623 E County Rd 136 · Midland, TX 79706

$269,999

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Townhouse public records · 94 Days on market

Built 2006 0.41 ac lot ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious 5-bedroom, 2-bath home located in the county offering a peaceful rural setting while still being within a convenient drive to town. The home features a functional layout with multiple bedrooms that provide flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. Situated on just under half an acre, the property offers plenty of outdoor space for parking, hobbies, or enjoying country living. A great opportunity for buyers looking for affordability, space, and the quiet lifestyle!!

Key facts

• 0.41 acre lot
• Built 2006
• Listed 93 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $297 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $270k).
• Recommended offer: $246k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 4.7% in Midland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#57 in TX, #2,192 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, commute D+.
• Midland ISD (urban): math 34% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #477 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 379 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,504 units permitted in Midland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($108k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Midland County population projected at +83% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $245,699 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.72%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.75% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-25,453
• Equity at exit: $40,258

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-408
• Equity at exit: $23,345

Cash invested: $75,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79706

• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 379
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,738 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$337 /mo · $4,050/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$575
• Net cashflow: $297

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,362

Max offer price $269,999

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,500
• Closing costs: $8,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $269,999 Active 94 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $269,999 Active 93 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $269,999 Active 92 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $269,999 Active 91 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   remarks 537-char remark
6. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $269,999 Active 90 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $279,999 Active 88 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,999 Active 87 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $279,999 Active 85 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $279,999 Active 84 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $279,999 Active 83 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $279,999 Active 82 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $279,999 Active 78 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $284,999 Active 77 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $284,999 Active 76 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $284,999 Active 75 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $284,999 Active 74 DOM
18. 2026-05-14
    price $284,999 486-char remark

    Show marketing remark (486 chars)

    Spacious 5-bedroom, 2-bath home located in the county offering a peaceful rural setting while still being within a convenient drive to town. The home features a functional layout with multiple bedrooms that provide flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. Situated on just under half an acre, the property offers plenty of outdoor space for parking, hobbies, or enjoying country living. A great opportunity for buyers looking for affordability, space, and the quiet lifestyle!!

19. 2026-04-14
    price $289,999 486-char remark

    Show marketing remark (486 chars)

    Spacious 5-bedroom, 2-bath home located in the county offering a peaceful rural setting while still being within a convenient drive to town. The home features a functional layout with multiple bedrooms that provide flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. Situated on just under half an acre, the property offers plenty of outdoor space for parking, hobbies, or enjoying country living. A great opportunity for buyers looking for affordability, space, and the quiet lifestyle!!

20. 2026-03-30
    price $294,999 486-char remark

    Show marketing remark (486 chars)

    Spacious 5-bedroom, 2-bath home located in the county offering a peaceful rural setting while still being within a convenient drive to town. The home features a functional layout with multiple bedrooms that provide flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. Situated on just under half an acre, the property offers plenty of outdoor space for parking, hobbies, or enjoying country living. A great opportunity for buyers looking for affordability, space, and the quiet lifestyle!!

21. 2026-03-13
    listed $299,999 Active 486-char remark

    Show marketing remark (486 chars)

    Spacious 5-bedroom, 2-bath home located in the county offering a peaceful rural setting while still being within a convenient drive to town. The home features a functional layout with multiple bedrooms that provide flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. Situated on just under half an acre, the property offers plenty of outdoor space for parking, hobbies, or enjoying country living. A great opportunity for buyers looking for affordability, space, and the quiet lifestyle!!

22. 2016-09-23
    soldstatus
23. 1982-08-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,861
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,124
• − Property taxes: −$4,050
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,629
• − Management: −$2,629
• − Depreciation: −$7,855
• Taxable loss: −$775
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$186
• After-tax cash flow: $3,755/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830570
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $63,457
• Composite: 31.63/100
• National rank: #5938
• State rank: #477 of 826 in TX

Livability — Midland

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #2192

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Midland County · 168,494 people
• City population: 168,494
• Metro: Midland, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,281
• Household income: $108,059
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 303.0

Population outlook (Midland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 220,895 people
• By 2030: 253,667 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 325,498 · +47.4%
• By 2050: 404,168 · +83.0%
• By 2075: 609,802 · +176.1%
• By 2100: 760,172 · +244.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 44% Two or more races 13% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 43% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Swedish 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 30%

Political lean MEDSL · Midland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.5) · D 19.3% · R 79.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -57.3pp · 2024: -60.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.5 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+55.2 2012: R+61.5 2008: R+57.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -173.42%
• Current HPI: 212.6467
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.75%
• Metro: Midland, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $284,999 PBBOR
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $289,999 PBBOR
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $294,999 PBBOR
• 2026-03-13 Listed $299,999 PBBOR
• 2016-09-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1982-08-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $156 · -5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.