407 Alphonse St · Abbeville, LA 70510

$78,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · Manufactured · 235 Days on market

0.50 ac lot $52/sqft · 85% above area ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

PRICED BELOW APPRAISAL and READY TO MOVE IN!!!This super clean 3 bedroom 2 bath is located near hospitals, schools and shopping areas at your convenience! There is an additional kitchen in the back, as well as a large covered patio to relax when you come home from work! Don't miss out and schedule today!

Key facts

• Additional kitchen
• Large covered patio
• 0.5 acre lot

Tags

• ADDITIONAL KITCHEN
• LARGE COVERED PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $78k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $309 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($984 rent vs $78k).
• Recommended offer: $69k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 6.6% in Abbeville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#94 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Vermilion Parish (town): math 40% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #15 of 98 in LA (top 15%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 180 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 228 units permitted in Vermilion Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $539 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Vermilion County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 235 days — a 12% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $68,640 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 235 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.00%
• DSCR: 1.76
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $42,144
• List price: $78,000
• Delta: 85.08%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $7,037
• Equity at exit: $11,630

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.44×
• Total profit: $31,385
• Equity at exit: $6,744

Cash invested: $21,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70510

• Active inventory: 180
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $984 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$409
• Tax from tax record: −$26 /mo · $315/yr
• Insurance: −$32
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$207
• Net cashflow: $309

Break-even live

Break-even rent $592

Max offer price $78,000

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,500
• Closing costs: $2,340
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
407 Nugier St Abbeville, LA	4.0	2.0	1374	$695	$0.51	43d	1	0.34mi
417 Marcia Ave Abbeville, LA	3.0	2.0	2000	$1,700	$0.85	21d	1	0.68mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $78,000 Active 235 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $78,000 Active 234 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $78,000 Active 233 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $83,000 Active 232 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $83,000 Active 230 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $83,000 Active 229 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $83,000 Active 227 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $83,000 Active 226 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $83,000 Active 225 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $83,000 Active 224 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $83,000 Active 220 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    price $83,000 Active 219 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 219 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 218 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 217 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $85,000 Active 216 DOM
17. 2026-02-16
    price $85,000 305-char remark

    Show marketing remark (305 chars)

    PRICED BELOW APPRAISAL and READY TO MOVE IN!!!This super clean 3 bedroom 2 bath is located near hospitals, schools and shopping areas at your convenience! There is an additional kitchen in the back, as well as a large covered patio to relax when you come home from work! Don't miss out and schedule today!

18. 2026-01-12
    price $90,000 305-char remark

    Show marketing remark (305 chars)

    PRICED BELOW APPRAISAL and READY TO MOVE IN!!!This super clean 3 bedroom 2 bath is located near hospitals, schools and shopping areas at your convenience! There is an additional kitchen in the back, as well as a large covered patio to relax when you come home from work! Don't miss out and schedule today!

19. 2025-11-28
    price $95,000 305-char remark

    Show marketing remark (305 chars)

    PRICED BELOW APPRAISAL and READY TO MOVE IN!!!This super clean 3 bedroom 2 bath is located near hospitals, schools and shopping areas at your convenience! There is an additional kitchen in the back, as well as a large covered patio to relax when you come home from work! Don't miss out and schedule today!

20. 2025-11-07
    status Active 305-char remark

    Show marketing remark (305 chars)

    PRICED BELOW APPRAISAL and READY TO MOVE IN!!!This super clean 3 bedroom 2 bath is located near hospitals, schools and shopping areas at your convenience! There is an additional kitchen in the back, as well as a large covered patio to relax when you come home from work! Don't miss out and schedule today!

21. 2025-11-07
    price $100,000 305-char remark

    Show marketing remark (305 chars)

    PRICED BELOW APPRAISAL and READY TO MOVE IN!!!This super clean 3 bedroom 2 bath is located near hospitals, schools and shopping areas at your convenience! There is an additional kitchen in the back, as well as a large covered patio to relax when you come home from work! Don't miss out and schedule today!

22. 2025-09-10
    status Pending 305-char remark

    Show marketing remark (305 chars)

    PRICED BELOW APPRAISAL and READY TO MOVE IN!!!This super clean 3 bedroom 2 bath is located near hospitals, schools and shopping areas at your convenience! There is an additional kitchen in the back, as well as a large covered patio to relax when you come home from work! Don't miss out and schedule today!

23. 2025-08-28
    listed $90,000 Active 305-char remark

    Show marketing remark (305 chars)

    PRICED BELOW APPRAISAL and READY TO MOVE IN!!!This super clean 3 bedroom 2 bath is located near hospitals, schools and shopping areas at your convenience! There is an additional kitchen in the back, as well as a large covered patio to relax when you come home from work! Don't miss out and schedule today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $315 · $26/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $429 · $36/mo
• Expected delta: +$114/yr (+$9/mo · 36.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 56% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,806
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,369
• − Property taxes: −$315
• − Insurance: −$390
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$944
• − Management: −$944
• − Depreciation: −$2,269
• Taxable income: $2,573
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$618
• After-tax cash flow: $3,095/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Vermilion Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201800
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -32.00%
• Median HH income: $45,115
• Composite: 39.37/100
• National rank: #3974
• State rank: #15 of 98 in LA

Livability — Abbeville

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #94
• US rank: #9800

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Abbeville, LA
• Population (ZIP): 23,909

Population outlook (Vermilion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 64,095 people
• By 2030: 65,915 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 68,985 · +7.6%
• By 2050: 70,804 · +10.5%
• By 2075: 73,897 · +15.3%
• By 2100: 71,793 · +12.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Black 24% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 15% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Vietnam, Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 6% Vietnamese 3% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Vermilion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.8) · D 17.6% · R 81.4% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.3pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -63.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.8 2020: R+61.9 2016: R+59.6 2012: R+52.8 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.44%
• Current HPI: 97.6131
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

-5.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-16 Price Changed $85,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-01-12 Price Changed $90,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2025-11-28 Price Changed $95,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2025-11-07 Relisted — AcadianaMLS
• 2025-11-07 Price Changed $100,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2025-09-10 Pending — AcadianaMLS
• 2025-08-28 Listed $90,000 AcadianaMLS

Property tax history

+12.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $315 · -0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.