10251 Combie Rd #13 · Lake of the Pines, CA 95602

$59,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 5,450 sqft · Manufactured public records · 106 Days on market

Built 1974

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Price Improved - An Irresistible Opportunity! Beautifully updated 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath home in a quiet, well-maintained community, conveniently located near Starbucks, CVS, shopping, and freeway access. This move-in ready home features fresh interior and exterior paint, new laminate flooring and carpet, updated light fixtures, and new blinds throughout, plus energy-efficient thermal windows for year-round comfort. Enjoy a covered patio/porch and small yard for easy outdoor living. The kitchen offers a double oven, and the home includes a washer and dryer. Both bathrooms have been refreshed with modern updates. Seller is motivated and open to reasonable offers don't miss your chance to make

Key facts

• New carpet
• Double oven
• New blinds

Tags

• DOUBLE OVEN
• UPDATED LIGHT FIXTURES
• NEW LAMINATE FLOORING
• NEW CARPET
• NEW BLINDS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease amount $1,095/month
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Land lease in place (monthly land lease applies)

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking; Off‑street parking; Boat storage available; Guest parking available
• Utilities: Cable available; Internet available; Propane service; Individual gas meter; 220V in kitchen; Water from district; Sewer: other
• Home design: Manufactured in park (single wide); Updated/remodeled; Made by Skyline; Skirted with aluminum
• Construction: Built in 1974; Other roof
• Exterior features: Backyard with landscaping in back; Covered deck

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cook top; Hood over range; Double oven; Disposal; Pantry cabinet; Stone countertops
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms — master approx. 12x9, second approx. 10x8
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom; Tub with shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Propane heating; Evaporative cooler
• Interior features: Covered deck; Weather‑stripped windows; Updated/remodeled condition; 6 total rooms (including living room, dining room, kitchen, laundry, bath, master bedroom)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Washer/dryer stacked option; Laundry located inside (inside room/area)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $55k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 28.9% vs local median 1.7% in Lake of the Pines — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#683 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Nevada Joint Union High (town): math 25% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #201 of 517 in CA (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 186 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 215 units permitted in Nevada County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $414 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nevada County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($55k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $54,509 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 28.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 80.65%
• DSCR: 4.59
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 75.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.45×
• Total profit: $57,929
• Equity at exit: $8,931

10-year hold

• IRR: 79.5%
• Equity multiple: 9.21×
• Total profit: $137,729
• Equity at exit: $5,179

Cash invested: $16,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95602

• Active inventory: 186
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,951 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$314
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$75 /mo · $898/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $1,061

Break-even live

Break-even rent $608

Max offer price $59,900

Occupancy floor 41%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,975
• Closing costs: $1,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $59,900 Active 106 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $59,900 Active 105 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $59,900 Active 104 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $59,900 Active 103 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $59,900 Active 102 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $59,900 Active 100 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $59,900 Active 99 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $59,900 Active 97 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $59,900 Active 96 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $59,900 Active 95 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $59,900 Active 94 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $59,900 Active 91 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $59,900 Active 90 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $59,900 Active 89 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $59,900 Active 88 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $59,900 Active 87 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 32 unhealthy d/yr today · 41 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,411
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,355
• − Property taxes: −$898
• − Insurance: −$1,097
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,873
• − Management: −$1,873
• − Depreciation: −$1,743
• Taxable income: $12,572
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,017
• After-tax cash flow: $9,713/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nevada Joint Union High
• NCES district ID: 0626880
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $57,336
• Composite: 37.53/100
• National rank: #4393
• State rank: #201 of 517 in CA

Livability — Lake of the Pines

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #683
• US rank: #20863

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Placer County · 390,510 people
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 19,701
• Household income: $97,466
• Rent vs Own: 19.9% rent · 80.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 521.0

Population outlook (Nevada County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 98,490 people
• By 2030: 97,295 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 92,041 · -6.5%
• By 2050: 85,164 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 68,436 · -30.5%
• By 2100: 49,536 · -49.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Nevada

• 2024 margin: D (+12.2) · D 54.4% · R 42.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 5.3pp · 2024: 12.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.2 2020: D+14.8 2016: D+4.5 2012: R+4.7 2008: D+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -426.11%
• Current HPI: 257.0087
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

-6.2%/yr

Latest (2023): $25 · -24.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.