1310 Chance Ct · Anchorage, AK 99501

$519,000

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,560 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1968 6,975 sqft lot Est $430k · 21% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.5/30.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.1/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 3 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Tastefully remodeled Triplex w/ a 2023 Roof! Newer LVP flooring, interior/exterior paint, appliances, heating system, cabinets, fixtures, counter tops and back decks! Second floor units with decks and stairs leading to the backyard. Lots of natural light throughout. Large fenced in yard and storage shed. Plenty of parking space and a very ideal convenient and quiet location. This is a must see! Furniture remains with the top two units. Truly turn key!

Key facts

• Remodeled triplex
• New cabinets
• Newer tile flooring

Tags

• REMODELED TRIPLEX
• NEWER LAMINATE FLOORING
• NEWER TILE FLOORING
• NEW APPLIANCES
• NEW HEATING SYSTEM
• NEW CABINETS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Five open parking spaces; No garage or carport; no attached garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Multi-family property; Built in 1968; Block foundation
• Construction: Block foundation; Year built: 1968
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Lot about 0.16 acres

Interior

• Bedrooms: Six bedrooms (total)
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms
• Interior features: Total of 6 bedrooms; 3 full bathrooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $519k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $497 ($6k/yr) — positive. Per door: $166/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $496k (4.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $496k (4.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.8% in Anchorage — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#6 in AK, #2,553 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Anchorage School District (urban): math 37% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #6 of 21 in AK (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Dr. Etheldra Davis - Fairview Elementary School (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #153 of 156 statewide, top 100%, 384 students, 100% FRL); Central Middle School of Science (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #30 of 36 statewide, top 86%, 371 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools average 90% FRL vs 38% district-wide (52 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 17% at this address vs 40% district-wide (-23 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Anchorage School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 102 active listings in the ZIP; 306 units permitted in Anchorage Municipality in 2024 (90 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,959/mo this rent would consume 84% of the median local household income ($71k/yr) (locally 889% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Anchorage County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $495,900 (4.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.11%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $430,080
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1220 Nelchina St	0.24mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,380 (-7%)	22mo	$399,900	$168	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-41,663
• Equity at exit: $77,385

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.35×
• Total profit: $50,670
• Equity at exit: $44,874

Cash invested: $145,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99501

• Home prices YoY: -3.7%
• Rents YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 102
• Price-to-rent: 26.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,959 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,722
• Tax from tax record: −$483 /mo · $5,790/yr
• Insurance: −$216
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,041
• Net cashflow: $497

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,330

Max offer price $519,000

Occupancy floor 85%

3-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 3× units	2	1	$4,959
Total (3 units)			$4,959

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $129,750
• Closing costs: $15,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-03
   statusdays on market $519,000 Pending 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $519,000 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $519,000 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $519,000 Active 9 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $519,000 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-05-22
   listed $519,000 Active
7. 2022-06-06
   soldstatus
8. 2022-04-18
   status Pending
9. 2022-04-15
   listed $369,900 Active
10. 2016-01-15
    listed $334,900
11. 2007-11-05
    listed $199,900
12. 2007-06-15
    listed $339,900
13. 2007-04-10
    listed $329,000
14. 2006-11-21
    soldstatus
15. 2002-10-11
    soldstatus
16. 1994-03-25
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,790 · $483/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,983 · $499/mo
• Expected delta: +$193/yr (+$16/mo · 3.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $59,508
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,072
• − Property taxes: −$5,790
• − Insurance: −$2,595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,761
• − Management: −$4,761
• − Depreciation: −$15,098
• Taxable loss: −$2,569
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$616
• After-tax cash flow: $6,582/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Anchorage School District
• NCES district ID: 0200180
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $76,447
• Composite: 37.0/100
• National rank: #4523
• State rank: #6 of 21 in AK

Livability — Anchorage

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #2553

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Anchorage, AK
• County: Anchorage Borough · 246,594 people
• City population: 218,117
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• Population (ZIP): 16,175
• Household income: $70,891
• Rent vs Own: 62.8% rent · 37.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 889.0

Population outlook (Anchorage County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 314,993 people
• By 2030: 321,771 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 335,493 · +6.5%
• By 2050: 352,799 · +12.0%
• By 2075: 414,771 · +31.7%
• By 2100: 474,485 · +50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 11% Native American 9% Black 9% Asian 6% Pacific Islander 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 3% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Anchorage

• 2024 margin: D (+12.7) · D 56.3% · R 43.7%
• 2016→2024 swing: +27.9pp toward D · 2016: -15.2pp · 2024: 12.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.7 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -9.72%
• Current HPI: 251.948
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.12%
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+57.8% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $519,000 AKMLS
• 2022-06-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-04-18 Pending — AKMLS
• 2022-04-15 Listed $369,900 AKMLS
• 2016-01-15 Listed $334,900 AKMLS
• 2007-11-05 Listed $199,900 AKMLS
• 2007-06-15 Listed $339,900 AKMLS
• 2007-04-10 Listed $329,000 AKMLS
• 2006-11-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-10-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1994-03-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,790 · -3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.