HEN HOUSE
• NEW FURNACE
• NEW A/C
• 60X40 OUTBUILDING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property located in Mahomet corporate limits; directions available
• HOA & community: No master association fee required

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water service; Septic sewer; Natural gas; Electric service (standard)
• Home design: Detached single-family home; 1.5-story design; Fee simple ownership; Estimated living area
• Construction: Built over 100 years ago; Vinyl siding; Total finished area approximately 1,425 total (main ~985, upper ~440); No unfinished basement or lower-level square footage reported; Not rebuilt or rehabbed
• Exterior features: Lot dimensions approximately 110 x 60 x 218 x 26 x 146 x 220; Lot roughly 0.5–0.99 acre; Public water; Septic tank

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (main level, 13 x 16)
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (Master on main level; additional bedrooms on main and second levels)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: 7 rooms total; Bonus room (Second floor)
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room (8 x 8)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $499 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $170k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#574 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Mahomet-Seymour CUSD 3 (town): math 40% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #140 of 620 in IL (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Mahomet-Seymour Jr High School (math 38% / reading 34%, grade F, #182 of 665 statewide, top 28%, 810 students, 0% FRL); Mahomet-Seymour High School (math 53% / reading 50%, grade D+, #38 of 693 statewide, top 6%, 997 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 19% district-wide (19 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 132 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 573 units permitted in Champaign County in 2024 (359 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Champaign County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $175k implies a 133% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $169,750 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.21%
• DSCR: 1.54
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $211,160
• List price: $175,000
• Delta: -17.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $3,452
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.90×
• Total profit: $44,122
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61853

• Home prices YoY: -26.5%
• Active inventory: 132
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,209 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$256 /mo · $3,068/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$464
• Net cashflow: $499

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,578

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $175,000 Active 50 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $175,000 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,000 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $175,000 Active 44 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 39 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 38 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 37 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $175,000 Active 36 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    price $175,000 636-char remark
16. 2026-04-24
    listed $199,900 Active 636-char remark
17. 2026-04-24
    historical
18. 2026-03-13
    listed Active
19. 2009-06-23
    listed
20. 2009-06-23
    historical
21. 2009-02-28
    historical
22. 2008-06-24
    listed
23. 2004-04-01
    soldstatus $75,000
24. 2001-02-08
    soldstatus $46,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,068 · $256/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,520 · $293/mo
• Expected delta: +$452/yr (+$38/mo · 14.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,505
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$3,068
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,120
• − Management: −$2,120
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable income: $3,427
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$822
• After-tax cash flow: $5,160/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mahomet-Seymour CUSD 3
• NCES district ID: 1724060
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $73,748
• Composite: 34.72/100
• National rank: #5134
• State rank: #140 of 620 in IL

Livability — Lake of the Woods

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #574
• US rank: #12058

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake of the Woods, IL
• County: Champaign County · 182,148 people
• Metro: Champaign-Urbana, IL
• Population (ZIP): 14,831
• Household income: $115,512
• Rent vs Own: 16.5% rent · 83.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 163.0

Population outlook (Champaign County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 223,848 people
• By 2030: 231,416 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 244,321 · +9.1%
• By 2050: 256,432 · +14.6%
• By 2075: 285,823 · +27.7%
• By 2100: 296,406 · +32.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Iranian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Champaign

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.1) · D 61.3% · R 37.2% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.1 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+18.4 2012: D+6.8 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.54%
• Current HPI: 200.9388
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Champaign-Urbana, IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+280.4% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $175,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-24 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-24 Listed $199,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-13 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-06-23 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-06-23 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-02-28 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-06-24 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2001-02-08 Sold (Public Records) $46,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,068 · +5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.