16 Thomas Ln · Chaska, MN 55318

$60,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 728 sqft · Manufactured · 296 Days on market

Built 2025

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this charming, cozy, and move in ready home! Thoughtfully designed with a modern touch, this home features sleek lines, stylish finishes, and an open concept layout that creates a bright and inviting atmosphere perfect for both relaxing and entertaining. Brand new well appointed two bedroom home offers comfortable, low maintenance living. Enjoy features like a spacious walk in shower and the convenience of a one car garage. Located in the welcoming community of Brandondale Estates in Chaska, MN, this home is ideal for singles, couples, or empty nesters seeking a manageable and comfortable lifestyle. Offered at just $60,900, this home is an excellent opportunity for affordable liv

Key facts

• Built 2025
• Listed 296 days

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• ENERGY-EFFICIENT CONSTRUCTION
• QUIET WELL-KEPT COMMUNITY

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $60,900

Exterior

• Home design: Single-section home (2 bed, 1 bath); Spec home
• Exterior features: Living area of 728 (listed)

Interior

• Kitchen: Includes dishwasher, disposal, and refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $61k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $61k).
• Recommended offer: $54k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 26.1% vs local median 2.5% in Chaska — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#75 in MN, #1,802 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Eastern Carver County Public School (suburban): math 52% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #41 of 301 in MN (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 295 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 682 units permitted in Carver County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $421 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Carver County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 296 days — a 12% lower offer ($54k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $53,592 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 296 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.97% ✓
• Cap rate: 26.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 70.89%
• DSCR: 4.15
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 70.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.18×
• Total profit: $54,278
• Equity at exit: $9,080

10-year hold

• IRR: 74.5%
• Equity multiple: 8.61×
• Total profit: $129,836
• Equity at exit: $5,266

Cash invested: $17,052 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55318

• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 295
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,808 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$319
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$76 /mo · $914/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$380
• Net cashflow: $1,007

Break-even live

Break-even rent $533

Max offer price $60,900

Occupancy floor 39%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,225
• Closing costs: $1,827
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16 Thomas Ln Unit 431 Chaska, MN	2.0	1.0	728	$1,729	$2.38	24d	1	0.03mi
135 Crosstown Blvd Ste A Chaska, MN	1.0	1.0	731	$1,165	$1.59	1d	2	0.82mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $60,900 Active 296 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $60,900 Active 295 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $60,900 Active 294 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $60,900 Active 293 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $60,900 Active 291 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $60,900 Active 290 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $60,900 Active 287 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $60,900 Active 286 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $60,900 Active 285 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $60,900 Active 282 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $60,900 Active 281 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $60,900 Active 280 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $60,900 Active 279 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $60,900 Active 278 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,694
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,411
• − Property taxes: −$914
• − Insurance: −$304
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,735
• − Management: −$1,735
• − Depreciation: −$1,772
• Taxable income: $11,822
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,837
• After-tax cash flow: $9,250/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Eastern Carver County Public School
• NCES district ID: 2708190
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $87,010
• Composite: 51.68/100
• National rank: #1694
• State rank: #41 of 301 in MN

Livability — Chaska

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #75
• US rank: #1802

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chaska, MN
• County: Carver County · 77,775 people
• City population: 30,369
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 30,369
• Household income: $112,243
• Rent vs Own: 30.9% rent · 69.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 454.0

Population outlook (Carver County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 115,077 people
• By 2030: 122,880 · +6.8%
• By 2040: 137,210 · +19.2%
• By 2050: 148,524 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 174,624 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 185,806 · +61.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 8% Asian 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 12% Lithuanian 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Carver

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.4) · D 46.3% · R 51.7% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.7pp toward D · 2008: -15.1pp · 2024: -5.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.4 2020: R+4.9 2016: R+13.7 2012: R+19.7 2008: R+15.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -167.82%
• Current HPI: 209.4969
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.98%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B