4140 Lake Forest Dr #1221 · Bonita Springs, FL 34134

$495,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,593 sqft · Condo public records · 78 Days on market

Built 1991 $1091/mo HOA · 17% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.4/30.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Rarely available, this immaculate, recently updated end unit in Bonita Bay has plenty of natural light flowing throughout the open and airy layout, with a stunning lake view from the screened lanai. The Sandpiper neighborhood in Bonita Bay offers a beautiful pool, hot tub and 2 tennis courts. Bonita Bay is one of SW Florida's premier golf communities with an active Country Club lifestyle, private beach club and marina, pickleball, kayaks, 3 parks with playgrounds and basketball court. 54 holes of championship golf and state of the art amenities. Explore the unique features first-hand, and fall in love with a property that checks off your must-haves in your next home!

Key facts

• Dual sinks
• Lake views
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• LAKE VIEWS
• SCREENED LANAI
• UPDATED BATHROOMS
• SPLIT-BEDROOM FLOOR PLAN
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• DUAL SINKS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Total annual recurring fees and one-time fees apply
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; Quarterly HOA fee; Annual master HOA fee; Professional management; Community amenities include: basketball, bocce, clubhouse, community pool and spa, dog park, fishing pier, full service spa, golf course (non-equity), marina, pickleball, play area, private beach pavilion and beach club access, restaurant, tennis, bike/jog paths, BBQ/picnic areas, sidewalks, streetlights, and underground utilities; HOA maintenance covers: cable, insurance, internet/Wi‑Fi, irrigation water, lawn/land maintenance, legal/accounting, management, exterior pest control, recreation facilities, repairs, reserves, security, sewer, street lights and maintenance, trash removal, and water; Total annual recurring fees reported

Exterior

• Parking: 1 assigned covered parking; Detached 1-car carport; Guest parking available
• Security: Gated community with guard at gate and patrols
• Utilities: Water assessment paid; Sewer assessment paid; Cable available
• Home design: Residential end-unit; Low-rise building (1–3 stories); 2-story building; North rear exposure; Located in Bonita Bay (Sandpiper at Bonita Bay)
• Construction: Concrete block construction; Built in 1991
• Exterior features: Pond; Exterior storage; Tile roof; Stone exterior finish; Single-hung and sliding windows; Electric shutters

Interior

• Kitchen: Pantry; Electric cooktop; Self-cleaning oven; Microwave; Garbage disposal; Refrigerator/freezer with icemaker
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms; Split bedroom floor plan
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bath with dual sinks and separate tub and shower
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Built-in cabinets; Closet cabinets; Custom mirrors; Fire sprinkler system; Pantry; Smoke detectors; Walk-in closet; Window coverings; Breakfast bar; Dining area (family and living); Guest bath; Guest room; Laundry in residence; Screened lanai/porch; Furnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $495k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $217 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $495k).
• Recommended offer: $465k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 1.7% in Bonita Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#428 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: schools C-, cost of living C-, health & safety D.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 699 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $6,298/mo this rent would consume 58% of the median local household income ($131k/yr) (locally 554% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($465k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $375k; 32% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→31/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $465,300 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.57%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.85% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-66,432
• Equity at exit: $73,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-40,221
• Equity at exit: $42,799

Cash invested: $138,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34134

• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 699
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,298 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,596
• Tax from tax record: −$439 /mo · $5,268/yr
• Insurance: −$206
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$1,091
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,323
• Net cashflow: $217

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,024

Max offer price $495,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $497	-5% $357	+0% $217	+5% $77	+10% $-63
Rent	-10% $-281	-5% $-32	+0% $217	+5% $466	+10% $714
Rate	-1.0pp $466	-0.5pp $343	base $217	+0.5pp $89	+1.0pp $-42

