302 Woodland Ave · Luray, VA 22835

$219,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,625 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1923 0.26 ac lot $135/sqft · 14% below area Est $255k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.8/15.0
• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This charming 2-bedroom, 1 bathroom home has beautifully landscaped outdoor spaces, a peaceful koi pond, and multiple outbuildings offering excellent storage and functionality. Enjoy relaxing evenings under the newer pergola with patio seating space, a small deck with electric lighting, and a welcoming front porch, perfect for coffee or entertaining guests. Inside, you’ll find a dining room with wood floors, a cozy living room with an electric fireplace, and a functional kitchen with painted cabinets, laminate countertops, and new linoleum flooring. Additional highlights include a laundry room with built-in cabinetry, three mini-split systems for efficient heating and cooling, a bathr

Key facts

• Koi pond
• Small deck
• Newer pergola

Tags

• LANDSCAPED OUTDOOR SPACES
• KOI POND
• MULTIPLE OUTBUILDINGS
• NEWER PERGOLA
• PATIO SEATING SPACE
• SMALL DECK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Fee simple ownership; Additional parcels convey with the sale (Parcel #: 42A5-A-8 & Parcel #: 42A5-A-7)

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel and concrete driveway; Driveway parking for 4 vehicles (4 total garage and parking spaces listed)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service
• Home design: Detached structure; Metal roof; Vinyl siding
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Concrete perimeter and block foundation; Metal roof; Detached structure; Year built: estimated
• Exterior features: Porch(es); Shed; Above-grade and below-grade structures

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Electric oven/range; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the upper level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heating; Wall unit heating; Oil and electric heating fuels; Ductless/mini-split cooling (electric)
• Interior features: Unfinished basement; Porch(es)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer on the main floor; Electric hot water

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $219k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3 ($31/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $167k (23.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $167k (23.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.2% in Luray — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#93 in VA, #3,012 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, commute F.
• Page County Public School District (rural): math 42% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #96 of 131 in VA (top 73%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Luray Elementary (math 27% / reading 47%, grade F, #933 of 1,108 statewide, top 86%, 475 students, 88% FRL); Luray Middle (math 42% / reading 66%, grade B-, #205 of 342 statewide, top 61%, 319 students, 77% FRL); Luray High (math 37% / reading 77%, grade C, #263 of 319 statewide, top 84%, 499 students, 69% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 45% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 117 active listings in the ZIP; 164 units permitted in Page County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Page County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1923 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $166,770 (23.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1923 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.05%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $254,804
• List price: $219,000
• Delta: -14.05%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
302 Woodland Ave	0.00mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,625 (0%)	1mo	$221,500	$136	94
206 Woodland Ave	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,727 (+6%)	10mo	$212,500	$123	77
11 Bristol Ave	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,693 (+4%)	2mo	$120,000	$71	74
11 Independence Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,625 (0%)	4mo	$359,900	$221	68
16 Park Ave	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,746 (+7%)	9mo	$320,000	$183	64
125 High St	0.35mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,764 (+9%)	1mo	$305,000	$173	60
1 Rowe Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,650 (+2%)	4mo	$370,000	$224	58
42 Oakcrest Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,717 (+6%)	9mo	$335,000	$195	53
66 N Broad St	0.60mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,654 (+2%)	9mo	$234,000	$141	52
13 Independence Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,758 (+8%)	13mo	$354,000	$201	47
123 E Main St	0.50mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,757 (+8%)	9mo	$299,000	$170	47
1222 E Main St	0.65mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,694 (+4%)	17mo	$239,500	$141	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-35,420
• Equity at exit: $32,654

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-31,025
• Equity at exit: $18,935

Cash invested: $61,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22835

• Home prices YoY: -3.7%
• Active inventory: 117
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,668 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $902/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$350
• Net cashflow: $3

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,664

Max offer price $219,000

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $127	-5% $65	+0% $3	+5% $-59	+10% $-121
Rent	-10% $-129	-5% $-63	+0% $3	+5% $68	+10% $134
Rate	-1.0pp $113	-0.5pp $58	base $3	+0.5pp $-54	+1.0pp $-112

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,750
• Closing costs: $6,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-01
   status $219,000 Pending 5 DOM
2. 2026-05-18
   historical Active Under Contract 1083-char remark
3. 2026-05-13
   listed $219,000 Active 1083-char remark
4. 2019-10-15
   soldstatus $112,000
5. 2019-10-11
   soldstatus $112,000 Closed
6. 2019-09-30
   status Pending
7. 2019-09-09
   historical Active Under Contract
8. 2019-08-21
   listed $114,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $902 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,796 · $150/mo
• Expected delta: +$894/yr (+$74/mo · 99.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,012
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,267
• − Property taxes: −$902
• − Insurance: −$1,095
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,601
• − Management: −$1,601
• − Depreciation: −$6,371
• Taxable loss: −$3,825
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$918
• After-tax cash flow: $949/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Page County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102850
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $43,808
• Composite: 43.77/100
• National rank: #2943
• State rank: #96 of 131 in VA

Livability — Luray

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #93
• US rank: #3012

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Luray, VA
• City population: 11,358
• Population (ZIP): 11,358

Population outlook (Page County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,843 people
• By 2030: 22,147 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 20,427 · -10.6%
• By 2050: 18,461 · -19.2%
• By 2075: 14,363 · -37.1%
• By 2100: 10,678 · -53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Black 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Arabic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Page

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.1) · D 22.5% · R 76.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.7pp toward R · 2008: -17.4pp · 2024: -54.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.1 2020: R+50.6 2016: R+49.8 2012: R+25.7 2008: R+17.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -11.88%
• Current HPI: 312.1156
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+92.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-29 Sold (MLS) $221,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-18 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-13 Listed $219,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-10-15 Sold (Public Records) $112,000 Public Records
• 2019-10-11 Sold (MLS) $112,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-09-30 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-09-09 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-08-21 Listed $114,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $902 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.