1194 US Highway 12 #14 · Central Park, WA 98563

$50,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 996 sqft · Manufactured · 150 Days on market

Built 1975 Good condition $50/sqft · 453% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Mobile home located in Hidden Valley Park with newer roof and new subfloors, well maintained interior. This Unit has $800 of space rent on a quieter corner of the park. Nearby to highway access for easy travel. Come show now.

Key facts

• Newer roof
• Quieter corner
• Highway access

Tags

• NEWER ROOF
• NEW SUBFLOORS
• WELL MAINTAINED INTERIOR
• QUIETER CORNER
• HIGHWAY ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $541 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#174 in WA, #4,470 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, commute A; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D, amenities F.
• Montesano School District (town): math 57% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #60 of 291 in WA (top 21%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 69 active listings in the ZIP; 297 units permitted in Grays Harbor County in 2024 (17 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $346 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grays Harbor County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 150 days — a 12% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $44,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 150 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 46.39%
• DSCR: 3.06
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $9,037
• List price: $50,000
• Delta: 453.30%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1194 US - HWY 12 #18	0.07mi	2/2.0 (-1)	924 (-7%)	10mo	$9,000	$10	71
1194 US - Hwy 12 #19	0.07mi	3/1.0	896 (-10%)	8mo	$3,500	$4	70
57 Clemons Rd #49	0.49mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,008 (+1%)	1mo	$70,000	$69	69

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 43.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.88×
• Total profit: $26,385
• Equity at exit: $7,455

10-year hold

• IRR: 49.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.82×
• Total profit: $67,430
• Equity at exit: $4,323

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98563

• Active inventory: 69
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,122 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$62 /mo · $750/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$236
• Net cashflow: $541

Break-even live

Break-even rent $437

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 47%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $576	-5% $558	+0% $541	+5% $524	+10% $507
Rent	-10% $453	-5% $497	+0% $541	+5% $586	+10% $630
Rate	-1.0pp $566	-0.5pp $554	base $541	+0.5pp $528	+1.0pp $515

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $50,000 Active 150 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $50,000 Active 149 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $50,000 Active 148 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $50,000 Active 147 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $50,000 Active 146 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $50,000 Active 144 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $50,000 Active 143 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $50,000 Active 139 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $50,000 Active 138 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $50,000 Active 135 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $50,000 Active 134 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $50,000 Active 133 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $50,000 Active 132 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $50,000 Active 131 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $50,000 Active 130 DOM
16. 2026-01-20
    listed $50,000 Active
17. 2023-10-27
    soldstatus $45,000 Closed
18. 2023-09-21
    status Pending
19. 2023-09-18
    listed $49,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,470
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$750
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,078
• − Management: −$1,078
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $6,059
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,454
• After-tax cash flow: $5,040/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This mobile home is in good condition with recent updates, offering a move-in-ready living space.

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Both update flooring — modernizes living spaces and improves rental appeal
• Both install new windows — increases natural light and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both update flooring — modernizes living spaces and improves rental appeal ↑
• Both install new windows — increases natural light and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montesano School District
• NCES district ID: 5305160
• Math proficiency: 57% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $54,981
• Composite: 53.15/100
• National rank: #3220
• State rank: #60 of 291 in WA

Livability — Central Park

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #174
• US rank: #4470

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,630

Population outlook (Grays Harbor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 66,443 people
• By 2030: 63,255 · -4.8%
• By 2040: 56,466 · -15.0%
• By 2050: 50,516 · -24.0%
• By 2075: 39,296 · -40.9%
• By 2100: 31,142 · -53.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Grays Harbor

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.0) · D 45.6% · R 51.6% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 14.6pp · 2024: -6.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.0 2020: R+6.6 2016: R+7.1 2012: D+14.0 2008: D+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -249.34%
• Current HPI: 213.2127
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+2.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-20 Listed $50,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-27 Sold (MLS) $45,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-21 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-18 Listed $49,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid