Plan 1417 Modeled Plan · San Antonio, TX 78221

$209,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,417 sqft · SingleFamily · 301 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Appreciation +6.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• Rent growth +0.7/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Walk-in closet at primary bedroom and bedroom 2 * Abundant kitchen counter space * Colonial baseboards * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * 42-in. garden tub/shower combination at primary bath * Smart thermostat * Front porch * Open floor plan * Split-bedroom layout * Den * Dedicated laundry room * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near top-rated schools * Commuter-friendly location * Outdoor recreation nearby * Hiking trails nearby

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Walk-in closet
• Front porch

Tags

• WALK-IN CLOSET
• KITCHEN COUNTER SPACE
• GARDEN TUB SHOWER COMBINATION
• SMART THERMOSTAT
• FRONT PORCH
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN

🏗️ New construction. The $209,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $236,399.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-387 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $180k (14.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $158k (24.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $158k (24.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F.
• Harlandale ISD (urban): math 20% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #748 of 826 in TX (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-7.2%/yr); 369 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (2.0% local appreciation)).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 301 days — a 12% lower offer ($185k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $157,802 (24.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 301 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.02%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $236,399
• List price: $209,995
• Delta: -11.17%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
819 Middlebury Farms	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,412 (-0%)	2mo	$253,990	$180	92
1014 Gruma	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,358 (-4%)	2mo	$203,750	$150	71
9888 Chavaneaux Lndg	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,388 (-2%)	3mo	$263,855	$190	68
9907 Chavaneaux Lndg	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,388 (-2%)	3mo	$267,195	$193	67
9939 Auger Run	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,411 (-0%)	3mo	$265,595	$188	66
9915 De Allende Path	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,434 (+1%)	4mo	$215,000	$150	64
9815 De Allende Path	0.58mi	3/2.5	1,470 (+4%)	1mo	$223,500	$152	64
819 Sams Dr	0.48mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-5%)	3mo	$220,000	$164	62
9823 De Allende Path	0.60mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,572 (+11%)	3mo	$219,500	$140	47
9910 Chavaneaux Lndg	0.60mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,585 (+12%)	2mo	$278,100	$175	46
9887 Chavaneaux Lndg	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,585 (+12%)	4mo	$281,525	$178	46
9831 De Allende Path	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,572 (+11%)	4mo	$219,000	$139	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.03% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-12,703
• Equity at exit: $93,606

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-593
• Equity at exit: $135,074

Cash invested: $66,192 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78221

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Rents YoY: -7.2%
• Active inventory: 369
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,578 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,240
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$295 /mo · $3,546/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$331
• Net cashflow: $-387

