449 Gila Trl · Bracey, VA 23919

$120,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 600 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 61 Days on market

Built 2021 4,756 sqft lot $200/sqft · 83% above area $68/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.5/30.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lovely Private Lake Gaston Tiny Home with Water View. Built in 2021, this charming stick-built home offers 640 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space, perfect for easy, comfortable living. The open-concept layout maximizes functionality and can accommodate up to six guests. The well-equipped kitchen features a full-size refrigerator, gas range, and a spacious sink, flowing seamlessly into a cozy breakfast nook and a small office area. The inviting living space is ideal for relaxing or watching TV. Just around the corner, you'll find two sleeping areas and a full bathroom with a generously sized shower, plus a washer and dryer for added convenience. Durable vinyl flooring runs throughout the home. Comfort is ensured year-round with a gas tankless water heater and an efficient electric mini-split system for heating and cooling. Situated on a larger-than-average lot along Gila Trail Loop, this property truly stands out for its location. Nestled in a quieter section of the neighborhood and backing up to a large, undeveloped wooded tract, it offers a rare sense of privacy. Step out onto the deck and enjoy peaceful views of Lake Gaston through the homes below. The gravel driveway provides ample parking for vehicles, guests, or even a boat. Inside, the flexible layout also allows for the option to partition space and create an additional private bedroom if desired. Located within the desirable River Ridge community, residents enjoy access to a boat launch and other neighborhood amenities, all within an established HOA. Offered partially furnished and move-in ready, this property is an excellent choice for full-time minimalist living or as a relaxing weekend getaway. Note: Buyers must be accompanied by a Realtor to access the gated community.

Key facts

• Cozy breakfast nook
• Small office area
• Water view

Tags

• WATER VIEW
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• WELL-EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• COZY BREAKFAST NOOK
• SMALL OFFICE AREA
• INVITING LIVING SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $316 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $113k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 2.5% in Bracey — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#421 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Mecklenburg County Public School District (rural): math 57% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #49 of 131 in VA (top 37%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 110 active listings in the ZIP; 153 units permitted in Mecklenburg County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($830 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Mecklenburg County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $32k; list at $120k implies a 275% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,800 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.29%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $69,908
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: 71.65%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
421 Happy Trl	0.31mi	1/1.0	638 (+6%)	1mo	$27,500	$43	74
76 Lumber Trl	0.38mi	1/1.0	600 (0%)	13mo	$55,000	$92	71
7 Iowa Trl	0.24mi	2/1.0 (+1)	552 (-8%)	6mo	$50,000	$91	65
289 Deer Dr	0.52mi	1/1.0	563 (-6%)	11mo	$145,000	$258	56
30 Haw Haw Trl	0.23mi	2/1.0 (+1)	676 (+13%)	10mo	$69,000	$102	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.42% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.74×
• Total profit: $24,936
• Equity at exit: $43,614

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.19×
• Total profit: $73,563
• Equity at exit: $60,064

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23919

• Home prices YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,536 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$150 /mo · $1,800/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$68
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$323
• Net cashflow: $316

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,136

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $68 · $816/yr
• Likely covers: watergaselectricsecurity

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 61 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 60 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 59 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 58 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $120,000 Active 56 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 55 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $120,000 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 52 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 51 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $120,000 Active 50 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $120,000 Active 47 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 46 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 45 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 44 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 43 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    status $120,000 Active 42 DOM
17. 2026-05-16
    status Pending 1775-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1775 chars)

    Lovely Private Lake Gaston Tiny Home with Water View. Built in 2021, this charming stick-built home offers 640 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space, perfect for easy, comfortable living. The open-concept layout maximizes functionality and can accommodate up to six guests. The well-equipped kitchen features a full-size refrigerator, gas range, and a spacious sink, flowing seamlessly into a cozy breakfast nook and a small office area. The inviting living space is ideal for relaxing or watching TV. Just around the corner, you'll find two sleeping areas and a full bathroom with a generously sized shower, plus a washer and dryer for added convenience. Durable vinyl flooring runs throughout the home. Comfort is ensured year-round with a gas tankless water heater and an efficient electric mini-split system for heating and cooling. Situated on a larger-than-average lot along Gila Trail Loop, this property truly stands out for its location. Nestled in a quieter section of the neighborhood and backing up to a large, undeveloped wooded tract, it offers a rare sense of privacy. Step out onto the deck and enjoy peaceful views of Lake Gaston through the homes below. The gravel driveway provides ample parking for vehicles, guests, or even a boat. Inside, the flexible layout also allows for the option to partition space and create an additional private bedroom if desired. Located within the desirable River Ridge community, residents enjoy access to a boat launch and other neighborhood amenities, all within an established HOA. Offered partially furnished and move-in ready, this property is an excellent choice for full-time minimalist living or as a relaxing weekend getaway. Note: Buyers must be accompanied by a Realtor to access the gated community.

