4267 Neff Lake Rd · Spring Lake, FL 34601

$198,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,104 sqft · Manufactured public records · 71 Days on market

Built 1992 3.60 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Situated on just over 3.6 private acres, this unique property offers a rare opportunity to own a peaceful, nature-filled setting with existing utilities already in place, making it ideal for those looking to renovate or build new. The property features a 3-bedroom, 2-bath double-wide manufactured home with an eat-in kitchen, open living area, and indoor laundry room. Electricity and water are already connected, with two wells (approximately 385' and 265' deep, both 4'' in diameter with 5-horsepower motors) and two electric meters previously supporting a working tropical nursery. The land itself is a blend of wooded areas and open pasture, offering both privacy and usable space, and is set far back from the road for a secluded feel. Additional features include multiple detached carports with concrete floors providing covered parking for up to three vehicles, a storage building, and an aluminum kennel with a metal roof and concrete base. Once a thriving nursery, the property is now overgrown but filled with mature tropical landscaping including Queen, Bismarck, Cabbage, Washington Fan, and Sago palms, along with flowering plants such as crepe myrtle, bottlebrush, turks cap, poinsettia, and unique varieties like dragon fruit cactus, Mexican cactus, and elephant ear plants. You'll find oak and cedar trees throughout, as well as a variety of fruit-bearing trees including mango, avocado, banana, papaya, orange, and pecan trees add to the property's charm and potential, while fertile soil makes it well-suited for gardening or agricultural use. Scattered potted plants from the former nursery remain on site, offering even more opportunity for restoration or expansion. Whether you envision bringing the existing home back to life or building your dream home in a private, lush setting, this property offers incredible potential and a truly one-of-a-kind landscape ready to be reimagined.

Key facts

• Private acres
• Existing utilities
• Fruit-bearing trees

Tags

• PRIVATE ACRES
• EXISTING UTILITIES
• MULTIPLE DETACHED CARPORTS
• MATURE TROPICAL LANDSCAPING
• FRUIT-BEARING TREES
• FERTILE SOIL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property zoned AG; Homestead status indicated; 2 to less than 5 acres (about 3.6 acres)
• HOA & community: No HOA/association

Exterior

• Parking: Covered, off-street parking at ground level; 3-space carport
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity available; Water service available
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; One story; Faces north; Listed as a fixer
• Construction: Frame construction; Metal roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: No patio or porch; Shed(s) and other outbuildings; Fruit trees and mature landscaping; Oak trees and wooded areas; Private, oversized irregular lot with pasture; Paved access on public maintained road; Located within city limits

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Range hood
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $198k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $56 ($670/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $158k (20.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $158k (20.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 1.8% in Spring Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#819 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Hernando (suburban): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #38 of 73 in FL (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Eastside Elementary School (math 37% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,709 of 2,144 statewide, top 81%, 737 students, 73% FRL); D. S. Parrott Middle School (math 40% / reading 40%, grade F, #368 of 571 statewide, top 65%, 835 students, 67% FRL); Hernando High School (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #275 of 667 statewide, top 42%, 1,299 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 498 active listings in the ZIP; 2,505 units permitted in Hernando County in 2024 (318 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hernando County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($186k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $22k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $24k; list at $198k implies a 725% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,758 (20.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.21%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.19% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-32,951
• Equity at exit: $29,522

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-41,289
• Equity at exit: $17,119

Cash invested: $55,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34601

• Home prices YoY: -29.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 498
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,578 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,038
• Tax from tax record: −$70 /mo · $835/yr
• Insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$331
• Net cashflow: $56

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,507

Max offer price $198,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $168	-5% $112	+0% $56	+5% $0	+10% $-56
Rent	-10% $-69	-5% $-6	+0% $56	+5% $118	+10% $180
Rate	-1.0pp $156	-0.5pp $106	base $56	+0.5pp $5	+1.0pp $-48

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,500
• Closing costs: $5,940
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $198,000 Pending 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $198,000 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $198,000 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $198,000 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $198,000 Active 65 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $198,000 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $198,000 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   status $198,000 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   status $198,000 Pending 62 DOM
10. 2026-05-11
    price $198,000 1906-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1906 chars)

    Situated on just over 3.6 private acres, this unique property offers a rare opportunity to own a peaceful, nature-filled setting with existing utilities already in place, making it ideal for those looking to renovate or build new. The property features a 3-bedroom, 2-bath double-wide manufactured home with an eat-in kitchen, open living area, and indoor laundry room. Electricity and water are already connected, with two wells (approximately 385' and 265' deep, both 4'' in diameter with 5-horsepower motors) and two electric meters previously supporting a working tropical nursery. The land itself is a blend of wooded areas and open pasture, offering both privacy and usable space, and is set far back from the road for a secluded feel. Additional features include multiple detached carports with concrete floors providing covered parking for up to three vehicles, a storage building, and an aluminum kennel with a metal roof and concrete base. Once a thriving nursery, the property is now overgrown but filled with mature tropical landscaping including Queen, Bismarck, Cabbage, Washington Fan, and Sago palms, along with flowering plants such as crepe myrtle, bottlebrush, turks cap, poinsettia, and unique varieties like dragon fruit cactus, Mexican cactus, and elephant ear plants. You'll find oak and cedar trees throughout, as well as a variety of fruit-bearing trees including mango, avocado, banana, papaya, orange, and pecan trees add to the property's charm and potential, while fertile soil makes it well-suited for gardening or agricultural use. Scattered potted plants from the former nursery remain on site, offering even more opportunity for restoration or expansion. Whether you envision bringing the existing home back to life or building your dream home in a private, lush setting, this property offers incredible potential and a truly one-of-a-kind landscape ready to be reimagined.

