6221 Bottlecella Blvd · Winter Haven, FL 33884

$283,490

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,880 sqft · Land · 29 Days on market

Built 2026 6,534 sqft lot $320/mo HOA · 14% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under Construction. This expansive two-story Columbus has a well-designed layout, featuring a first floor dedicated to shared living and entertaining. The open concept design seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining room and family room, with a patio extending the interior space outdoors. Upstairs, a spacious loft separates the three secondary bedrooms from the serene owner's suite. Completing the home is a convenient two-car garage. Villa Mar is a masterplan community of new single-family homes. Near Historic downtown Winter Haven. There are lots of shops, restaurants, bike paths, and easy access to nearby highways. Close to Legoland and Bok Tower Gardens. The much anticipated “Villar

Key facts

• Open concept design
• Bike paths
• Patio

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT DESIGN
• PATIO
• SPACIOUS LOFT
• NEAR HISTORIC DOWNTOWN
• SHOPS AND RESTAURANTS
• BIKE PATHS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease restrictions apply
• Financial info: CDD present; Other annual assessment amount listed
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA $320 (includes escrow reserves fund and private road); HOA requires approval; Community amenities: playground, pool; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (20 x 19) with garage door opener; Driveway
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available and connected; Cable available and connected; Fiber optics; Underground utilities
• Home design: Single family residence; Two levels; Under construction (projected completion 2026-11-30); Northwest facing
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; New construction by Lennar Homes (Builder model: Columbus)
• Exterior features: Patio; Porch; Sliding doors; Paved, private lot; Asphalt road access; Street lights in community

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Solid surface counters; Solid wood cabinets
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: In-wall pest system; Kitchen/family room combo; Open floorplan; Solid surface counters; Solid wood cabinets; Thermostat; Walk-in closets; Thermal windows; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry; Washer; Dryer; Irrigation equipment

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $283k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-500 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $211k (25.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (20.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $211k (25.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#291 in FL, #4,898 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pinewood Elementary School (math 48% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,330 of 2,144 statewide, top 63%, 709 students, 53% FRL); Lake Region High School (math 14% / reading 22%, grade F, #570 of 667 statewide, top 86%, 1,545 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools at 57% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 680 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($279k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $211,103 (25.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.56%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-80,034
• Equity at exit: $42,269

10-year hold

• IRR: -40.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.51×
• Total profit: $-119,676
• Equity at exit: $24,511

Cash invested: $79,377 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33884

• Home prices YoY: -34.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 680
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,252 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,487
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$354 /mo · $4,252/yr
• Insurance: −$118
• HOA: −$320
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$473
• Net cashflow: $-500

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,885

Max offer price $211,103

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-304	-5% $-402	+0% $-500	+5% $-598	+10% $-696
Rent	-10% $-678	-5% $-589	+0% $-500	+5% $-411	+10% $-322
Rate	-1.0pp $-357	-0.5pp $-428	base $-500	+0.5pp $-574	+1.0pp $-648

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,872
• Closing costs: $8,505
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 32 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6204 Botticella Blvd Winter Haven, FL	5.0	2.5	2280	$2,350	$1.03	4d	1	0.07mi
6428 Domizio Dr Winter Haven, FL	5.0	2.5	2112	$2,200	$1.04	24d	1	0.11mi
6472 Domizio Dr Winter Haven, FL	5.0	2.5	2112	$2,300	$1.09	24d	1	0.12mi
3889 Giorgio Dr Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1483	$2,000	$1.35	24d	1	0.24mi
4973 Kaia Ave Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1483	$1,900	$1.28	3d	1	0.25mi
3511 Costello Cir Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	2234	$2,100	$0.94	24d	1	0.26mi
4981 Kaia Ave Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1269	$1,875	$1.48	19d	1	0.26mi
3905 Giorgio Dr Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1707	$2,050	$1.20	4d	1	0.27mi
3912 Giorgio Dr Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1483	$1,900	$1.28	22d	1	0.28mi
3916 Giorgio Dr Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,695	$1.32	4d	1	0.29mi
3436 Costello Cir Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1504	$1,750	$1.16	3d	1	0.34mi
4506 Rapallo Ave Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1754	$1,899	$1.08	24d	1	0.35mi
3412 Costello Cir Winter Haven, FL	5.0	3.0	2540	$2,500	$0.98	24d	1	0.39mi
2772 San Marco Way Winter Haven, FL	4.0	3.0	1988	$2,200	$1.11	24d	1	0.40mi
4458 Rapallo Ave Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.5	1568	$2,000	$1.28	24d	1	0.44mi
4442 Rapallo Ave Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1607	$1,895	$1.18	24d	1	0.46mi
3063 Laurel Oak Ln Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1269	$1,695	$1.34	24d	1	0.55mi
3063 Laurel Oak Ln Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1269	$1,695	$1.34	14d	1	0.55mi
632 Vittorio Dr Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1597	$1,895	$1.19	24d	1	0.70mi
2107 Cartgate Ln Winter Haven, FL	4.0	3.0	2217	$2,600	$1.17	24d	1	0.73mi
2116 Cartgate Ln Winter Haven, FL	4.0	3.0	2217	$2,500	$1.13	24d	1	0.74mi
1734 Carnostie Rd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1418	$2,050	$1.45	24d	1	0.77mi
1735 Carnostie Rd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1515	$1,900	$1.25	24d	1	0.77mi
1002 Corso Dr Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1545	$1,945	$1.26	24d	1	0.78mi
1310 Benevento Dr Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1964	$2,500	$1.27	24d	1	0.80mi
1343 Benevento Dr Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1849	$2,000	$1.08	15d	1	0.82mi
810 Terranova Rd Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	2056	$1,900	$0.92	24d	1	0.83mi
850 Terranova Rd Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1770	$2,176	$1.23	4d	1	0.87mi
397 Corso Loop Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1851	$2,395	$1.29	4d	1	0.92mi
554 Reddicks Cir Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	2000	$2,000	$1.00	11d	1	0.93mi
670 Eagle Landing Blvd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1480	$1,999	$1.35	3d	1	1.21mi
219 Cloverdale Rd Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1858	$2,300	$1.24	24d	1	1.35mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $320 · $3,840/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-29
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-24
   price $283,490
3. 2026-04-15
   price $280,490
4. 2026-04-07
   price $290,490
5. 2026-03-31
   listed $289,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,021
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,880
• − Property taxes: −$4,252
• − Insurance: −$1,417
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,162
• − Management: −$2,162
• − HOA: −$3,840
• − Depreciation: −$8,247
• Taxable loss: −$10,939
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,625
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,378/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Winter Haven

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #291
• US rank: #4898

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winter Haven, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 121,740
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 37,561
• Household income: $70,443
• Rent vs Own: 25.7% rent · 74.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 949.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 14% Two or more races 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Hispanic 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 12% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -134.69%
• Current HPI: 260.1421
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.90%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-2.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $283,490 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $280,490 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $290,490 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Listed $289,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid