L13A Rileys Cv · Big Lake, AK 99652

$575,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,212 sqft · SingleFamily · 20 Days on market

Built 2015 0.68 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.7/30.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lakefront Paradise with Nearly 300 Feet of Waterfront! Discover the ultimate lakefront retreat in this stunning 4-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom home, meticulously rebuilt in 2016. With nearly 300 feet of serene lake frontage, this property offers the perfect setting for waterfront living, complete with easy access for boats, floatplanes, and more. Tucked away in a peaceful cove, just a short boat... from Burke-shore Marina, you'll enjoy the best of both worlds: seclusion and proximity to nearby amenities. This home is a haven for lake enthusiasts, blending a tranquil escape with convenient access to the vibrant lake community. Property Highlights: Outdoor Features: Keep your watercraft and toys safe and organized in the spacious 2-bay detached garage with shop space, perfect for storing speedboats, fishing boats, or even a floatplane. The drive-up dock makes launching and retrieving your toys a breeze. Interior Comforts: Designed with both style and functionality in mind, the open-concept living areas create a warm and inviting space for entertaining. Four generously sized bedrooms provide ample space for family and guests. Modern Amenities: Enjoy in-floor heating, an on-demand water heater, new windows, and updated utilities, including a well, septic system, electricity, internet, and a washer/dryer. Additional Perks: A variety of recreational items are available for separate purchase, including a floating barge, pontoon boat, wave runners, kayaks, and more. Seasonal Access: While road access is available only in the winter via the ice road, this unique feature enhances the home's secluded charm. Whether you're seeking a full-time residence or a seasonal getaway, this lakefront property is your gateway to adventure and relaxation. Don't miss your chance to own a slice of lakeside paradise!

Key facts

• Stunning lake views
• Expansive windows
• In-floor heat

Tags

• 300 FEET OF SHORELINE
• PROTECTED COVE
• SPACIOUS OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• EXPANSIVE WINDOWS
• STUNNING LAKE VIEWS
• IN-FLOOR HEAT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Accessible via ice road from Big Lake North Campground in winter or by boat/float plane in summer

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Residential property; Detached; Wood frame construction; Built in 2015
• Construction: Wood frame construction; Composition/shingle/asphalt roof; Built in 2015
• Exterior features: Dock; Water view; Waterfront property

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 total bathrooms (2 full, 1 three-quarter)
• Heating & cooling: Wood stove
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; CO detector(s); Smoke detector(s); Telephone; Window coverings; Wood stove

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $575k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $575k).
• Recommended offer: $566k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 3.3% in Big Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#99 in AK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District (town): math 42% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #5 of 21 in AK (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Big Lake Elementary (math 37% / reading 32%, grade F, #93 of 156 statewide, top 66%, 382 students, 74% FRL); Houston Middle School (329 students, 0% FRL); Houston High School (math 22% / reading 31%, grade F, #41 of 61 statewide, top 67%, 358 students, 57% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 46% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 118 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 91 units permitted in Matanuska-Susitna Borough in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Matanuska-Susitna County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $161k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($566k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $566,375 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
4. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
5. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.60%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.05×
• Total profit: $168,495
• Equity at exit: $258,545

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.86×
• Total profit: $461,144
• Equity at exit: $398,449

Cash invested: $161,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99652

• Active inventory: 118
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,015
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$719 /mo · $8,625/yr
• Insurance: −$240
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,470
• Net cashflow: $1,556

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,030

Max offer price $575,000

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $143,750
• Closing costs: $17,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4252 Old Yacht Club Rd Wasilla, AK	3.0	3.0	4276	$7,000	$1.64	43d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $575,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $575,000 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $575,000 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $575,000 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $575,000 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $575,000 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $575,000 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $575,000 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $575,000 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $575,000 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $575,000 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $575,000 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $575,000 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $575,000 Active 2 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    remarks 699-char remark
16. 2026-05-30
    listed $575,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $84,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$32,209
• − Property taxes: −$8,625
• − Insurance: −$2,875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,720
• − Management: −$6,720
• − Depreciation: −$16,727
• Taxable income: $10,124
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,430
• After-tax cash flow: $16,246/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200510
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,325
• Composite: 41.38/100
• National rank: #3484
• State rank: #5 of 21 in AK

Livability — Big Lake

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #99
• US rank: #20971

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime B Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Big Lake, AK
• City population: 4,066
• Population (ZIP): 4,066

Population outlook (Matanuska-Susitna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 126,730 people
• By 2030: 139,641 · +10.2%
• By 2040: 165,122 · +30.3%
• By 2050: 189,697 · +49.7%
• By 2075: 249,959 · +97.2%
• By 2100: 288,077 · +127.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Matanuska-Susitna

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+130.1% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $575,000 AKMLS
• 2025-07-05 Sold (MLS) — AKMLS
• 2025-04-01 Pending — AKMLS
• 2025-01-03 Listed $525,000 AKMLS
• 2024-06-18 Price Changed $524,900 AKMLS
• 2024-05-21 Listed $549,000 AKMLS
• 2024-01-15 Listed $579,000 AKMLS
• 2023-08-24 Price Changed $569,000 AKMLS
• 2023-05-30 Listed $579,000 AKMLS
• 2023-02-12 Listed $579,000 AKMLS
• 2015-06-26 Listed $219,000 AKMLS
• 2013-08-22 Listed $249,900 AKMLS