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4204 Hudson Bend Rd Unit B
D+ Composite 47.58
Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • ARV discount +15.0/15.0
  • Cash flow +9.6/30.0
  • Schools +5.2/10.0
  • 1% rule +4.7/10.0
  • Condition / age +3.8/5.0
  • Rent growth +3.6/5.0
  • Livability +3.1/5.0
  • DSCR +2.7/10.0
  • Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$210,000

4204 Hudson Bend Rd Unit B · Hudson Bend, TX 78734
2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,086 sqft · Condo · 85 Days on market
Built 1980 Good condition Garage $193/sqft · 43% below area Est $370k · 43% under $300/mo HOA · 15% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

Unique location close to Lake Travis in Vista Grande! Fantastic 2-story, 2 bedroom, 1.5 bath condominium with 1-car attached garage. Easily accessible to Hwy 71 and 183. Recent paint, flooring, and master bath remodeled. Wood burning fireplace in the living area, granite kitchen counters, energy efficient windows, and a spacious utility room with storage cabinets. Great HOA amenities including tennis court!

Key facts

  • Attached garage
  • Cozy fireplace
  • $300 HOA

Tags

ELEGANT STONE COUNTERSCOZY FIREPLACEATTACHED GARAGE

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $210k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $-143 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
  • To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $189k (9.9% below list).
  • To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (3.1% below list).
  • Recommended offer: $189k (9.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
  • Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 1.6% in Hudson Bend — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,006 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
  • Lake Travis ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #39 of 826 in TX (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
  • Zoned schools: Lake Travis El (math 31% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,883 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 763 students, 38% FRL); Hudson Bend Middle (math 57% / reading 52%, grade B-, #256 of 1,662 statewide, top 16%, 900 students, 0% FRL); Lake Travis H S (math 54% / reading 75%, grade B-, #199 of 1,632 statewide, top 14%, 3,701 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 13% FRL track the district average.
  • Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 547 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 53d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 71% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
  • 7 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

  • Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 69% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer $189,274 (9.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
  2. It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
  4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
  5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
  6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
  8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
  9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

1% rule
0.97%
Cap rate
5.47%
Cash-on-cash
-2.92%
DSCR
0.87
GRM
8.6

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$370,000
List price
$210,000
Delta
-43.24%
Verdict
UNDERPRICED
Comps
7 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
3819 Ranch Road 620 N 0.46mi 1/2.0 (-1) 1,056 (-3%) 10mo $379,000 $359 59
15102 Iowa St 0.57mi 1/1.0 (-1) 1,050 (-3%) 10mo $190,000 $181 52
5506 Longhorn Lndg 1.00mi 2/1.0 1,184 (+9%) 6mo $349,900 $296 43
2918 Ranch Road 620 N Unit U-254 0.88mi 2/2.0 1,204 (+11%) 4mo $245,000 $203 41
16001 Awalt Dr 1.02mi 2/2.0 1,010 (-7%) 14mo $399,900 $396 40
3139 Chisholm Trl 1.26mi 3/2.0 (+1) 1,271 (+17%) 2mo $389,900 $307 31
2918 Ranch Road 620 N Unit C-121 0.93mi 2/1.0 999 (-8%) 27mo $275,000 $275 30
5104 Mccormick Mountain Dr 0.68mi 3/3.0 (+1) 1,313 (+21%) 5mo $369,000 $281 28
15609 Enid Dr 0.85mi 2/2.0 1,200 (+10%) 24mo $359,000 $299 26
5501 Longhorn Lndg 0.93mi 2/1.0 1,288 (+19%) 28mo $419,900 $326 18
2918 Ranch Road 620 Rd N Unit D-123 0.88mi 2/2.5 1,321 (+22%) 24mo $369,000 $279 16
14705 Great Eagle Trl 1.25mi 3/2.0 (+1) 1,334 (+23%) 30mo $439,000 $329 13

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
-19.0%
Equity multiple
0.32×
Total profit
$-39,734
Equity at exit
$31,312
10-year hold
IRR
-8.0%
Equity multiple
0.46×
Total profit
$-31,913
Equity at exit
$18,157

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

ZIP-level market 78734

Rents YoY
4.5%
Active inventory
547
Price-to-rent
8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$2,035 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
$1,101
Tax est. 1.5%
$262 /mo · $3,150/yr
Insurance
$88
HOA
$300
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
$427
Net cashflow
$-143

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,217
Max offer price $189,274
Occupancy floor

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $2 -5% $-71 +0% $-143 +5% $-216 +10% $-288
Rent -10% $-304 -5% $-224 +0% $-143 +5% $-63 +10% $18
Rate -1.0pp $-37 -0.5pp $-90 base $-143 +0.5pp $-198 +1.0pp $-253