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,068

Max offer price $180,390

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,100
• Closing costs: $7,092
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9419 Platte Pl San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1780	$1,799	$1.01	11d	1	0.23mi
9406 Hinterlands Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1675	$1,899	$1.13	18d	1	0.25mi
619 Pleasanton Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1336	$1,495	$1.12	24d	1	0.37mi
9879 Chavaneaux Lndg San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1585	$1,700	$1.07	24d	1	0.53mi
8919 Scarlett Pl San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1777	$1,645	$0.93	24d	1	0.63mi
8818 Scarlett Pl San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1645	$1,630	$0.99	24d	1	0.70mi
614 Barberry St Unit 101 San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,095	$0.91	11d	1	0.72mi
614 Barberry St Unit 201 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1718	$1,550	$0.90	44d	1	0.72mi
15949 S Flores St San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1232	$1,475	$1.20	44d	1	0.78mi
15966 S Flores St San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1242	$1,585	$1.28	44d	1	0.80mi
1011 Catalonia Pass San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1470	$1,700	$1.16	24d	1	0.87mi
1015 Catalonia Pass San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,600	$1.25	4d	1	0.87mi
906 E Petaluma Blvd San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	936	$1,450	$1.55	16d	1	0.90mi
8816 Oakbrook St San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1326	$1,595	$1.20	24d	1	0.93mi
102 Emerald Ash Unit 710 San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.0	950	$981	$1.03	3d	1	0.97mi
8815 Oakbrook St San Antonio, TX	3.0	1.0	1160	$1,300	$1.12	44d	1	0.97mi
114 Dorsey St Unit 3 San Antonio, TX	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,150	$1.15	44d	1	1.10mi
114 Dorsey St Unit 2 San Antonio, TX	3.0	1.0	1200	$900	$0.75	44d	1	1.10mi
114 Dorsey St #1 San Antonio, TX	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,150	$0.96	44d	1	1.10mi
1622 Saenz San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,475	$1.14	22d	1	1.18mi
8237 S Flores St Unit 1116 San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.0	910	$1,149	$1.26	44d	1	1.19mi
8237 S Flores St Unit 615 San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.0	910	$915	$1.01	15d	1	1.19mi
8237 S Flores St Unit 710 San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.0	910	$1,032	$1.13	3d	1	1.19mi
407 Creath Pl San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1632	$2,200	$1.35	44d	1	1.20mi
407 Creath Pl San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1632	$2,300	$1.41	24d	1	1.20mi
351 E Amber St San Antonio, TX	3.0	1.0	966	$1,390	$1.44	44d	1	1.36mi
1803 Marshall Cross San Antonio, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	942	$1,425	$1.51	2d	38	1.38mi
3718 Pleasanton Rd Unit 202 San Antonio, TX	3.0	1.0	950	$1,295	$1.36	24d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $209,995 Active 301 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $209,995 Active 300 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $209,995 Active 299 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $209,995 Active 298 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $209,995 Active 296 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $209,995 Active 295 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $209,995 Active 292 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $209,995 Active 291 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $209,995 Active 290 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $219,995 Active 287 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $219,995 Active 286 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $219,995 Active 285 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $219,995 Active 284 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $219,995 Active 283 DOM
15. 2026-05-01
    price $219,995 504-char remark

    Show marketing remark (504 chars)

    * Walk-in closet at primary bedroom and bedroom 2 * Abundant kitchen counter space * Colonial baseboards * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * 42-in. garden tub/shower combination at primary bath * Smart thermostat * Front porch * Open floor plan * Split-bedroom layout * Den * Dedicated laundry room * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near top-rated schools * Commuter-friendly location * Outdoor recreation nearby * Hiking trails nearby

16. 2026-03-07
    price $213,995 504-char remark

    Show marketing remark (504 chars)

    * Walk-in closet at primary bedroom and bedroom 2 * Abundant kitchen counter space * Colonial baseboards * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * 42-in. garden tub/shower combination at primary bath * Smart thermostat * Front porch * Open floor plan * Split-bedroom layout * Den * Dedicated laundry room * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near top-rated schools * Commuter-friendly location * Outdoor recreation nearby * Hiking trails nearby

17. 2026-02-27
    price $218,995 504-char remark

    Show marketing remark (504 chars)

    * Walk-in closet at primary bedroom and bedroom 2 * Abundant kitchen counter space * Colonial baseboards * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * 42-in. garden tub/shower combination at primary bath * Smart thermostat * Front porch * Open floor plan * Split-bedroom layout * Den * Dedicated laundry room * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near top-rated schools * Commuter-friendly location * Outdoor recreation nearby * Hiking trails nearby

18. 2026-01-28
    price $211,995 504-char remark

    Show marketing remark (504 chars)

    * Walk-in closet at primary bedroom and bedroom 2 * Abundant kitchen counter space * Colonial baseboards * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * 42-in. garden tub/shower combination at primary bath * Smart thermostat * Front porch * Open floor plan * Split-bedroom layout * Den * Dedicated laundry room * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near top-rated schools * Commuter-friendly location * Outdoor recreation nearby * Hiking trails nearby

19. 2026-01-19
    price $216,995 504-char remark

    Show marketing remark (504 chars)

