404 Kay · Blytheville, AR 72315

$59,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 962 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 48 Days on market

Built 1967 9,147 sqft lot $62/sqft · 38% above area Est $44k · 38% over ↓ 34% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.8/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This ranch-style home offers comfortable living in Mississippi County Arkansas This property presents a compelling investment opportunity with considerable renovation potential. The three-bedroom, one-bathroom configuration offers flexibility for various improvement strategies. The established neighborhood provides stability and growth prospects for discerning investors. With thoughtful updates and improvements, this home could be transformed into a valuable asset in today's competitive market.

Key facts

• 9,147 sq ft lot
• Listed 48 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $271 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($815 rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $58k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.7% vs local median 6.8% in Blytheville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#168 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, schools F, crime F.
• Blytheville School District (town): math 8% / reading 12% proficiency, ranked #233 of 238 in AR (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 96% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 135 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 69 units permitted in Mississippi County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $414 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mississippi County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($58k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $58,103 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.39%
• DSCR: 1.86
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $43,531
• List price: $59,900
• Delta: 37.60%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
404 Kay	0.00mi	3/1.0	962 (0%)	1mo	$35,600	$37	99
713 Parkway Dr	0.46mi	2/1.0 (-1)	920 (-4%)	4mo	$63,200	$69	63
114 N Hollywood St	0.34mi	3/1.0	1,056 (+10%)	20mo	$65,000	$62	51
827 Mayfair Ln	0.73mi	3/1.0	884 (-8%)	5mo	$60,000	$68	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $7,541
• Equity at exit: $8,931

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.71×
• Total profit: $28,739
• Equity at exit: $5,179

Cash invested: $16,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72315

• Home prices YoY: -32.5%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $815 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$314
• Tax from tax record: −$34 /mo · $410/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$171
• Net cashflow: $271

Break-even live

Break-even rent $472

Max offer price $59,900

Occupancy floor 62%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,975
• Closing costs: $1,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
389 N Hollywood Ave Unit E8 Blytheville, AR	3.0	1.0	833	$850	$1.02	21d	1	0.52mi
389 N Hollywood Ave Unit A10 Blytheville, AR	2.0	1.0	710	$775	$1.09	21d	1	0.52mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Under Contract 499-char remark

   Show marketing remark (499 chars)

   This ranch-style home offers comfortable living in Mississippi County Arkansas This property presents a compelling investment opportunity with considerable renovation potential. The three-bedroom, one-bathroom configuration offers flexibility for various improvement strategies. The established neighborhood provides stability and growth prospects for discerning investors. With thoughtful updates and improvements, this home could be transformed into a valuable asset in today's competitive market.

2. 2026-05-11
   price $59,900 499-char remark

   Show marketing remark (499 chars)

   This ranch-style home offers comfortable living in Mississippi County Arkansas This property presents a compelling investment opportunity with considerable renovation potential. The three-bedroom, one-bathroom configuration offers flexibility for various improvement strategies. The established neighborhood provides stability and growth prospects for discerning investors. With thoughtful updates and improvements, this home could be transformed into a valuable asset in today's competitive market.

3. 2026-05-11
   price $59,900

   Show marketing remark (499 chars)

   This ranch-style home offers comfortable living in Mississippi County Arkansas This property presents a compelling investment opportunity with considerable renovation potential. The three-bedroom, one-bathroom configuration offers flexibility for various improvement strategies. The established neighborhood provides stability and growth prospects for discerning investors. With thoughtful updates and improvements, this home could be transformed into a valuable asset in today's competitive market.

4. 2026-03-27
   price $79,900 499-char remark

   Show marketing remark (499 chars)

   This ranch-style home offers comfortable living in Mississippi County Arkansas This property presents a compelling investment opportunity with considerable renovation potential. The three-bedroom, one-bathroom configuration offers flexibility for various improvement strategies. The established neighborhood provides stability and growth prospects for discerning investors. With thoughtful updates and improvements, this home could be transformed into a valuable asset in today's competitive market.

5. 2026-03-27
   price $79,900

   Show marketing remark (499 chars)

   This ranch-style home offers comfortable living in Mississippi County Arkansas This property presents a compelling investment opportunity with considerable renovation potential. The three-bedroom, one-bathroom configuration offers flexibility for various improvement strategies. The established neighborhood provides stability and growth prospects for discerning investors. With thoughtful updates and improvements, this home could be transformed into a valuable asset in today's competitive market.

6. 2026-03-25
   listed $90,900 New Listing 499-char remark

   Show marketing remark (499 chars)

   This ranch-style home offers comfortable living in Mississippi County Arkansas This property presents a compelling investment opportunity with considerable renovation potential. The three-bedroom, one-bathroom configuration offers flexibility for various improvement strategies. The established neighborhood provides stability and growth prospects for discerning investors. With thoughtful updates and improvements, this home could be transformed into a valuable asset in today's competitive market.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $410 · $34/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $410 · $34/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,786
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,355
• − Property taxes: −$410
• − Insurance: −$300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$783
• − Management: −$783
• − Depreciation: −$1,743
• Taxable income: $2,413
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$579
• After-tax cash flow: $2,673/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Blytheville School District
• NCES district ID: 0503320
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 12% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $33,356
• Composite: 8.02/100
• National rank: #9922
• State rank: #233 of 238 in AR

Livability — Blytheville

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #168
• US rank: #14094

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Blytheville, AR
• City population: 20,100
• Population (ZIP): 20,100

Population outlook (Mississippi County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,959 people
• By 2030: 36,401 · -6.6%
• By 2040: 31,526 · -19.1%
• By 2050: 27,058 · -30.5%
• By 2075: 17,847 · -54.2%
• By 2100: 11,024 · -71.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Black 42% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Mississippi

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.4% · R 65.0% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.4pp toward R · 2008: -2.2pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+22.2 2016: R+10.5 2012: R+1.1 2008: R+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.32%
• Current HPI: 175.5603
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

-34.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — CARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $59,900 CARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $59,900 NEABOR MLS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $79,900 CARMLS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $79,900 NEABOR MLS
• 2026-03-25 Listed $90,900 CARMLS

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $410 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.