1640 Elliott Rd · Howe, TX 75459

$216,199

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,451 sqft · SingleFamily · 8 Days on market

Built 2025 Poor condition 5,358 sqft lot Est $219k · at est. $83/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.7/30.0
• ARV discount +8.1/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

LENNAR - Noble Ridge

Key facts

• 5,358 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2025

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $216k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-102 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $201k (6.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (13.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $187k (13.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.5% in Howe — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#368 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Howe ISD (rural): math 47% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #180 of 826 in TX (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 142 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,272 units permitted in Grayson County in 2024 (750 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grayson County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $186,749 (13.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.02%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $219,101
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1640 Elliott Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,451 (0%)	1mo	$216,199	$149	100
1629 Elliott Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,451 (0%)	2mo	$219,999	$152	99
1616 Elliott Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+1%)	2mo	$223,999	$153	97
904 Cole St	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+1%)	1mo	$232,999	$159	93
1325 Elliott Rd	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,429 (-2%)	1mo	$258,990	$181	92
1317 Elliott Rd	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,589 (+10%)	1mo	$268,490	$169	78
1504 Elliott Rd	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,621 (+12%)	2mo	$243,999	$151	77
1301 Elliott Rd	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,589 (+10%)	2mo	$239,000	$150	75
1304 Kennedy Rd	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,589 (+10%)	3mo	$238,990	$150	75
1625 Elliot Rd	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,656 (+14%)	2mo	$225,399	$136	70
808 N Hughes St	0.74mi	3/3.0	1,444 (-0%)	2mo	$180,000	$125	60
1808 Douglas St	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,666 (+15%)	1mo	$249,000	$149	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-41,437
• Equity at exit: $32,236

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-44,109
• Equity at exit: $18,693

Cash invested: $60,536 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75459

• Home prices YoY: -18.5%
• Active inventory: 142
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,867 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,134
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$270 /mo · $3,243/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$83
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$392
• Net cashflow: $-102

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,996

Max offer price $201,470

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $48	-5% $-27	+0% $-102	+5% $-176	+10% $-251
Rent	-10% $-249	-5% $-176	+0% $-102	+5% $-28	+10% $46
Rate	-1.0pp $7	-0.5pp $-47	base $-102	+0.5pp $-158	+1.0pp $-215

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,050
• Closing costs: $6,486
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1625 Elliott Rd Howe, TX	4.0	2.0	1656	$1,950	$1.18	44d	1	0.04mi
1632 Elliott Rd Howe, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,800	$1.23	21d	1	0.04mi
1636 Elliott Rd Howe, TX	4.0	2.0	1656	$1,950	$1.18	44d	1	0.04mi
1629 Elliott Rd Howe, TX	3.0	2.0	1451	$1,800	$1.24	44d	1	0.04mi
1520 Elliott Rd Howe, TX	4.0	2.0	1810	$2,100	$1.16	44d	1	0.05mi
1317 Kennedy Rd Howe, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,795	$1.12	44d	1	0.11mi
1301 Elliott Rd Howe, TX	3.0	2.0	1589	$1,850	$1.16	21d	1	0.15mi
1810 Clegg St Howe, TX	4.0	2.0	1658	$1,595	$0.96	21d	1	0.31mi
116 N Western Hills Dr Howe, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	852	$1,570	$1.84	2d	19	0.78mi
406 N Denny St Unit B Howe, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,599	$1.00	44d	1	0.86mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $83 · $996/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-03-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-26
   price $216,199
3. 2026-02-21
   listed $236,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,410
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,111
• − Property taxes: −$3,243
• − Insurance: −$1,081
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,793
• − Management: −$1,793
• − HOA: −$996
• − Depreciation: −$6,289
• Taxable loss: −$4,896
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,175
• After-tax cash flow: $-46/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This home requires extensive repairs and maintenance, including painting, siding repair, and flooring replacement. Significant structural issues are evident, and updates will be necessary to improve its condition and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Interior walls — Severe peeling paint and visible damage indicate significant structural issues.
• Major Exterior siding — Weathered and possibly damaged siding suggests significant structural issues.
• Major Flooring — Worn and possibly damaged flooring indicates significant structural issues.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting and repairing exterior siding — Fresh paint and repaired siding will improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers.
• Rental Flooring replacement — Replacing worn flooring will improve the living experience for tenants and increase rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Interior walls · Severe peeling paint and visible damage indicate significant structural issues.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exterior siding · Weathered and possibly damaged siding suggests significant structural issues.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Flooring · Worn and possibly damaged flooring indicates significant structural issues.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$45,000–150,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Painting and repairing exterior siding — Fresh paint and repaired siding will improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers. ↑
• Rental Flooring replacement — Replacing worn flooring will improve the living experience for tenants and increase rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Howe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823670
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $60,164
• Composite: 42.92/100
• National rank: #3119
• State rank: #180 of 826 in TX

Livability — Howe

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #368
• US rank: #7804

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Howe, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,620

Population outlook (Grayson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 134,540 people
• By 2030: 138,653 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 145,958 · +8.5%
• By 2050: 151,218 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 161,802 · +20.3%
• By 2100: 159,036 · +18.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 9% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Grayson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.3) · D 22.5% · R 76.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: -37.9pp · 2024: -54.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.3 2020: R+49.9 2016: R+53.1 2012: R+48.0 2008: R+37.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.75%
• Current HPI: 249.7211
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-01 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $216,199 NTREIS
• 2026-02-21 Listed $236,999 NTREIS