5745 Deer Run Dr #1 · Lakewood Park, FL 34951

$160,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Townhouse · 322 Days on market

Built 1986 1,000 sqft lot $391/mo HOA · 21% of rent ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

:Lovely 2/2 in the beautiful community of Holiday Pines in N Ft. Pierce. Convenient to Vero Beach for great shopping and dining, and to all Ft. Pierce has to offer, world class beaches, fishing & medical facilities. Desirable first floor corner unit, extra windows and lots of natural light. Roof only two years old. New carpet in living room, new water heater. Enjoy the peaceful views from your screened patio with additional storage, or relax at the pool. One pet up to 30 lbs. Good rental income potential if you're looking for an investment.

Key facts

• Screened patio
• New carpet
• Natural light

Tags

• EXTRA WINDOWS
• NATURAL LIGHT
• ROOF ONLY TWO YEARS OLD
• NEW CARPET
• NEW WATER HEATER
• SCREENED PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed (restrictions may apply: breed, number, size)
• Financial info: Monthly association fee of $391
• HOA & community: Community pool; HOA with monthly fee

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Sewer available; Water available
• Home design: Townhouse; Single-story; Faces west; Resale condition
• Construction: Frame construction; Composition/shingle roof
• Exterior features: Screened patio; Patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Split bedroom layout; Sliding windows
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-29 ($-348/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $156k (2.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#719 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Manatee Academy K-8 (math 53% / reading 51%, grade C-, #990 of 2,144 statewide, top 48%, 1,664 students, 65% FRL); Southern Oaks Middle School (math 39% / reading 43%, grade F, #353 of 571 statewide, top 63%, 894 students, 76% FRL); Fort Pierce Central High School (math 15% / reading 45%, grade F, #441 of 667 statewide, top 67%, 3,091 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: 296 active listings in the ZIP; 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 322 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.

Recommended offer $141,240 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 322 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.77%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-27,586
• Equity at exit: $23,931

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-25,309
• Equity at exit: $13,877

Cash invested: $44,940 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34951

• Home prices YoY: -23.6%
• Active inventory: 296
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,862 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$842
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$201 /mo · $2,408/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$391
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$391
• Net cashflow: $-29

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,899

Max offer price $156,305

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $82	-5% $26	+0% $-29	+5% $-84	+10% $-140
Rent	-10% $-176	-5% $-103	+0% $-29	+5% $45	+10% $118
Rate	-1.0pp $52	-0.5pp $12	base $-29	+0.5pp $-71	+1.0pp $-113

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,125
• Closing costs: $4,815
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $391 · $4,692/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $160,500 Active 322 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,500 Active 319 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,500 Active 318 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,500 Active 317 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,500 Active 316 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $160,500 Active 314 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $160,500 Active 313 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $161,500 Active 311 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $161,500 Active 310 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $161,500 Active 309 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $161,500 Active 308 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $161,500 Active 305 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $161,500 Active 304 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $161,500 Active 303 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $161,500 Active 302 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $161,500 Active 301 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $161,500 Active 300 DOM
18. 2026-02-17
    price $162,500
19. 2026-02-05
    status Active
20. 2026-01-23
    historical
21. 2026-01-03
    price $164,900
22. 2025-09-22
    price $169,900
23. 2025-08-26
    price $175,000
24. 2025-07-21
    listed $180,000 Active
25. 2024-01-26
    historical
26. 2024-01-08
    price $186,900
27. 2023-10-10
    price $193,900
28. 2023-09-25
    listed $198,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,347
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,990
• − Property taxes: −$2,408
• − Insurance: −$802
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,788
• − Management: −$1,788
• − HOA: −$4,692
• − Depreciation: −$4,669
• Taxable loss: −$2,790
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$670
• After-tax cash flow: $322/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Lucie
• NCES district ID: 1201770
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,737
• Composite: 37.28/100
• National rank: #4449
• State rank: #51 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Park

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #719
• US rank: #15407

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakewood Park, FL
• County: Saint Lucie County · 337,150 people
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• Population (ZIP): 17,148
• Household income: $63,122
• Rent vs Own: 11.7% rent · 88.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 140.0

Population outlook (St. Lucie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 338,016 people
• By 2030: 355,687 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 385,521 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 406,106 · +20.1%
• By 2075: 441,054 · +30.5%
• By 2100: 436,885 · +29.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lucie

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.1) · D 45.1% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.1pp · 2024: -9.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.1 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+2.5 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+12.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -106.06%
• Current HPI: 343.1376
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-18.3% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $162,500 Beaches MLS
• 2026-02-05 Relisted — Beaches MLS
• 2026-01-23 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2026-01-03 Price Changed $164,900 Beaches MLS
• 2025-09-22 Price Changed $169,900 Beaches MLS
• 2025-08-26 Price Changed $175,000 Beaches MLS
• 2025-07-21 Listed $180,000 Beaches MLS
• 2024-01-26 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2024-01-08 Price Changed $186,900 Beaches MLS
• 2023-10-10 Price Changed $193,900 Beaches MLS
• 2023-09-25 Listed $198,900 Beaches MLS