18. 2026-05-15
    historical Active Under Contract 1179-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1179 chars)

    Lovely Private Lake Gaston Tiny Home with Water View. Built in 2021, this charming stick-built home offers 640 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space. The open-concept layout maximizes functionality and can accommodate up to six guests. The well-equipped kitchen features a full-size refrigerator, gas range, and a spacious sink, flowing seamlessly into a cozy breakfast nook and a small office area. Just around the corner, you'll find two sleeping areas and a full bathroom with a generously sized shower, plus a washer and dryer. Durable vinyl flooring runs throughout the home. Comfort is ensured year-round with a gas tankless water heater and an efficient electric mini-split system. Situated on a larger-than-average lot along Gila Trail Loop, this property truly stands out for its location. In a quieter section of the neighborhood and backing up to a large, undeveloped wooded tract, it offers a rare sense of privacy. Step out onto the deck and enjoy peaceful views of Lake Gaston through the homes below. The gravel driveway provides ample parking for vehicles, guests, or even a boat. Buyers must be accompanied by a Realtor to access the gated community.

19. 2026-05-15
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (1179 chars)

    Lovely Private Lake Gaston Tiny Home with Water View. Built in 2021, this charming stick-built home offers 640 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space. The open-concept layout maximizes functionality and can accommodate up to six guests. The well-equipped kitchen features a full-size refrigerator, gas range, and a spacious sink, flowing seamlessly into a cozy breakfast nook and a small office area. Just around the corner, you'll find two sleeping areas and a full bathroom with a generously sized shower, plus a washer and dryer. Durable vinyl flooring runs throughout the home. Comfort is ensured year-round with a gas tankless water heater and an efficient electric mini-split system. Situated on a larger-than-average lot along Gila Trail Loop, this property truly stands out for its location. In a quieter section of the neighborhood and backing up to a large, undeveloped wooded tract, it offers a rare sense of privacy. Step out onto the deck and enjoy peaceful views of Lake Gaston through the homes below. The gravel driveway provides ample parking for vehicles, guests, or even a boat. Buyers must be accompanied by a Realtor to access the gated community.

20. 2026-05-11
    price $120,000 1775-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1179 chars)

    Lovely Private Lake Gaston Tiny Home with Water View. Built in 2021, this charming stick-built home offers 640 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space. The open-concept layout maximizes functionality and can accommodate up to six guests. The well-equipped kitchen features a full-size refrigerator, gas range, and a spacious sink, flowing seamlessly into a cozy breakfast nook and a small office area. Just around the corner, you'll find two sleeping areas and a full bathroom with a generously sized shower, plus a washer and dryer. Durable vinyl flooring runs throughout the home. Comfort is ensured year-round with a gas tankless water heater and an efficient electric mini-split system. Situated on a larger-than-average lot along Gila Trail Loop, this property truly stands out for its location. In a quieter section of the neighborhood and backing up to a large, undeveloped wooded tract, it offers a rare sense of privacy. Step out onto the deck and enjoy peaceful views of Lake Gaston through the homes below. The gravel driveway provides ample parking for vehicles, guests, or even a boat. Buyers must be accompanied by a Realtor to access the gated community.

21. 2026-05-11
    price $120,000

    Show marketing remark (1179 chars)

    Lovely Private Lake Gaston Tiny Home with Water View. Built in 2021, this charming stick-built home offers 640 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space. The open-concept layout maximizes functionality and can accommodate up to six guests. The well-equipped kitchen features a full-size refrigerator, gas range, and a spacious sink, flowing seamlessly into a cozy breakfast nook and a small office area. Just around the corner, you'll find two sleeping areas and a full bathroom with a generously sized shower, plus a washer and dryer. Durable vinyl flooring runs throughout the home. Comfort is ensured year-round with a gas tankless water heater and an efficient electric mini-split system. Situated on a larger-than-average lot along Gila Trail Loop, this property truly stands out for its location. In a quieter section of the neighborhood and backing up to a large, undeveloped wooded tract, it offers a rare sense of privacy. Step out onto the deck and enjoy peaceful views of Lake Gaston through the homes below. The gravel driveway provides ample parking for vehicles, guests, or even a boat. Buyers must be accompanied by a Realtor to access the gated community.

22. 2026-05-11
    price $120,000 1179-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1179 chars)

    Lovely Private Lake Gaston Tiny Home with Water View. Built in 2021, this charming stick-built home offers 640 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space. The open-concept layout maximizes functionality and can accommodate up to six guests. The well-equipped kitchen features a full-size refrigerator, gas range, and a spacious sink, flowing seamlessly into a cozy breakfast nook and a small office area. Just around the corner, you'll find two sleeping areas and a full bathroom with a generously sized shower, plus a washer and dryer. Durable vinyl flooring runs throughout the home. Comfort is ensured year-round with a gas tankless water heater and an efficient electric mini-split system. Situated on a larger-than-average lot along Gila Trail Loop, this property truly stands out for its location. In a quieter section of the neighborhood and backing up to a large, undeveloped wooded tract, it offers a rare sense of privacy. Step out onto the deck and enjoy peaceful views of Lake Gaston through the homes below. The gravel driveway provides ample parking for vehicles, guests, or even a boat. Buyers must be accompanied by a Realtor to access the gated community.

23. 2026-04-03
    listed $125,000 Active 1179-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1179 chars)

    Lovely Private Lake Gaston Tiny Home with Water View. Built in 2021, this charming stick-built home offers 640 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space. The open-concept layout maximizes functionality and can accommodate up to six guests. The well-equipped kitchen features a full-size refrigerator, gas range, and a spacious sink, flowing seamlessly into a cozy breakfast nook and a small office area. Just around the corner, you'll find two sleeping areas and a full bathroom with a generously sized shower, plus a washer and dryer. Durable vinyl flooring runs throughout the home. Comfort is ensured year-round with a gas tankless water heater and an efficient electric mini-split system. Situated on a larger-than-average lot along Gila Trail Loop, this property truly stands out for its location. In a quieter section of the neighborhood and backing up to a large, undeveloped wooded tract, it offers a rare sense of privacy. Step out onto the deck and enjoy peaceful views of Lake Gaston through the homes below. The gravel driveway provides ample parking for vehicles, guests, or even a boat. Buyers must be accompanied by a Realtor to access the gated community.

24. 2026-04-02
    listed $125,000 Active 1775-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1775 chars)

    Lovely Private Lake Gaston Tiny Home with Water View. Built in 2021, this charming stick-built home offers 640 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space, perfect for easy, comfortable living. The open-concept layout maximizes functionality and can accommodate up to six guests. The well-equipped kitchen features a full-size refrigerator, gas range, and a spacious sink, flowing seamlessly into a cozy breakfast nook and a small office area. The inviting living space is ideal for relaxing or watching TV. Just around the corner, you'll find two sleeping areas and a full bathroom with a generously sized shower, plus a washer and dryer for added convenience. Durable vinyl flooring runs throughout the home. Comfort is ensured year-round with a gas tankless water heater and an efficient electric mini-split system for heating and cooling. Situated on a larger-than-average lot along Gila Trail Loop, this property truly stands out for its location. Nestled in a quieter section of the neighborhood and backing up to a large, undeveloped wooded tract, it offers a rare sense of privacy. Step out onto the deck and enjoy peaceful views of Lake Gaston through the homes below. The gravel driveway provides ample parking for vehicles, guests, or even a boat. Inside, the flexible layout also allows for the option to partition space and create an additional private bedroom if desired. Located within the desirable River Ridge community, residents enjoy access to a boat launch and other neighborhood amenities, all within an established HOA. Offered partially furnished and move-in ready, this property is an excellent choice for full-time minimalist living or as a relaxing weekend getaway. Note: Buyers must be accompanied by a Realtor to access the gated community.

25. 2026-04-01
    listed $125,000 Active
26. 2020-02-10
    soldstatus $32,000
27. 2020-02-07
    soldstatus $32,000
28. 2020-01-16
    listed $39,000
29. 2012-04-20
    soldstatus $33,500
30. 2012-03-20
    listed $40,000
31. 2008-07-28
    soldstatus $33,500
32. 2006-07-13
    soldstatus $17,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,433
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,800
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,475
• − Management: −$1,475
• − HOA: −$816
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $2,055
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$493
• After-tax cash flow: $3,301/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mecklenburg County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102460
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $37,491
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1446
• State rank: #49 of 131 in VA

Livability — Bracey

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #421
• US rank: #18014

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bracey, VA
• City population: 2,096
• Population (ZIP): 2,096

Population outlook (Mecklenburg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,332 people
• By 2030: 26,742 · -5.6%
• By 2040: 23,502 · -17.0%
• By 2050: 20,851 · -26.4%
• By 2075: 17,525 · -38.1%
• By 2100: 14,524 · -48.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Black 10% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Russian 5% Slovak 3% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mecklenburg

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 39.4% · R 60.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.2pp toward R · 2008: -4.6pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+15.2 2016: R+11.3 2012: R+7.2 2008: R+4.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Current HPI: 204.6074
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+585.7% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Pending — RVLG
• 2026-05-15 Contingent — SCAR
• 2026-05-15 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $120,000 RVLG
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $120,000 CVRMLS
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $120,000 SCAR
• 2026-04-03 Listed $125,000 SCAR
• 2026-04-02 Listed $125,000 RVLG
• 2026-04-01 Listed $125,000 CVRMLS
• 2020-02-10 Sold (Public Records) $32,000 Public Records
• 2020-02-07 Sold (MLS) $32,000 RVLG
• 2020-01-16 Listed $39,000 RVLG
• 2012-04-20 Sold (MLS) $33,500 RVLG
• 2012-03-20 Listed $40,000 RVLG
• 2008-07-28 Sold (Public Records) $33,500 Public Records
• 2006-07-13 Sold (Public Records) $17,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $171 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.