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $123,750
• Closing costs: $14,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4111 Lake Forest Dr #523 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1393	$5,000	$3.59	24d	1	0.03mi
4251 Lake Forest Dr #214 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1393	$6,000	$4.31	24d	1	0.08mi
4240 Lake Forest Dr #423 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1450	$6,500	$4.48	24d	1	0.09mi
27080 Lake Harbor Ct #201 Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1764	$7,500	$4.25	24d	1	0.17mi
27080 Lake Harbor Ct #202 Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1654	$7,200	$4.35	24d	1	0.17mi
4041 Whiskey Pointe Ln #102 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1345	$6,500	$4.83	24d	1	0.21mi
4120 Bayhead Dr #303 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1523	$7,000	$4.60	24d	1	0.27mi
4140 Bayhead Dr #106 Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1583	$8,200	$5.18	24d	1	0.27mi
4130 Bayhead Dr Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1336	$8,000	$5.99	24d	2	0.28mi
26850 Wedgewood Dr #202 Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	3.0	1781	$8,500	$4.77	24d	1	0.34mi
26881 Wedgewood Dr #201 Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1640	$8,000	$4.88	24d	1	0.35mi
27190 Oakwood Lake Dr #102 Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1603	$7,500	$4.68	24d	1	0.44mi
27038 Oakwood Lake Dr Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	3.0	1818	$8,500	$4.68	24d	1	0.44mi
27121 Oakwood Lake Dr Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.5	1892	$8,900	$4.70	4d	1	0.47mi
27119 Oakwood Lake Dr Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.5	1812	$7,500	$4.14	24d	1	0.47mi
26930 Wedgewood Dr #202 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1620	$5,500	$3.40	24d	1	0.48mi
27113 Oakwood Lake Dr Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.5	1879	$7,500	$3.99	24d	1	0.48mi
26926 Montego Pointe Ct #201 Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	2008	$9,500	$4.73	24d	1	0.56mi
27579 Big Bend Rd Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1512	$2,700	$1.79	24d	1	0.63mi
4150 Tarpon Ave Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	2103	$2,700	$1.28	24d	1	0.66mi
4150 Tarpon Ave Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	2103	$2,700	$1.28	4d	1	0.66mi
27595 Imperial River Rd Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	2103	$2,700	$1.28	4d	1	0.66mi
27595 Imperial River Rd Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	2103	$2,700	$1.28	24d	1	0.66mi
27585 Imperial Shores Blvd Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	3.0	1576	$8,000	$5.08	24d	1	0.67mi
26968 Montego Pointe Ct #201 Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	2008	$4,100	$2.04	24d	1	0.67mi
3621 Wild Pines Dr #207 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1064	$6,000	$5.64	24d	1	0.68mi
27594 Shore Dr Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1426	$5,500	$3.86	24d	1	0.69mi
27052 Kindlewood Ln Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1584	$3,700	$2.34	4d	1	0.75mi
27123 Kindlewood Ln Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1715	$4,500	$2.62	24d	1	0.80mi
4212 Rita Ln Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1428	$1,475	$1.03	24d	1	0.80mi
4412 Vanda Dr Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1800	$2,800	$1.56	24d	1	0.92mi
4879 Esplanade St Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.5	1888	$16,000	$8.47	13d	1	0.94mi
27921 Bonita Village Blvd Bonita Springs, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1429	$3,745	$2.62	24d	3	0.97mi
4860 Gary Rd Unit 4 Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1875	$2,900	$1.55	24d	1	1.01mi
4851 Gary Rd Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	1.0	1281	$2,250	$1.76	24d	1	1.02mi
3321 Glen Cairn Ct #102 Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.5	1912	$9,000	$4.71	24d	1	1.05mi
8659 River Homes Ln #1307 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1087	$1,850	$1.70	20d	1	1.09mi
8659 River Homes Ln #1108 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1087	$4,500	$4.14	24d	1	1.09mi
11 2nd St Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1595	$9,500	$5.96	24d	1	1.13mi
3503 Brink Cir Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	3.0	1300	$2,200	$1.69	24d	1	1.13mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $1,091 · $13,092/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $495,000 Active 78 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $495,000 Active 77 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $495,000 Active 76 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $495,000 Active 74 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $495,000 Active 71 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $495,000 Active 70 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $495,000 Active 68 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $495,000 Active 64 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $495,000 Active 63 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $495,000 Active 62 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $495,000 Active 61 DOM
12. 2026-03-31
    listed $495,000 Active
13. 2020-04-23
    soldstatus $375,000
14. 2020-04-21
    soldstatus $375,000 Sold 675-char remark

    Show marketing remark (675 chars)

    Rarely available, this immaculate, recently updated end unit in Bonita Bay has plenty of natural light flowing throughout the open and airy layout, with a stunning lake view from the screened lanai. The Sandpiper neighborhood in Bonita Bay offers a beautiful pool, hot tub and 2 tennis courts. Bonita Bay is one of SW Florida's premier golf communities with an active Country Club lifestyle, private beach club and marina, pickleball, kayaks, 3 parks with playgrounds and basketball court. 54 holes of championship golf and state of the art amenities. Explore the unique features first-hand, and fall in love with a property that checks off your must-haves in your next home!

15. 2019-12-11
    status Pending 675-char remark

    Show marketing remark (675 chars)

    Rarely available, this immaculate, recently updated end unit in Bonita Bay has plenty of natural light flowing throughout the open and airy layout, with a stunning lake view from the screened lanai. The Sandpiper neighborhood in Bonita Bay offers a beautiful pool, hot tub and 2 tennis courts. Bonita Bay is one of SW Florida's premier golf communities with an active Country Club lifestyle, private beach club and marina, pickleball, kayaks, 3 parks with playgrounds and basketball court. 54 holes of championship golf and state of the art amenities. Explore the unique features first-hand, and fall in love with a property that checks off your must-haves in your next home!

16. 2019-11-30
    listed $379,900 Active 675-char remark

    Show marketing remark (675 chars)

    Rarely available, this immaculate, recently updated end unit in Bonita Bay has plenty of natural light flowing throughout the open and airy layout, with a stunning lake view from the screened lanai. The Sandpiper neighborhood in Bonita Bay offers a beautiful pool, hot tub and 2 tennis courts. Bonita Bay is one of SW Florida's premier golf communities with an active Country Club lifestyle, private beach club and marina, pickleball, kayaks, 3 parks with playgrounds and basketball court. 54 holes of championship golf and state of the art amenities. Explore the unique features first-hand, and fall in love with a property that checks off your must-haves in your next home!

17. 2015-01-13
    soldstatus $240,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,268 · $439/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,268 · $439/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 97% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 31 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $75,577
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,728
• − Property taxes: −$5,268
• − Insurance: −$7,594
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,046
• − Management: −$6,046
• − HOA: −$13,092
• − Depreciation: −$14,400
• Taxable loss: −$4,597
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,103
• After-tax cash flow: $3,705/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bonita Springs

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #428
• US rank: #7576

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bonita Springs, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 64,727
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 16,475
• Household income: $130,719
• Rent vs Own: 17.8% rent · 82.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 554.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Romanian 4% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -236.48%
• Current HPI: 237.4416
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.85%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+106.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Listed $495,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2020-04-23 Sold (Public Records) $375,000 Public Records
• 2020-04-21 Sold (MLS) $375,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2019-12-11 Pending — NAPLESMLS
• 2019-11-30 Listed $379,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2015-01-13 Sold (Public Records) $240,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,268 · -3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.