350 Shady Cedar Hill Ln · Conroe, TX 77378

$235,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,412 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 46 Days on market

Built 2023 Good condition 5,423 sqft lot $166/sqft · 9% below area Est $260k · 9% under $55/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.8/15.0
• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Still waiting for lower interest rates? Look no further, 4.25% assumable loan available. Welcome to 350 Shady Cedar Hill Ln, a well-located home offering comfort, convenience, and a functional layout. The interior features a spacious, light-filled living area with an easy flow for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen offers practical design with ample storage and connects seamlessly to the main living spaces. Bedrooms are well-sized with good closet space, and the home provides a versatile layout suited to a variety of living needs. Notable upgrades include LeafFilter gutters with a lifetime transferable warranty, a RainSoft whole-home water filtration and softener system with a kitchen under-sink reverse osmosis unit, epoxied garage floor, and upgraded wood laminate flooring. Located in an established neighborhood with convenient access to major highways, shopping, dining, parks, and schools while maintaining a quiet residential feel.

Key facts

• Leaffilter gutters
• Epoxied garage floor
• 5,423 sq ft lot

Tags

• LEAFFILTER GUTTERS
• RAINSOFT WATER FILTRATION
• EPOXIED GARAGE FLOOR
• CONVENIENT ACCESS TO HIGHWAYS
• ESTABLISHED NEIGHBORHOOD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $235k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-218 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $196k (16.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (17.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (17.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: schools D+, commute F, health & safety F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 718 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $193,655 (17.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.98%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $259,540
• List price: $235,000
• Delta: -9.46%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10782 Sora Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,365 (-3%)	3mo	$228,290	$167	72
10747 Sora Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+7%)	1mo	$239,140	$158	70
10703 Sora Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+7%)	2mo	$241,440	$160	69
10719 Sora Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+7%)	3mo	$236,520	$156	69
10726 Sora Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+7%)	2mo	$235,300	$156	68
500 Kinglet Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,580 (+12%)	2mo	$235,000	$149	63
10778 Sora Dr	0.42mi	3/2.5	1,570 (+11%)	1mo	$243,110	$155	59
10730 Sora Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,580 (+12%)	3mo	$242,910	$154	59
423 Starfly Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+7%)	8mo	$243,990	$161	58
10715 Sora Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,204 (-15%)	3mo	$227,090	$189	56
10702 Sora Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,580 (+12%)	9mo	$254,920	$161	53
406 Kinglet Dr	0.31mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,619 (+15%)	3mo	$239,290	$148	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-55,739
• Equity at exit: $35,039

10-year hold

• IRR: -30.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.23×
• Total profit: $-81,218
• Equity at exit: $20,319

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77378

• Home prices YoY: -3.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 718
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,937 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$363 /mo · $4,355/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$55
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$407
• Net cashflow: $-218

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,213

Max offer price $196,429

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-85	-5% $-152	+0% $-218	+5% $-285	+10% $-351
Rent	-10% $-371	-5% $-295	+0% $-218	+5% $-142	+10% $-65
Rate	-1.0pp $-100	-0.5pp $-159	base $-218	+0.5pp $-279	+1.0pp $-341

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
314 Harbor Bend Ct Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1311	$1,800	$1.37	44d	1	1.09mi
27 Lakeway St Conroe, TX	2.0	2.5	1500	$1,400	$0.93	13d	1	1.33mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $55 · $660/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-02
   statusdays on market $235,000 Pending 46 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $235,000 Active 45 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $235,000 Active 44 DOM
4. 2026-04-17
   listed $235,000 Active 968-char remark

   Show marketing remark (968 chars)

   Still waiting for lower interest rates? Look no further, 4.25% assumable loan available. Welcome to 350 Shady Cedar Hill Ln, a well-located home offering comfort, convenience, and a functional layout. The interior features a spacious, light-filled living area with an easy flow for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen offers practical design with ample storage and connects seamlessly to the main living spaces. Bedrooms are well-sized with good closet space, and the home provides a versatile layout suited to a variety of living needs. Notable upgrades include LeafFilter gutters with a lifetime transferable warranty, a RainSoft whole-home water filtration and softener system with a kitchen under-sink reverse osmosis unit, epoxied garage floor, and upgraded wood laminate flooring. Located in an established neighborhood with convenient access to major highways, shopping, dining, parks, and schools while maintaining a quiet residential feel.

5. 2026-04-03
   historical
6. 2025-12-11
   price $239,900
7. 2025-10-28
   listed $245,000 Active
8. 2024-03-28
   historical
9. 2024-03-01
   price $248,440
10. 2023-11-08
    price $269,440
11. 2023-09-22
    price $269,530
12. 2023-08-24
    price $274,530
13. 2023-08-15
    price $279,530
14. 2023-07-20
    price $291,440
15. 2023-07-17
    listed $284,260 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,355 · $363/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,355 · $363/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,239
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$4,355
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,859
• − Management: −$1,859
• − HOA: −$660
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$6,670
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,601
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,019/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home in Conroe, TX is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for both resale and rental value through cosmetic updates and maintenance.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value
• Both HVAC maintenance — Ensures comfort and energy efficiency
• Both Water filtration system maintenance — Ensures clean water and reduces maintenance costs

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑
• Both HVAC maintenance — Ensures comfort and energy efficiency ↑
• Both Water filtration system maintenance — Ensures clean water and reduces maintenance costs ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Conroe, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,629
• Household income: $71,143
• Rent vs Own: 25.5% rent · 74.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 402.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 19%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.25%
• Current HPI: 261.9673
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.98%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-17.3% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listed $235,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-12-11 Price Changed $239,900 HARMLS
• 2025-10-28 Listed $245,000 HARMLS
• 2024-03-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-03-01 Price Changed $248,440 HARMLS
• 2023-11-08 Price Changed $269,440 HARMLS
• 2023-09-22 Price Changed $269,530 HARMLS
• 2023-08-24 Price Changed $274,530 HARMLS
• 2023-08-15 Price Changed $279,530 HARMLS
• 2023-07-20 Price Changed $291,440 HARMLS
• 2023-07-17 Listed $284,260 HARMLS

Property tax history

+179.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,355 · +24.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.