9393 Boncrest St · Commerce, MI 48382

$825,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,696 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 68 Days on market

Built 1941 0.34 ac lot $486/sqft · 160% above area $2/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Bring your vision and make this 3-bedroom, 2-full-bath home your dream lakefront retreat! Situated on desirable Lower Straits all-sports lake with 100 feet of waterfront, you’ll enjoy boating, swimming, skiing, or simply relaxing by the water. Take in beautiful lake views from most rooms. The spacious living/dining room features a cozy wood-burning stove and a doorwall leading to the patio—perfect for outdoor entertaining. The large primary bedroom offers plenty of space, while a versatile flex room can serve as a den, home office, or extra bedroom. Gas forced-air heat warms the main floor (brand-new furnace installed February 2024), with electric heat upstairs. Central air conditioning serves the first floor. Additional features include a 2-car garage, storage shed, and a generous property spanning 4 lots. This home is ready for your updates and TLC—giving you the opportunity to design it to your style. Don’t miss the chance to own a lakefront property where every day feels like a vacation!

Key facts

• 0.34 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1941

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $825k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5k ($55k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($12k rent vs $825k).
• Recommended offer: $776k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Walled Lake Consolidated Schools (suburban): math 52% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #58 of 540 in MI (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 173 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,614 units permitted in Oakland County in 2024 (721 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $25k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oakland County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $231k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($776k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1941 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $775,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1941 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.94%
• DSCR: 2.07
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $317,818
• List price: $825,000
• Delta: 159.58%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3166 Arbutus St	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,708 (+1%)	4mo	$280,000	$164	90
3090 Twinleaf St	0.18mi	3/1.0	1,644 (-3%)	3mo	$315,000	$192	80
3220 Chenoa St	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,794 (+6%)	8mo	$299,900	$167	73
3266 Rio Vista St	0.16mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,601 (-6%)	5mo	$269,900	$169	70
9252 Garden Ter	0.27mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,584 (-7%)	3mo	$250,000	$158	69
9100 Pittsfield St	0.31mi	3/2.5	1,843 (+9%)	1mo	$365,000	$198	68
9050 Marilyn Ter	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,788 (+5%)	10mo	$610,000	$341	65
3142 Mapledale St	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,454 (-14%)	9mo	$312,000	$215	57
9220 Garden Ter	0.28mi	3/1.0	1,872 (+10%)	12mo	$280,000	$150	56
144 Bobolink Ave	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,700 (+0%)	8mo	$280,000	$165	56
9681 Listeria St	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,480 (-13%)	18mo	$300,000	$203	51
157 Cardinal St	0.69mi	3/1.5	1,500 (-12%)	11mo	$231,000	$154	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.69×
• Total profit: $159,564
• Equity at exit: $123,010

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.23×
• Total profit: $515,688
• Equity at exit: $71,331

Cash invested: $231,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48382

• Active inventory: 173
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $12,037 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,326
• Tax from tax record: −$228 /mo · $2,737/yr
• Insurance: −$344
• HOA: −$2
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,528
• Net cashflow: $4,609

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,203

Max offer price $825,000

Occupancy floor 57%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $5,076	-5% $4,843	+0% $4,609	+5% $4,376	+10% $4,142
Rent	-10% $3,658	-5% $4,134	+0% $4,609	+5% $5,085	+10% $5,560
Rate	-1.0pp $5,025	-0.5pp $4,819	base $4,609	+0.5pp $4,395	+1.0pp $4,178

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $206,250
• Closing costs: $24,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3221 Union Lake Rd Commerce Charter Twp, MI	3.0	1.5	1360	$1,950	$1.43	25d	1	1.22mi
4575 Oakestia St Unit 1032322P Commerce Township, MI	3.0	2.0	1991	$22,512	$11.31	22d	1	1.35mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $2 · $24/yr
• Likely covers: watergaselectric

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $825,000 Active 68 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $825,000 Active 67 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $825,000 Active 66 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $825,000 Active 65 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $825,000 Active 63 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $825,000 Active 62 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $825,000 Active 59 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $825,000 Active 58 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $825,000 Active 57 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $848,999 Active 54 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $848,999 Active 53 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $848,999 Active 52 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $848,999 Active 51 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $848,999 Active 50 DOM
15. 2026-04-11
    listed $848,999 Active 1030-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1030 chars)

    Bring your vision and make this 3-bedroom, 2-full-bath home your dream lakefront retreat! Situated on desirable Lower Straits all-sports lake with 100 feet of waterfront, you’ll enjoy boating, swimming, skiing, or simply relaxing by the water. Take in beautiful lake views from most rooms. The spacious living/dining room features a cozy wood-burning stove and a doorwall leading to the patio—perfect for outdoor entertaining. The large primary bedroom offers plenty of space, while a versatile flex room can serve as a den, home office, or extra bedroom. Gas forced-air heat warms the main floor (brand-new furnace installed February 2024), with electric heat upstairs. Central air conditioning serves the first floor. Additional features include a 2-car garage, storage shed, and a generous property spanning 4 lots. This home is ready for your updates and TLC—giving you the opportunity to design it to your style. Don’t miss the chance to own a lakefront property where every day feels like a vacation!

16. 2026-04-10
    listed $848,999 Active 1010-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1010 chars)

    Bring your vision and make this 3-bedroom, 2-full-bath home your dream lakefront retreat! Situated on desirable Lower Straits all-sports lake with 100 feet of waterfront, you'll enjoy boating, swimming, skiing, or simply relaxing by the water. Take in beautiful lake views from most rooms. The spacious living/dining room features a cozy wood-burning stove and a doorwall leading to the patio - perfect for outdoor entertaining. The large primary bedroom offers plenty of space, while a versatile flex room can serve as a den, home office, or extra bedroom. Gas forced-air heat warms the main floor (brand-new furnace installed February 2024), with electric heat upstairs. Central air conditioning serves the first floor. Additional features include a 2-car garage, storage shed, and a generous property spanning 4 lots. This home is ready for your updates and TLC - giving you the opportunity to design it to your style. Don't miss the chance to own a lakefront property where every day feels like a vacation!

17. 2025-10-29
    historical
18. 2025-08-07
    listed $849,900 Active
19. 2025-08-07
    listed $849,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,737 · $228/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,721 · $643/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,984/yr (+$415/mo · 182.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $144,446
• − Mortgage interest: −$46,213
• − Property taxes: −$2,737
• − Insurance: −$4,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$11,556
• − Management: −$11,556
• − HOA: −$24
• − Depreciation: −$24,000
• Taxable income: $44,236
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$10,617
• After-tax cash flow: $44,693/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Walled Lake Consolidated Schools
• NCES district ID: 2635160
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $69,184
• Composite: 49.57/100
• National rank: #1987
• State rank: #58 of 540 in MI

Livability — Commerce

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 23,550

Population outlook (Oakland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,335,747 people
• By 2030: 1,375,100 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 1,435,385 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 1,469,250 · +10.0%
• By 2075: 1,531,946 · +14.7%
• By 2100: 1,450,485 · +8.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 3% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oakland

• 2024 margin: D (+10.6) · D 54.4% · R 43.8% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: 14.5pp · 2024: 10.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.6 2020: D+14.1 2016: D+8.1 2012: D+8.1 2008: D+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -265.18%
• Current HPI: 202.3058
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-0.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Listed $848,999 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-10 Listed $848,999 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-10-29 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-08-07 Listed $849,900 REALCOMP
• 2025-08-07 Listed $849,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

-2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,737 · -44.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.