2434 Elm Dr Dr · Coalville, IA 50501

$76,728

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,496 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 154 Days on market

Built 1975 0.33 ac lot Est $64k · 19% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

3 bdrm Ranch home located in a quiet neighborhood located south of Fort Dodge with quick access to Fort Dodge, Humboldt or Webster City. Fenced backyard with space for a garden and room to hang out.

Key facts

• Ranch home
• Quiet neighborhood
• Fenced backyard

Tags

• RANCH HOME
• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD
• FENCED BACKYARD
• SPACE FOR A GARDEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $77k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $343 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $77k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#539 in IA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Fort Dodge Community School District (town): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #285 of 289 in IA (top 99%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP; 25 units permitted in Webster County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $530 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Webster County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 154 days — a 12% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $67,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 154 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.53% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.18%
• DSCR: 1.85
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $64,328
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
23863 Hays St	0.59mi	3/1.5	1,347 (-10%)	19mo	$58,000	$43	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $9,485
• Equity at exit: $11,440

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.70×
• Total profit: $36,622
• Equity at exit: $6,634

Cash invested: $21,484 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 50501

• Home prices YoY: -33.1%
• Active inventory: 36
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,173 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$402
• Tax from tax record: −$149 /mo · $1,784/yr
• Insurance: −$32
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$246
• Net cashflow: $343

Break-even live

Break-even rent $738

Max offer price $76,728

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,182
• Closing costs: $2,302
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-02-19
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-26
   price $76,728
3. 2025-11-21
   price $86,319
4. 2025-10-23
   price $91,115
5. 2025-09-17
   listed $95,910 Active
6. 2015-02-05
   soldstatus $90,000
7. 2007-08-15
   soldstatus $75,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,784 · $149/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,784 · $149/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,071
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,298
• − Property taxes: −$1,784
• − Insurance: −$384
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,126
• − Management: −$1,126
• − Depreciation: −$2,232
• Taxable income: $3,122
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$749
• After-tax cash flow: $3,371/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Dodge Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1911820
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $39,807
• Composite: 40.54/100
• National rank: #3700
• State rank: #285 of 289 in IA

Livability — Coalville

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #539
• US rank: #12041

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Coalville, IA
• County: Webster County · 28,823 people
• Metro: Fort Dodge, IA
• Population (ZIP): 28,823
• Household income: $66,888
• Rent vs Own: 32.4% rent · 67.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 673.0

Population outlook (Webster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 35,895 people
• By 2030: 35,334 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 34,073 · -5.1%
• By 2050: 33,264 · -7.3%
• By 2075: 32,560 · -9.3%
• By 2100: 30,786 · -14.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 7% Slovak 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Webster

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.2) · D 33.8% · R 65.0% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -39.7pp toward R · 2008: 8.5pp · 2024: -31.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.2 2020: R+24.3 2016: R+21.8 2012: D+5.5 2008: D+8.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -95.63%
• Current HPI: 193.5846
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Fort Dodge, IA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

+2.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-19 Pending — IAR
• 2026-01-26 Price Changed $76,728 IAR
• 2025-11-21 Price Changed $86,319 IAR
• 2025-10-23 Price Changed $91,115 IAR
• 2025-09-17 Listed $95,910 IAR
• 2015-02-05 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 2007-08-15 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,784 · +7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.