16802 W Manchester Dr · Surprise, AZ 85374

$299,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,154 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 2000 6,609 sqft lot $260/sqft · 18% below area Est $366k · 18% under $70/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.4/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come view this 3BR/2BA home, with easy access to the 303 and near golf courses! All new two-tone paint and new carpet throughout. The kitchen includes brand new stainless steel appliances with a large window overlooking the backyard! Master bedroom with bay window and attached bath with shower. Backyard with covered patio and easy to maintain synthetic grass!

Key facts

• 6,609 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2000

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property information sourced from assessor
• HOA & community: HOA with $70 monthly fee; Association fee includes grounds maintenance; Biking/walking path in community

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2 open parking spaces; Attached garage cabinets; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Private water company; Public sewer (connected)
• Home design: Single-family residence; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Stucco and wood frame construction; Tile roof
• Exterior features: Private yard; Desert front landscaping; Desert back landscaping; Synthetic grass in back yard; City-maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Dishwasher; Laminate countertops
• Bedrooms: Up to 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Double vanity; Eat-in kitchen; 3/4 bath in master bedroom; Laminate counters; Dual-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-215 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $262k (12.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (31.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $206k (31.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.3% in Surprise — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in AZ, #4,616 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Canyon Ridge School (math 53% / reading 60%, grade C+, #191 of 1,109 statewide, top 18%, 944 students, 33% FRL); Cimarron Springs Middle School (math 45% / reading 49%, grade D+, #40 of 218 statewide, top 19%, 589 students, 35% FRL); Willow Canyon High School (math 36% / reading 44%, grade F, #70 of 381 statewide, top 18%, 1,787 students, 32% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 406 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $18k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $205,950 (31.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.07%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $365,812
• List price: $299,900
• Delta: -18.02%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16802 W Manchester Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,154 (0%)	1mo	$299,900	$260	100
17580 N Estrella Vista Dr	0.21mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,183 (+2%)	1mo	$274,000	$232	80
16785 W Nottingham Way	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,317 (+14%)	3mo	$365,000	$277	66
16588 W Tasha Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,190 (+3%)	2mo	$328,500	$276	62
16324 W Key Estrella Dr	0.65mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,169 (+1%)	2mo	$320,000	$274	61
16618 W Tasha Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,190 (+3%)	6mo	$320,000	$269	59
16546 W Statler St	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,190 (+3%)	12mo	$349,900	$294	50
16416 W Rock Springs Ln	0.41mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,278 (+11%)	11mo	$390,000	$305	48
16622 W Post Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,305 (+13%)	9mo	$340,000	$261	44
16222 W Silver Falls Dr	0.62mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,264 (+10%)	10mo	$332,000	$263	42
16626 W Tasha Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,311 (+14%)	8mo	$350,000	$267	40
16269 W Cactus Valley Ln	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,278 (+11%)	7mo	$405,000	$317	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-68,171
• Equity at exit: $44,716

10-year hold

• IRR: -29.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.19×
• Total profit: $-99,783
• Equity at exit: $25,930

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85374

• Home prices YoY: -18.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 406
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,060 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$74 /mo · $894/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$70
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$432
• Net cashflow: $-215

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,332

Max offer price $261,896

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-45	-5% $-130	+0% $-215	+5% $-300	+10% $-385
Rent	-10% $-378	-5% $-296	+0% $-215	+5% $-134	+10% $-52
Rate	-1.0pp $-64	-0.5pp $-139	base $-215	+0.5pp $-293	+1.0pp $-372

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16536 W Rock Springs Ln Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1414	$1,995	$1.41	13d	1	0.27mi
16926 W Nottingham Way Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1430	$1,850	$1.29	3d	1	0.39mi
16344 W Crater Ln Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.5	1495	$3,200	$2.14	45d	1	0.50mi
16270 W Cactus Valley Ln Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1338	$1,875	$1.40	45d	1	0.70mi
16166 N 170th Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1366	$1,775	$1.30	26d	1	0.83mi
16755 N Sarival Ave Surprise, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1015	$2,255	$2.22	0d	1	0.86mi
17200 W Bell Rd #1185 Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1026	$1,400	$1.36	45d	1	0.95mi
17009 W Marconi Ave Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1419	$1,862	$1.31	45d	1	0.99mi
16212 N 162nd Ave Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1309	$1,889	$1.44	7d	1	1.01mi
15893 W Arrowhead Dr Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1099	$1,700	$1.55	7d	1	1.03mi
16723 N 160th Ave Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1320	$2,600	$1.97	26d	1	1.05mi
18651 N Salerno Ct Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1178	$1,650	$1.40	45d	1	1.05mi
16719 N 160th Ave Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1320	$1,795	$1.36	26d	1	1.06mi
16712 N 160th Ave Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.5	1199	$1,750	$1.46	13d	1	1.06mi
16712 N 160th Ave Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,850	$1.54	26d	1	1.06mi
15883 W Cisa Rio Ln Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1414	$2,200	$1.56	45d	1	1.07mi
15866 W Cisa Rio Ln Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1414	$3,200	$2.26	45d	1	1.09mi
17701 W Bell Rd Surprise, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	896	$1,949	$2.17	0d	25	1.13mi
16215 W Desert Winds Dr Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1183	$2,800	$2.37	45d	1	1.17mi
15919 W Tasha Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1458	$1,845	$1.27	0d	1	1.22mi
15743 W Elm St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1065	$2,500	$2.35	7d	1	1.27mi
15738 W Elm St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1220	$1,595	$1.31	25d	1	1.27mi
15724 W Smokey Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1220	$1,800	$1.48	26d	1	1.29mi
19352 N Vista Montana Ct Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1262	$1,895	$1.50	14d	1	1.32mi
17785 W Bell Rd Surprise, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1024	$2,068	$2.02	0d	41	1.34mi
17714 W Marshall Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1407	$1,485	$1.06	20d	1	1.39mi
16545 N 157th Ave Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1065	$1,725	$1.62	45d	1	1.44mi
17794 W Rimrock St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1407	$1,800	$1.28	45d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $70 · $840/yr

