206 N Broadway St · Carl Junction, MO 64834

$215,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,814 sqft · Other · 17 Days on market

Built 1952 0.29 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious 5-bedroom, 2-bath home offering plenty of room inside and out. Situated on a large lot, this property features a generously sized kitchen ideal for cooking and gathering. Enjoy outdoor living with a covered front porch and a large backyard deck, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Ample parking and storage with two 1-car detached garages plus a 2-car carport. Conveniently located near Carl Junction schools, providing easy access to local amenities while maintaining a comfortable residential setting.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Ample parking
• Large lot

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• GENEROUSLY SIZED KITCHEN
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• LARGE BACKYARD DECK
• AMPLE PARKING
• TWO DETACHED GARAGES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-137 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $191k (11.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (30.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $150k (30.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.2% in Carl Junction — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#169 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Carl Junction R-I (suburban): math 42% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #57 of 324 in MO (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Carl Junction Primary K-1 (670 students, 37% FRL); Carl Junction Intermediate (math 35% / reading 50%, grade D-, #140 of 391 statewide, top 38%, 777 students, 36% FRL); Carl Junction High School (math 50% / reading 69%, grade C+, #35 of 521 statewide, top 8%, 960 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools at 35% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 129 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 602 units permitted in Jasper County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,000 (30.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.72%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-43,616
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-49,499
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64834

• Home prices YoY: -13.2%
• Active inventory: 129
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$105 /mo · $1,254/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $-137

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,673

Max offer price $190,874

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-15	-5% $-76	+0% $-137	+5% $-197	+10% $-258
Rent	-10% $-255	-5% $-196	+0% $-137	+5% $-77	+10% $-18
Rate	-1.0pp $-28	-0.5pp $-82	base $-137	+0.5pp $-192	+1.0pp $-249

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
702 Nicholas Ln Carl Junction, MO	4.0	2.0	1450	$1,500	$1.03	45d	1	0.48mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending 515-char remark

   Show marketing remark (515 chars)

   Spacious 5-bedroom, 2-bath home offering plenty of room inside and out. Situated on a large lot, this property features a generously sized kitchen ideal for cooking and gathering. Enjoy outdoor living with a covered front porch and a large backyard deck, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Ample parking and storage with two 1-car detached garages plus a 2-car carport. Conveniently located near Carl Junction schools, providing easy access to local amenities while maintaining a comfortable residential setting.

2. 2026-04-17
   listed $215,000 Active 515-char remark

   Show marketing remark (515 chars)

   Spacious 5-bedroom, 2-bath home offering plenty of room inside and out. Situated on a large lot, this property features a generously sized kitchen ideal for cooking and gathering. Enjoy outdoor living with a covered front porch and a large backyard deck, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Ample parking and storage with two 1-car detached garages plus a 2-car carport. Conveniently located near Carl Junction schools, providing easy access to local amenities while maintaining a comfortable residential setting.

3. 2022-08-26
   soldstatus Closed 273-char remark

   Show marketing remark (273 chars)

   Within walking distance to Carl Junction schools, this home may be the perfect one for you. This 5 bedroom home has great room for entertaining, a spacious kitchen, and a large fenced in backyard. New flooring and hot water heater in 2022. Call today for a private showing.

4. 2022-08-01
   status Pending 273-char remark

   Show marketing remark (273 chars)

   Within walking distance to Carl Junction schools, this home may be the perfect one for you. This 5 bedroom home has great room for entertaining, a spacious kitchen, and a large fenced in backyard. New flooring and hot water heater in 2022. Call today for a private showing.

5. 2022-07-25
   listed $159,950 Active 273-char remark

   Show marketing remark (273 chars)

   Within walking distance to Carl Junction schools, this home may be the perfect one for you. This 5 bedroom home has great room for entertaining, a spacious kitchen, and a large fenced in backyard. New flooring and hot water heater in 2022. Call today for a private showing.

6. 2020-05-26
   soldstatus
7. 2020-05-22
   soldstatus
8. 2020-03-09
   listed $132,000
9. 2000-07-28
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,254 · $105/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,086 · $174/mo
• Expected delta: +$831/yr (+$69/mo · 66.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$1,254
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,440
• − Management: −$1,440
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$5,507
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,322
• After-tax cash flow: $-317/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carl Junction R-I
• NCES district ID: 2907350
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $53,866
• Composite: 41.04/100
• National rank: #3580
• State rank: #57 of 324 in MO

Livability — Carl Junction

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #9146

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carl Junction, MO
• City population: 10,476
• Population (ZIP): 10,476

Population outlook (Jasper County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 120,033 people
• By 2030: 120,091 · +0.0%
• By 2040: 119,297 · -0.6%
• By 2050: 117,705 · -1.9%
• By 2075: 110,402 · -8.0%
• By 2100: 99,719 · -16.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jasper

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.8) · D 25.9% · R 72.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.6pp toward R · 2008: -33.2pp · 2024: -46.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.8 2020: R+46.2 2016: R+50.8 2012: R+41.0 2008: R+33.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -38.68%
• Current HPI: 255.1864
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+62.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — OGAR
• 2026-04-17 Listed $215,000 OGAR
• 2022-08-26 Sold (MLS) — OGAR
• 2022-08-01 Pending — OGAR
• 2022-07-25 Listed $159,950 OGAR
• 2020-05-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-05-22 Sold (MLS) — OGAR
• 2020-03-09 Listed $132,000 OGAR
• 2000-07-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,254 · +12.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.