8545 Mission Gorge Rd Spc 211 · Santee, CA 92071

$225,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 812 sqft · SingleFamily · 104 Days on market

Built 2019 ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.0/30.0
• DSCR +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

NEWLY REDUCED! You will love this newer, move-in ready, 2BR/2BA manufactured home located at Mission Gorge Villas, a 55+ community! The modern kitchen features a large island with pull out drawers. All appliances, that includes refrigerator, microwave, dishwasher, and gas stove are Stainless Steel & convey. This home comes with a large shed and a smaller shed & the unit has central A/C. There are 3 ceiling fans throughout. The location is convenient to Costco, Home Depot, Loew's, Trader Joe's, etc. and recreational areas such as Santee Lakes for fishing and Cowles Mountains for walking/hiking. Also, conveniently close to the I-52 and I-125 freeways. The community has a clubhouse

Key facts

• Natural lighting
• Ceiling fans
• Central a/c

Tags

• NATURAL LIGHTING
• LARGE ISLAND
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• LARGE SHED
• CENTRAL A/C
• CEILING FANS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Parcel number 7738311750; Directions: When coming from East entrance, make 2 rights to get to property. When coming from West entrance, make immediate left upon entry to park.
• Financial info: Monthly land lease of $1,346
• HOA & community: Senior community; Street lighting; Located in Mission Gorge Villas (land-lease park)

Exterior

• Parking: Two parking spaces; Two carport spaces
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home remains on site; Single-story; Mobile home dimensions approximately 20' x 46'
• Construction: Mobile/manufactured construction
• Exterior features: Indoor pool access; Community pool; Corner lot; Close to clubhouse; Two sheds

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central cooling
• Interior features: One-level home; Front and side door entries
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $630 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $225k).
• Recommended offer: $205k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 2.7% in Santee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#361 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities D, cost of living F.
• Santee (suburban): math 46% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #130 of 517 in CA (top 25%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 197 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($205k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $204,750 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.00%
• DSCR: 1.53
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $645,540
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8626 Prospect Ave	0.24mi	3/1.0 (+1)	906 (+12%)	9mo	$720,000	$795	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.85% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-2,136
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.43×
• Total profit: $26,972
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92071

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 197
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,766 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$281 /mo · $3,375/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$581
• Net cashflow: $630

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,968

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $786	-5% $708	+0% $630	+5% $552	+10% $475
Rent	-10% $412	-5% $521	+0% $630	+5% $739	+10% $849
Rate	-1.0pp $744	-0.5pp $687	base $630	+0.5pp $572	+1.0pp $513

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8605 Arminda Cir Santee, CA	2.0	2.0	958	$2,650	$2.77	0d	1	0.10mi
8609 Arminda Cir #13 Santee, CA	2.0	2.0	984	$3,000	$3.05	0d	1	0.12mi
7962 Arly Ct #12 Santee, CA	2.0	2.0	945	$2,800	$2.96	0d	1	0.66mi
7847 Mission Gorge Rd Santee, CA	1.0	1.0–2.0	870	$2,845	$3.27	0d	4	0.75mi
7855 Rancho Fanita Dr Unit A Santee, CA	3.0	1.5	1116	$3,200	$2.87	0d	1	0.80mi
9205 Carlton Oaks Dr Santee, CA	1.0	1.0	594	$1,925	$3.24	0d	1	0.88mi
8009 Calle Fanita Santee, CA	2.0	1.5	1024	$2,995	$2.92	0d	1	0.95mi
9249 Carlton Oaks Dr Santee, CA	1.0	1.0	594	$1,715	$2.89	0d	1	0.99mi
8617 Bushy Hill Dr Santee, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.0	1299	$2,700	$2.08	0d	1	1.28mi
9525 Mission Gorge Rd Santee, CA	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	901	$2,195	$2.44	0d	4	1.28mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 104 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 103 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 102 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 101 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 99 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 98 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $225,000 Active 95 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $225,000 Active 94 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $225,000 Active 93 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $225,000 Active 90 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $225,000 Active 89 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $225,000 Active 88 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $225,000 Active 87 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,000 Active 86 DOM
15. 2026-05-01
    price $225,000
16. 2026-02-28
    listed $245,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 5 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,192
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$3,375
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,655
• − Management: −$2,655
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable income: $4,233
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,016
• After-tax cash flow: $6,547/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santee
• NCES district ID: 0635880
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $73,452
• Composite: 45.0/100
• National rank: #2698
• State rank: #130 of 517 in CA

Livability — Santee

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #361
• US rank: #12272

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Santee, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 59,590
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 59,590
• Household income: $113,618
• Rent vs Own: 27.6% rent · 72.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1719.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 16% Asian 5% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 8% Arabic 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -607.00%
• Current HPI: 393.1781
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.85%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-8.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $225,000 CRMLS
• 2026-02-28 Listed $245,000 CRMLS