11. 2026-05-11
    price $198,000

    Show marketing remark (1906 chars)

    Situated on just over 3.6 private acres, this unique property offers a rare opportunity to own a peaceful, nature-filled setting with existing utilities already in place, making it ideal for those looking to renovate or build new. The property features a 3-bedroom, 2-bath double-wide manufactured home with an eat-in kitchen, open living area, and indoor laundry room. Electricity and water are already connected, with two wells (approximately 385' and 265' deep, both 4'' in diameter with 5-horsepower motors) and two electric meters previously supporting a working tropical nursery. The land itself is a blend of wooded areas and open pasture, offering both privacy and usable space, and is set far back from the road for a secluded feel. Additional features include multiple detached carports with concrete floors providing covered parking for up to three vehicles, a storage building, and an aluminum kennel with a metal roof and concrete base. Once a thriving nursery, the property is now overgrown but filled with mature tropical landscaping including Queen, Bismarck, Cabbage, Washington Fan, and Sago palms, along with flowering plants such as crepe myrtle, bottlebrush, turks cap, poinsettia, and unique varieties like dragon fruit cactus, Mexican cactus, and elephant ear plants. You'll find oak and cedar trees throughout, as well as a variety of fruit-bearing trees including mango, avocado, banana, papaya, orange, and pecan trees add to the property's charm and potential, while fertile soil makes it well-suited for gardening or agricultural use. Scattered potted plants from the former nursery remain on site, offering even more opportunity for restoration or expansion. Whether you envision bringing the existing home back to life or building your dream home in a private, lush setting, this property offers incredible potential and a truly one-of-a-kind landscape ready to be reimagined.

12. 2026-03-30
    listed $220,000 Active 1906-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1906 chars)

    Situated on just over 3.6 private acres, this unique property offers a rare opportunity to own a peaceful, nature-filled setting with existing utilities already in place, making it ideal for those looking to renovate or build new. The property features a 3-bedroom, 2-bath double-wide manufactured home with an eat-in kitchen, open living area, and indoor laundry room. Electricity and water are already connected, with two wells (approximately 385' and 265' deep, both 4'' in diameter with 5-horsepower motors) and two electric meters previously supporting a working tropical nursery. The land itself is a blend of wooded areas and open pasture, offering both privacy and usable space, and is set far back from the road for a secluded feel. Additional features include multiple detached carports with concrete floors providing covered parking for up to three vehicles, a storage building, and an aluminum kennel with a metal roof and concrete base. Once a thriving nursery, the property is now overgrown but filled with mature tropical landscaping including Queen, Bismarck, Cabbage, Washington Fan, and Sago palms, along with flowering plants such as crepe myrtle, bottlebrush, turks cap, poinsettia, and unique varieties like dragon fruit cactus, Mexican cactus, and elephant ear plants. You'll find oak and cedar trees throughout, as well as a variety of fruit-bearing trees including mango, avocado, banana, papaya, orange, and pecan trees add to the property's charm and potential, while fertile soil makes it well-suited for gardening or agricultural use. Scattered potted plants from the former nursery remain on site, offering even more opportunity for restoration or expansion. Whether you envision bringing the existing home back to life or building your dream home in a private, lush setting, this property offers incredible potential and a truly one-of-a-kind landscape ready to be reimagined.

13. 2026-03-29
    listed $220,000 Active
14. 1989-04-01
    soldstatus $24,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $835 · $70/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,643 · $137/mo
• Expected delta: +$808/yr (+$67/mo · 96.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,931
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,091
• − Property taxes: −$835
• − Insurance: −$990
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,514
• − Management: −$1,514
• − Depreciation: −$5,760
• Taxable loss: −$2,774
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$666
• After-tax cash flow: $1,336/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hernando
• NCES district ID: 1200810
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,985
• Composite: 42.03/100
• National rank: #3329
• State rank: #38 of 73 in FL

Livability — Spring Lake

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #819
• US rank: #19649

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spring Lake, FL
• County: Hernando County · 169,677 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,115
• Household income: $60,440
• Rent vs Own: 27.6% rent · 72.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 664.0

Population outlook (Hernando County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 189,218 people
• By 2030: 194,367 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 203,398 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 209,589 · +10.8%
• By 2075: 218,452 · +15.4%
• By 2100: 205,923 · +8.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 8% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Romanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Hernando

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.0) · D 31.1% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.5pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -37.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.0 2020: R+30.2 2016: R+29.0 2012: R+8.5 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -132.68%
• Current HPI: 313.4695
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.19%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+725.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $198,000 HCAR
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $198,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-30 Listed $220,000 HCAR
• 2026-03-29 Listed $220,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1989-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $24,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $835 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.