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$52,500
Closing costs
$6,300
Reserves months
Total cash needed

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 21 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
3904 Hudson Bend Rd Austin, TX 2.0 2.0 1160 $1,600 $1.38 93d 1 0.24mi
3904 Hudson Bend Rd Unit D Austin, TX 2.0 1.5 1160 $1,379 $1.19 47d 1 0.24mi
3904 Hudson Bend Rd Unit D Austin, TX 2.0 1.5 1160 $1,379 $1.19 17d 1 0.24mi
3904 Hudson Bend Rd Unit A Austin, TX 2.0 1.5 1160 $1,495 $1.29 71d 1 0.24mi
15303 Texas St Austin, TX 2.0 2.0 1240 $2,400 $1.94 73d 1 0.47mi
15104 Texas St Austin, TX 2.0 1.0 804 $1,875 $2.33 93d 1 0.49mi
15314 Oklahoma St Austin, TX 3.0 2.0 1104 $2,300 $2.08 13d 1 0.50mi
5208 Sioux Ln Austin, TX 3.0 2.0 1457 $2,200 $1.51 9d 1 0.74mi
2918 Ranch to Market Road 620 Unit 172 Austin, TX 2.0 2.0 1161 $1,995 $1.72 93d 1 0.89mi
5502 Longhorn Lndg Austin, TX 3.0 2.0 1438 $2,499 $1.74 27d 1 0.93mi
2918 Ranch Road 620 N Unit Y194 Austin, TX 2.0 2.0 1204 $2,195 $1.82 53d 1 0.95mi
2918 Ranch Road 620 N Unit J162 Austin, TX 2.0 2.5 1386 $2,100 $1.52 24d 1 0.95mi
2918 Ranch Road 620 N Unit V267 Austin, TX 2.0 2.0 1160 $2,100 $1.81 93d 1 0.95mi
15216 Kevin Ln Austin, TX 3.0 2.0 1472 $2,395 $1.63 73d 1 0.97mi
2918 Ranch Rd 620 N Apt 272 Austin, TX 2.0 2.5 1395 $2,195 $1.57 52d 1 0.99mi
16001 Awalt Dr Austin, TX 2.0 2.0 1010 $2,500 $2.48 93d 1 0.99mi
2918 Ranch Rd 620 N #265 Austin, TX 2.0 2.0 1204 $2,100 $1.74 52d 1 1.00mi
2918 Ranch Rd 620 N #204 Austin, TX 2.0 2.0 1160 $2,095 $1.81 31d 1 1.00mi
16109 Awalt Dr Unit B Austin, TX 3.0 2.0 1500 $1,800 $1.20 52d 1 1.07mi
3248 Brass Buttons Trl Austin, TX 3.0 2.0 1238 $2,200 $1.78 73d 1 1.24mi
5503 Hi Line Rd Austin, TX 3.0 2.0 1100 $2,200 $2.00 29d 1 1.36mi

Property features AI

Finance

HOA & community
Homeowners association: Vista Grande Condominiums HOAMonthly HOA fee of $300 covering common area maintenance and insuranceCommunity features include common grounds and tennis courts

Exterior

Parking
Attached garage (1 covered space)Total 2 parking spacesDrivewayGarage with door openerOff-street and guest parkingGarage faces rear
Security
Owned security systemSmoke detectors
Utilities
Cable availableElectricity availableHigh-speed internet availableMunicipal utility district waterSeptic tank sewer
Home design
Two-story propertyFaces southResale propertySlab foundation
Construction
Built with brick, masonry, and wood sidingComposition shingle roof
Exterior features
BalconyPatioRain guttersFenced backyard with wood privacy fencingLandscaped, level lot with medium and large treesViews of Lake Travis

Interior

Kitchen
DishwasherElectric oven and rangeMicrowaveGarbage disposalRefrigeratorExhaust fanPantry
Bedrooms
At least one bedroom on the second level
Flooring
CarpetTile
Bathrooms
One full bathroomOne half bathroom
Heating & cooling
Central heatingElectric heatingFireplace(s) for supplemental heatCentral air conditioningElectric cooling
Interior features
Ceiling fansEat-in kitchenGranite countersInterior stepsOpen floor planPantryRecessed lightingStorageWindow screens
Laundry & utility
Washer and dryer includedWasher hookupElectric dryer hookupLaundry room / laundry closet on main levelInside laundry

