3100 Ward Pl #30 · Anchorage, AK 99517

$153,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 865 sqft · Condo public records · 105 Days on market

Built 1977 $177/sqft · 45% below area Est $277k · 45% under $525/mo HOA · 33% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

WHY RENT WHEN YOU CAN BUY?!?!?! Thank you for your views & feedback on this Turnagain condo. Near the Coastal Trail, airport & downtown! Seller offering $4,000 plus NEW hot water heater, dishwasher & disposal with warranties. Walls prepped for paint--ready for your personal touch. Great opportunity in a desirable Anchorage location!

Key facts

• $525 HOA
• Garage
• Built 1977

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $153k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-275 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $104k (31.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $153k).
• Recommended offer: $104k (31.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#6 in AK, #2,553 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Anchorage School District (urban): math 37% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #6 of 21 in AK (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 64 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 306 units permitted in Anchorage Municipality in 2024 (90 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Anchorage County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($139k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 30y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 33% of rent.

Recommended offer $104,402 (31.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 4.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.71%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $276,705
• List price: $153,000
• Delta: -44.71%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-41,523
• Equity at exit: $22,813

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.29×
• Total profit: $-55,472
• Equity at exit: $13,229

Cash invested: $42,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99517

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 64
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,584 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$802
• Tax from tax record: −$135 /mo · $1,620/yr
• Insurance: −$64
• HOA: −$525
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$333
• Net cashflow: $-275

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,932

Max offer price $104,402

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-188	-5% $-232	+0% $-275	+5% $-318	+10% $-362
Rent	-10% $-400	-5% $-338	+0% $-275	+5% $-213	+10% $-150
Rate	-1.0pp $-198	-0.5pp $-236	base $-275	+0.5pp $-315	+1.0pp $-355

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,250
• Closing costs: $4,590
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3101 W 31st Ave Unit 7 Anchorage, AK	1.0	1.0	750	$1,300	$1.73	44d	1	0.50mi
3007 W 33rd Ave Unit 1 Anchorage, AK	1.0	1.0	600	$1,450	$2.42	44d	1	0.52mi
2805 W 31st Ave #22 Anchorage, AK	2.0	1.0	850	$1,395	$1.64	15d	1	0.63mi
2810 W Northern Lights Blvd Unit 11 Anchorage, AK	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,825	$1.74	15d	1	0.66mi
2810 W Northern Lights Blvd Unit 14 Anchorage, AK	2.0	1.0	850	$1,595	$1.88	44d	1	0.66mi
2810 W Northern Lights Blvd Unit 1 Anchorage, AK	2.0	1.0	850	$1,595	$1.88	15d	1	0.66mi
3401 Lakeshore Dr Anchorage, AK	2.0	2.0	1050	$2,295	$2.19	15d	1	0.79mi
3105 Lakeshore Dr Unit 406B Anchorage, AK	1.0	1.0	669	$2,000	$2.99	22d	1	0.95mi
3907 Carolina Dr Unit 2 Anchorage, AK	1.0	1.0	600	$1,375	$2.29	15d	1	1.07mi
2101 W 29th Ave Anchorage, AK	1.0	1.0	854	$1,295	$1.52	24d	1	1.13mi
2101 W 29th Ave Anchorage, AK	1.0	1.0	864	$1,600	$1.85	44d	1	1.13mi
3051 Lois Dr #508 Anchorage, AK	1.0	1.0	580	$1,400	$2.41	44d	1	1.26mi
3606 Oregon Dr Unit 5 Anchorage, AK	1.0	1.0	650	$1,425	$2.19	15d	1	1.29mi
3061 Lois Dr Anchorage, AK	1.0	1.0	567	$1,475	$2.60	24d	2	1.30mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $525 · $6,300/yr
• Likely covers: water
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $153,000 Active 105 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $153,000 Active 104 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $153,000 Active 103 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $153,000 Active 102 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $153,000 Active 100 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $153,000 Active 99 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $153,000 Active 97 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $153,000 Active 96 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $153,000 Active 95 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $153,000 Active 94 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    remarks 398-char remark
12. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $153,000 Active 90 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $154,000 Active 89 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $154,000 Active 88 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $154,000 Active 87 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $154,000 Active 86 DOM
17. 2026-04-30
    price $154,000 346-char remark

    Show marketing remark (346 chars)

    WHY RENT WHEN YOU CAN BUY?!?!?! Thank you for your views & feedback on this Turnagain condo. Near the Coastal Trail, airport & downtown! Seller offering $4,000 plus NEW hot water heater, dishwasher & disposal with warranties. Walls prepped for paint--ready for your personal touch. Great opportunity in a desirable Anchorage location!

18. 2026-03-05
    listed $155,000 Active 346-char remark

    Show marketing remark (346 chars)

    WHY RENT WHEN YOU CAN BUY?!?!?! Thank you for your views & feedback on this Turnagain condo. Near the Coastal Trail, airport & downtown! Seller offering $4,000 plus NEW hot water heater, dishwasher & disposal with warranties. Walls prepped for paint--ready for your personal touch. Great opportunity in a desirable Anchorage location!

19. 2008-10-16
    soldstatus
20. 2008-08-14
    listed $105,000
21. 2007-02-20
    soldstatus
22. 2006-12-02
    listed $105,000
23. 2002-05-01
    soldstatus
24. 2002-03-07
    listed $63,900
25. 2002-02-25
    listed $63,500
26. 1996-06-10
    listed $40,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,620 · $135/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,720 · $143/mo
• Expected delta: +$100/yr (+$8/mo · 6.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,002
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,570
• − Property taxes: −$1,620
• − Insurance: −$765
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,520
• − Management: −$1,520
• − HOA: −$6,300
• − Depreciation: −$4,451
• Taxable loss: −$5,744
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,379
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,923/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Anchorage School District
• NCES district ID: 0200180
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $76,447
• Composite: 37.0/100
• National rank: #4523
• State rank: #6 of 21 in AK

Livability — Anchorage

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #2553

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Anchorage, AK
• County: Anchorage Borough · 246,594 people
• City population: 218,117
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• Population (ZIP): 16,486
• Household income: $103,880
• Rent vs Own: 39.9% rent · 60.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 643.0

Population outlook (Anchorage County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 314,993 people
• By 2030: 321,771 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 335,493 · +6.5%
• By 2050: 352,799 · +12.0%
• By 2075: 414,771 · +31.7%
• By 2100: 474,485 · +50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Two or more races 10% Asian 9% Native American 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 4% Pacific Islander 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Italian 2% Slovene 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Tagalog/Filipino 4% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Anchorage

• 2024 margin: D (+12.7) · D 56.3% · R 43.7%
• 2016→2024 swing: +27.9pp toward D · 2016: -15.2pp · 2024: 12.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.7 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -193.57%
• Current HPI: 298.4457
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.30%
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+285.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $154,000 AKMLS
• 2026-03-05 Listed $155,000 AKMLS
• 2008-10-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-08-14 Listed $105,000 AKMLS
• 2007-02-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-12-02 Listed $105,000 AKMLS
• 2002-05-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-03-07 Listed $63,900 AKMLS
• 2002-02-25 Listed $63,500 AKMLS
• 1996-06-10 Listed $40,000 AKMLS

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2021): $1,620 · -2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.