7403 Circle Vw · East Tawakoni, TX 75453

$59,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,188 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1975 9,148 sqft lot $50/sqft · 61% below area $8/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 34% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Investor special in the heart of Lone Oak with incredible lake views! This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home with a 1-car garage sits on approximately 0.35 acres directly across the street from lakefront properties, offering unobstructed sightlines and strong upside potential. The structure will require a full renovation—ideal for experienced investors looking for their next project, flip, or long-term hold. With the right vision, this property could be transformed into a highly desirable lake-view retreat without the premium price of direct waterfront ownership. Opportunities like this in Lone Oak—especially with this kind of view—are hard to find at this price point. Cash or hard m

Key facts

• 9,148 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1975

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions: Enter subdivision through Shoreline Dr via 3413; County: Hunt; Subdivision: Rolling Hills Sec III
• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash
• HOA & community: Voluntary association; Annual HOA fee of $100; HOA managed by Rolling Hills NP HOA

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 garage space); 1 covered parking space
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Electricity available; Cable available; No municipal utility district
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; One-story; Attached property
• Construction: Built in 1975; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Lake-front lot; Boat ramp in the community

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms total; Primary bedroom (level 1, approx. 10 x 13)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: High speed internet available; One living area; One dining area; Total rooms: 2; Living room (level 1, approx. 13 x 22)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $59k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $717 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $59k).
• Recommended offer: $57k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.9% vs local median 4.5% in East Tawakoni — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,455 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lone Oak ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #310 of 826 in TX (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lone Oak El (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,545 of 4,322 statewide, top 38%, 489 students, 45% FRL).
• Market conditions: 115 active listings in the ZIP; 1,289 units permitted in Hunt County in 2024 (527 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($408 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hunt County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($57k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $57,230 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
9. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
10. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 52.09%
• DSCR: 3.32
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $151,001
• List price: $59,000
• Delta: -60.93%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7426 Scenic Dr	0.06mi	2/1.0	1,220 (+3%)	5mo	$145,000	$119	85
7434 Scenic Dr	0.07mi	2/1.5	1,174 (-1%)	20mo	$220,000	$187	76
7797 Scenic Dr	0.34mi	2/2.0	1,200 (+1%)	16mo	$160,000	$133	70
7353 Shoreline Dr	0.40mi	2/2.0	1,158 (-2%)	15mo	$204,999	$177	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 65.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.71×
• Total profit: $77,863
• Equity at exit: $53,152

10-year hold

• IRR: 59.0%
• Equity multiple: 12.71×
• Total profit: $193,500
• Equity at exit: $114,624

Cash invested: $16,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75453

• Home prices YoY: 25.2%
• Active inventory: 115
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,502 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$309
• Tax from tax record: −$127 /mo · $1,528/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $717

Break-even live

Break-even rent $594

Max offer price $59,000

Occupancy floor 47%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,750
• Closing costs: $1,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-10
   status $59,000 Pending 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $59,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $59,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $59,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $59,000 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $59,000 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $59,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   price $59,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $69,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,000 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-05-05
    listed $89,900 Active 761-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,528 · $127/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,528 · $127/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,021
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,305
• − Property taxes: −$1,528
• − Insurance: −$295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,442
• − Management: −$1,442
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$1,716
• Taxable income: $8,197
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,967
• After-tax cash flow: $6,637/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lone Oak ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828020
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $51,628
• Composite: 36.72/100
• National rank: #4593
• State rank: #310 of 826 in TX

Livability — East Tawakoni

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #1455
• US rank: #24873

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,832

Population outlook (Hunt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 97,090 people
• By 2030: 100,452 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 106,544 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 111,218 · +14.6%
• By 2075: 121,695 · +25.3%
• By 2100: 123,683 · +27.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 7% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Portuguese 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hunt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.5) · D 21.9% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.9pp toward R · 2008: -40.6pp · 2024: -55.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.5 2020: R+52.5 2016: R+56.3 2012: R+51.2 2008: R+40.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 51.45%
• Current HPI: 255.6167
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-34.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2026-06-09 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-06-01 Price Changed $59,000 NTREIS
• 2026-05-26 Price Changed $69,000 NTREIS
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $79,000 NTREIS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $89,900 NTREIS

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,528 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.