661 - #20 Nubbin Ridge Rd · Lakeview, AR 72642

$54,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,176 sqft · Manufactured public records · 77 Days on market

Built 1994 $46/sqft · 39% above area Est $44k · 22% over ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lake Area Mobile Home in Excellent Condition with custom kitchen that is “The Wow Factor”. Located 2 miles From Bull Shoals Lake access. This lovely 1994 Dutch home with 1344 sq ft features Solid Oak kitchen cabinets, center island with solid surface counter top that is moveable, Stainless Steel appliances, double ovens, dishwasher and custom window treatments in the living room. Home also has full size washer and dryer. There are 3 bedrooms all with walk-in closets, 2 full baths, 2 sliding glass door units, Large windows which are Exceptional, plus a Large 14 x 12 deck with vaulted aluminum roof that is double insulated and complete With pulldown blinds for privacy. Detached 2 car garage with garage door opener, outbuilding, nice sidewalks, all make this home a must see. Heat and Air and Hot water heater are 2024. Backup gas wall heater included. The roof is 2020.

Key facts

• Custom kitchen
• Double ovens
• Center island

Tags

• CUSTOM KITCHEN
• SOLID OAK KITCHEN CABINETS
• CENTER ISLAND
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• DOUBLE OVENS
• CUSTOM WINDOW TREATMENTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $54k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $328 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($888 rent vs $54k).
• Recommended offer: $51k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.6% vs local median 2.5% in Lakeview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#88 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Mountain Home School District (town): math 45% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #40 of 238 in AR (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 47 units permitted in Baxter County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($373 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Baxter County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($51k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $50,760 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.64% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.05%
• DSCR: 2.16
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $44,325
• List price: $54,000
• Delta: 21.83%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
661- #17 Nubbin Ridge Rd	0.33mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,008 (-14%)	7mo	$55,000	$55	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 43.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.33×
• Total profit: $50,329
• Equity at exit: $48,647

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.0%
• Equity multiple: 9.72×
• Total profit: $131,796
• Equity at exit: $104,910

Cash invested: $15,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72642

• Home prices YoY: 6.1%
• Active inventory: 31
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $888 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$283
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$68 /mo · $810/yr
• Insurance: −$22
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$186
• Net cashflow: $328

Break-even live

Break-even rent $472

Max offer price $54,000

Occupancy floor 58%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,500
• Closing costs: $1,620
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-08
   days on market $54,000 Active 77 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $54,000 Active 76 DOM
3. 2026-06-05
   days on market $54,000 Active 73 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $54,000 Active 71 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $54,000 Active 70 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $54,000 Active 69 DOM
7. 2026-05-30
   days on market $54,000 Active 68 DOM
8. 2026-04-27
   price $54,000 889-char remark

   Show marketing remark (889 chars)

   Lake Area Mobile Home in Excellent Condition with custom kitchen that is “The Wow Factor”. Located 2 miles From Bull Shoals Lake access. This lovely 1994 Dutch home with 1344 sq ft features Solid Oak kitchen cabinets, center island with solid surface counter top that is moveable, Stainless Steel appliances, double ovens, dishwasher and custom window treatments in the living room. Home also has full size washer and dryer. There are 3 bedrooms all with walk-in closets, 2 full baths, 2 sliding glass door units, Large windows which are Exceptional, plus a Large 14 x 12 deck with vaulted aluminum roof that is double insulated and complete With pulldown blinds for privacy. Detached 2 car garage with garage door opener, outbuilding, nice sidewalks, all make this home a must see. Heat and Air and Hot water heater are 2024. Backup gas wall heater included. The roof is 2020.

9. 2026-04-16
   price $56,000 889-char remark

   Show marketing remark (889 chars)

   Lake Area Mobile Home in Excellent Condition with custom kitchen that is “The Wow Factor”. Located 2 miles From Bull Shoals Lake access. This lovely 1994 Dutch home with 1344 sq ft features Solid Oak kitchen cabinets, center island with solid surface counter top that is moveable, Stainless Steel appliances, double ovens, dishwasher and custom window treatments in the living room. Home also has full size washer and dryer. There are 3 bedrooms all with walk-in closets, 2 full baths, 2 sliding glass door units, Large windows which are Exceptional, plus a Large 14 x 12 deck with vaulted aluminum roof that is double insulated and complete With pulldown blinds for privacy. Detached 2 car garage with garage door opener, outbuilding, nice sidewalks, all make this home a must see. Heat and Air and Hot water heater are 2024. Backup gas wall heater included. The roof is 2020.

10. 2026-03-21
    listed $61,000 Active 889-char remark

    Show marketing remark (889 chars)

    Lake Area Mobile Home in Excellent Condition with custom kitchen that is “The Wow Factor”. Located 2 miles From Bull Shoals Lake access. This lovely 1994 Dutch home with 1344 sq ft features Solid Oak kitchen cabinets, center island with solid surface counter top that is moveable, Stainless Steel appliances, double ovens, dishwasher and custom window treatments in the living room. Home also has full size washer and dryer. There are 3 bedrooms all with walk-in closets, 2 full baths, 2 sliding glass door units, Large windows which are Exceptional, plus a Large 14 x 12 deck with vaulted aluminum roof that is double insulated and complete With pulldown blinds for privacy. Detached 2 car garage with garage door opener, outbuilding, nice sidewalks, all make this home a must see. Heat and Air and Hot water heater are 2024. Backup gas wall heater included. The roof is 2020.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,654
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,025
• − Property taxes: −$810
• − Insurance: −$270
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$852
• − Management: −$852
• − Depreciation: −$1,571
• Taxable income: $3,274
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$786
• After-tax cash flow: $3,153/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mountain Home School District
• NCES district ID: 0500043
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $36,966
• Composite: 37.4/100
• National rank: #4424
• State rank: #40 of 238 in AR

Livability — Lakeview

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #88
• US rank: #9722

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 1,724
• Population (ZIP): 1,724

Population outlook (Baxter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 39,886 people
• By 2030: 39,226 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 37,810 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 36,287 · -9.0%
• By 2075: 32,965 · -17.4%
• By 2100: 28,002 · -29.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Serbian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baxter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+56.9) · D 20.7% · R 77.6% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.3pp toward R · 2008: -31.6pp · 2024: -56.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+56.9 2020: R+53.3 2016: R+53.6 2012: R+44.0 2008: R+31.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.66%
• Current HPI: 237.0425
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

-11.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $54,000 MHMLS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $56,000 MHMLS
• 2026-03-21 Listed $61,000 MHMLS

Property tax history

+18.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $33 · +557.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.