Concord Plan · Balm, FL 33598

$369,490

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,580 sqft · SingleFamily · 154 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Appreciation +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Boasting two stories, the Concord is the largest single-family home in this collection. The first floor features a modern design with an open kitchen, living room and dining room, along with a versatile bedroom ideal for overnight guests. The second floor is home to four bedrooms, an adaptable loft and the spacious owner's suite.

Key facts

• Adaptable loft
• Versatile bedroom
• Open kitchen

Tags

• TWO STORIES
• OPEN KITCHEN
• VERSATILE BEDROOM
• ADAPTABLE LOFT
• SPACIOUS OWNER'S SUITE

🏗️ New construction. The $369,490 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $418,798.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $369k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-795 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $304k (17.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $266k (28.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $266k (28.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#742 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Wimauma Elementary School (math 31% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,882 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 543 students, 81% FRL); Shields Middle School (math 29% / reading 27%, grade F, #486 of 571 statewide, top 86%, 1,867 students, 68% FRL); Lennard High School (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #328 of 667 statewide, top 50%, 2,404 students, 47% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 32% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hillsborough average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 962 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($98k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.4%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 154 days — a 12% lower offer ($325k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $265,704 (28.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 154 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.14%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 13.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $418,798
• List price: $369,490
• Delta: -11.77%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15017 Crosshall Stream Dr	0.24mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,605 (+1%)	0mo	$418,798	$161	82
15102 Crosshall Stream Dr	0.35mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,605 (+1%)	5mo	$409,740	$157	73
13606 New Jade Ave	0.38mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,490 (-4%)	0mo	$393,990	$158	71
13610 New Jade Ave	0.38mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,490 (-4%)	0mo	$409,990	$165	71
14807 Grady Sweat Ln	0.79mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,786 (+8%)	3mo	$660,000	$237	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.35% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-114,692
• Equity at exit: $74,744

10-year hold

• IRR: -31.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.58×
• Total profit: $-184,885
• Equity at exit: $57,696

Cash invested: $117,263 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 16 active · 13 under contract
• Months of supply: 19.2 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $384,900 ($146/sqft)
• Median days on market: 195 d
• This list price: 19% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +10.8% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 33598

• Home prices YoY: -0.9%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 962
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,657 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,196
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$523 /mo · $6,282/yr
• Insurance: −$174
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$558
• Net cashflow: $-795

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,664

Max offer price $303,737

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-506	-5% $-650	+0% $-795	+5% $-940	+10% $-1,085
Rent	-10% $-1,005	-5% $-900	+0% $-795	+5% $-690	+10% $-585
Rate	-1.0pp $-584	-0.5pp $-689	base $-795	+0.5pp $-904	+1.0pp $-1,014

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $104,700
• Closing costs: $12,564
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located at 13606 Fenwick Stream Dr, Wimauma, FL 33598List price $369,490

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family residence (Concord plan)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2,580

Interior

• Bedrooms: 6 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Active new-construction plan (Concord)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $369,490 Active 154 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $369,490 Active 153 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $369,490 Active 152 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $369,490 Active 151 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $369,490 Active 150 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $369,490 Active 149 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $369,490 Active 148 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $369,490 Active 147 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $369,490 Active 146 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $369,490 Active 145 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $369,490 Active 144 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $369,490 Active 143 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $369,490 Active 142 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $369,490 Active 141 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $369,490 Active 135 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $369,490 Active 134 DOM
17. 2026-09-03
    days on market $369,490 Active 133 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $369,490 Active 130 DOM
19. 2026-08-30
    days on market $369,490 Active 129 DOM
20. 2026-08-29
    days on market $369,490 Active 128 DOM
21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $369,490 Active 127 DOM
22. 2026-08-27
    days on market $369,490 Active 126 DOM
23. 2026-08-26
    days on market $369,490 Active 125 DOM
24. 2026-08-25
    days on market $369,490 Active 124 DOM
25. 2026-08-24
    days on market $369,490 Active 123 DOM
26. 2026-08-23
    days on market $369,490 Active 122 DOM
27. 2026-08-22
    days on market $369,490 Active 121 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $369,490 Active 119 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $369,490 Active 118 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $369,490 Active 117 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $369,490 Active 116 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $369,490 Active 115 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $369,490 Active 114 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $369,490 Active 113 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $369,490 Active 112 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $369,490 Active 111 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $369,490 Active 110 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $369,490 Active 109 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $369,490 Active 108 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $369,490 Active 107 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $369,490 Active 105 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $369,490 Active 104 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $369,490 Active 103 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $369,490 Active 102 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $369,490 Active 99 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $369,490 Active 97 DOM
47. 2026-07-28
    days on market $369,490 Active 96 DOM
48. 2026-07-26
    days on market $369,490 Active 94 DOM
49. 2026-07-24
    days on market $369,490 Active 92 DOM
50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $369,490 Active 91 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,884
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,459
• − Property taxes: −$6,282
• − Insurance: −$2,094
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,551
• − Management: −$2,551
• − Depreciation: −$12,183
• Taxable loss: −$17,235
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,136
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,405/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This two-story home is in good condition with modern design and ample space. It has a clean exterior and well-maintained interior, making it a good investment for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Resale Replace the front door — A new front door can improve the home's curb appeal and security. ↑
• Rental Clean the gutters — Clean gutters can prevent water damage and improve the home's overall appearance. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 32/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Wimauma Elementary School F FL #1,882/2,144 Nat'l #26,438/41,679 Middle Shields Middle School F FL #486/571 Nat'l #9,545/14,009 High Lennard High School F FL #328/667 Nat'l #8,877/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

C Composite livability gradescore 63/100

Livability — Balm

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #742
• US rank: #16016

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Balm, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,607,022 people
• City population: 196
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 32,820
• Household income: $97,520
• Rent vs Own: 12.8% rent · 87.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

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Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 39% Black 14% Two or more races 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 35% Other Indo-European 1% Arabic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.35%
• Current HPI: 271.8552
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.50%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located at 13606 Fenwick Stream Dr, Wimauma, FL 33598List price $369,490

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family residence (Concord plan)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2,580

Interior

• Bedrooms: 6 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Active new-construction plan (Concord)