    * Walk-in closet at primary bedroom and bedroom 2 * Abundant kitchen counter space * Colonial baseboards * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * 42-in. garden tub/shower combination at primary bath * Smart thermostat * Front porch * Open floor plan * Split-bedroom layout * Den * Dedicated laundry room * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near top-rated schools * Commuter-friendly location * Outdoor recreation nearby * Hiking trails nearby

20. 2025-12-05
    price $211,995 504-char remark

    Show marketing remark (504 chars)

    * Walk-in closet at primary bedroom and bedroom 2 * Abundant kitchen counter space * Colonial baseboards * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * 42-in. garden tub/shower combination at primary bath * Smart thermostat * Front porch * Open floor plan * Split-bedroom layout * Den * Dedicated laundry room * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near top-rated schools * Commuter-friendly location * Outdoor recreation nearby * Hiking trails nearby

21. 2025-10-14
    price $209,995 504-char remark

    Show marketing remark (504 chars)

    * Walk-in closet at primary bedroom and bedroom 2 * Abundant kitchen counter space * Colonial baseboards * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * 42-in. garden tub/shower combination at primary bath * Smart thermostat * Front porch * Open floor plan * Split-bedroom layout * Den * Dedicated laundry room * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near top-rated schools * Commuter-friendly location * Outdoor recreation nearby * Hiking trails nearby

22. 2025-09-29
    price $206,995 504-char remark

    Show marketing remark (504 chars)

    * Walk-in closet at primary bedroom and bedroom 2 * Abundant kitchen counter space * Colonial baseboards * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * 42-in. garden tub/shower combination at primary bath * Smart thermostat * Front porch * Open floor plan * Split-bedroom layout * Den * Dedicated laundry room * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near top-rated schools * Commuter-friendly location * Outdoor recreation nearby * Hiking trails nearby

23. 2025-09-03
    price $204,995 504-char remark

    Show marketing remark (504 chars)

    * Walk-in closet at primary bedroom and bedroom 2 * Abundant kitchen counter space * Colonial baseboards * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * 42-in. garden tub/shower combination at primary bath * Smart thermostat * Front porch * Open floor plan * Split-bedroom layout * Den * Dedicated laundry room * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near top-rated schools * Commuter-friendly location * Outdoor recreation nearby * Hiking trails nearby

24. 2025-08-21
    listed $201,995 Active 504-char remark

    Show marketing remark (504 chars)

    * Walk-in closet at primary bedroom and bedroom 2 * Abundant kitchen counter space * Colonial baseboards * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * 42-in. garden tub/shower combination at primary bath * Smart thermostat * Front porch * Open floor plan * Split-bedroom layout * Den * Dedicated laundry room * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near top-rated schools * Commuter-friendly location * Outdoor recreation nearby * Hiking trails nearby

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,936
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,242
• − Property taxes: −$3,546
• − Insurance: −$1,182
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,515
• − Management: −$1,515
• − Depreciation: −$6,877
• Taxable loss: −$8,941
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,146
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,499/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harlandale ISD
• NCES district ID: 4822470
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $33,850
• Composite: 19.25/100
• National rank: #8806
• State rank: #748 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Antonio, TX
• County: Bexar County · 1,990,555 people
• City population: 1,806,925
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,178
• Household income: $63,811
• Rent vs Own: 29.8% rent · 70.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1180.0

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 89% Two or more races 28% White 9% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 74%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada
• Languages at home: 45% English-only · Spanish 54%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.03%
• Current HPI: 251.1635
• Rent YoY: ▼ -7.21%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+8.9% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $219,995 Zillow
• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $213,995 Zillow
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $218,995 Zillow
• 2026-01-28 Price Changed $211,995 Zillow
• 2026-01-19 Price Changed $216,995 Zillow
• 2025-12-05 Price Changed $211,995 Zillow
• 2025-10-14 Price Changed $209,995 Zillow
• 2025-09-29 Price Changed $206,995 Zillow
• 2025-09-03 Price Changed $204,995 Zillow
• 2025-08-21 Listed $201,995 Zillow