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Pending 553-char remark
2. 2026-05-06
   price $299,900 553-char remark
3. 2026-05-01
   listed $317,850 Active 553-char remark
4. 2026-04-14
   soldstatus $182,000
5. 2019-01-22
   soldstatus $205,000 Closed 361-char remark

   Show marketing remark (361 chars)

   Come view this 3BR/2BA home, with easy access to the 303 and near golf courses! All new two-tone paint and new carpet throughout. The kitchen includes brand new stainless steel appliances with a large window overlooking the backyard! Master bedroom with bay window and attached bath with shower. Backyard with covered patio and easy to maintain synthetic grass!

6. 2019-01-22
   soldstatus $205,000

   Show marketing remark (361 chars)

   Come view this 3BR/2BA home, with easy access to the 303 and near golf courses! All new two-tone paint and new carpet throughout. The kitchen includes brand new stainless steel appliances with a large window overlooking the backyard! Master bedroom with bay window and attached bath with shower. Backyard with covered patio and easy to maintain synthetic grass!

7. 2019-01-05
   status Pending 361-char remark

   Show marketing remark (361 chars)

   Come view this 3BR/2BA home, with easy access to the 303 and near golf courses! All new two-tone paint and new carpet throughout. The kitchen includes brand new stainless steel appliances with a large window overlooking the backyard! Master bedroom with bay window and attached bath with shower. Backyard with covered patio and easy to maintain synthetic grass!

8. 2018-12-06
   price $209,900 361-char remark

   Show marketing remark (361 chars)

   Come view this 3BR/2BA home, with easy access to the 303 and near golf courses! All new two-tone paint and new carpet throughout. The kitchen includes brand new stainless steel appliances with a large window overlooking the backyard! Master bedroom with bay window and attached bath with shower. Backyard with covered patio and easy to maintain synthetic grass!

9. 2018-09-27
   status Active 361-char remark

   Show marketing remark (361 chars)

   Come view this 3BR/2BA home, with easy access to the 303 and near golf courses! All new two-tone paint and new carpet throughout. The kitchen includes brand new stainless steel appliances with a large window overlooking the backyard! Master bedroom with bay window and attached bath with shower. Backyard with covered patio and easy to maintain synthetic grass!

10. 2018-09-26
    historical 361-char remark

    Show marketing remark (361 chars)

    Come view this 3BR/2BA home, with easy access to the 303 and near golf courses! All new two-tone paint and new carpet throughout. The kitchen includes brand new stainless steel appliances with a large window overlooking the backyard! Master bedroom with bay window and attached bath with shower. Backyard with covered patio and easy to maintain synthetic grass!

11. 2018-09-26
    listed $212,900 Active 361-char remark

    Show marketing remark (361 chars)

    Come view this 3BR/2BA home, with easy access to the 303 and near golf courses! All new two-tone paint and new carpet throughout. The kitchen includes brand new stainless steel appliances with a large window overlooking the backyard! Master bedroom with bay window and attached bath with shower. Backyard with covered patio and easy to maintain synthetic grass!

12. 2018-08-31
    soldstatus $191,781
13. 2000-12-29
    soldstatus $82,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $894 · $74/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,979 · $165/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,086/yr (+$90/mo · 121.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,714
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$894
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,977
• − Management: −$1,977
• − HOA: −$840
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$7,997
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,919
• After-tax cash flow: $-662/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dysart Unified District (4243)
• NCES district ID: 0402690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,033
• Composite: 32.76/100
• National rank: #5634
• State rank: #73 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Surprise

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #4616

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Surprise, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 160,031
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 41,420
• Household income: $81,201
• Rent vs Own: 23.1% rent · 76.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1120.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.93%
• Current HPI: 254.7782
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.14%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+265.7% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Sold (MLS) $299,900 ARMLS
• 2026-06-02 Sold (Public Records) $299,900 Public Records
• 2026-05-13 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $299,900 ARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $317,850 ARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Sold (Public Records) $182,000 Public Records
• 2019-01-22 Sold (Public Records) $205,000 Public Records
• 2019-01-22 Sold (MLS) $205,000 ARMLS
• 2019-01-05 Pending — ARMLS
• 2018-12-06 Price Changed $209,900 ARMLS
• 2018-09-27 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2018-09-26 Listed $212,900 ARMLS
• 2018-09-26 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2018-08-31 Sold (Public Records) $191,781 Public Records
• 2000-12-29 Sold (Public Records) $82,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $894 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.