HOA detail $300/mo · $3,600/yr condo

Assessments
None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 50 events

  1. 2026-08-08
    days on market $210,000 Active 85 DOM
  2. 2026-08-06
    days on market $210,000 Active 83 DOM
  3. 2026-08-05
    days on market $210,000 Active 82 DOM
  4. 2026-08-04
    days on market $210,000 Active 81 DOM
  5. 2026-08-03
    days on market $210,000 Active 80 DOM
  6. 2026-07-31
    days on market $210,000 Active 77 DOM
  7. 2026-07-30
    days on market $210,000 Active 75 DOM
  8. 2026-07-28
    days on market $210,000 Active 74 DOM
  9. 2026-07-26
    days on market $210,000 Active 72 DOM
  10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $210,000 Active 70 DOM
  11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $210,000 Active 69 DOM
  12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $210,000 Active 68 DOM
  13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $210,000 Active 67 DOM
  14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $210,000 Active 66 DOM
  15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $210,000 Active 64 DOM
  16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $210,000 Active 63 DOM
  17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $210,000 Active 62 DOM
  18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $210,000 Active 61 DOM
  19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $210,000 Active 60 DOM
  20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $210,000 Active 59 DOM
  21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $210,000 Active 58 DOM
  22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $210,000 Active 57 DOM
  23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $210,000 Active 56 DOM
  24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $210,000 Active 55 DOM
  25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $210,000 Active 53 DOM
  26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $210,000 Active 52 DOM
  27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $210,000 Active 51 DOM
  28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $210,000 Active 49 DOM
  29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $210,000 Active 48 DOM
  30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $210,000 Active 47 DOM
  31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $210,000 Active 46 DOM
  32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $210,000 Active 45 DOM
  33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $210,000 Active 44 DOM
  34. 2026-06-27
    days on market $210,000 Active 43 DOM
  35. 2026-06-26
    days on market $210,000 Active 42 DOM
  36. 2026-06-24
    days on market $210,000 Active 40 DOM
  37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $210,000 Active 38 DOM
  38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $210,000 Active 37 DOM
  39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $210,000 Active 34 DOM
  40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $210,000 Active 33 DOM
  41. 2026-06-16
    days on market $210,000 Active 32 DOM
  42. 2026-06-15
    days on market $210,000 Active 31 DOM
  43. 2026-06-13
    days on market $210,000 Active 29 DOM
  44. 2026-06-09
    days on market $210,000 Active 25 DOM
  45. 2026-06-08
    days on market $210,000 Active 24 DOM
  46. 2026-06-07
    days on market $210,000 Active 23 DOM
  47. 2026-06-04
    days on market $210,000 Active 20 DOM
  48. 2026-06-03
    days on market $210,000 Active 19 DOM
  49. 2026-06-02
    days on market $210,000 Active 18 DOM
  50. 2026-06-01
    days on market $210,000 Active 17 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

  • 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
  • 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
  • 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
  • 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 69% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
  • 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$24,426
− Mortgage interest
−$11,763
− Property taxes
−$3,150
− Insurance
−$1,050
− Repairs & maintenance
−$1,954
− Management
−$1,954
− HOA
−$3,600
− Depreciation
−$6,109
Taxable loss
−$5,155
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$1,237
After-tax cash flow
$-482/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $5,430–$16,290 screening

This well-maintained and updated condo is ready for immediate occupancy and offers a good return on investment with minor cosmetic improvements that can significantly enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

  • Both Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value.
  • Both Clean tile grout — Clean grout can improve the appearance of the tile flooring and make the space feel more modern.

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 52/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Lake Travis El F TX #1,883/4,322 Nat'l #22,441/41,679 Middle Hudson Bend Middle B- TX #256/1,662 Nat'l #2,564/14,009 High Lake Travis H S B- TX #199/1,632 Nat'l #2,821/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District
Lake Travis ISD
NCES district ID
4826470
Math proficiency
57% ▼ -12.00%
Reading proficiency
61% ▼ -9.00%
Median HH income
$101,194
Composite
55.13/100
National rank
#1283
State rank
#39 of 826 in TX
C Composite livability gradescore 61/100

Livability — Hudson Bend

Score
61/100
State rank
#1006
US rank
#17863

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place
Hudson Bend, TX
County
Travis County · 1,545,133 people
Metro
Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
Population (ZIP)
22,145
Household income
$130,784
Rent vs Own
16.5% rent · 83.5% own
Severe rent burden
8% of renters

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
1,545,133 people
By 2030
1,729,269 · +11.9%
By 2040
2,097,596 · +35.8%
By 2050
2,463,890 · +59.5%
By 2075
3,249,374 · +110.3%
By 2100
3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Predominantly White (76%)
Race & ethnicity
White 76% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 10% Asian 4% Black 1%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 13%
Common ancestry
Italian 6% Iranian 4% Slovak 3%
Foreign-born
13% · Canada, China, Vietnam
Languages at home
84% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

2024 margin
Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
2008→2024 swing
+9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
All cycles
2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

Civics

Price history

+42.4% since first listed
22 events — show timeline
  • 2026-05-15 Listed $210,000 Unlock MLS
  • 2023-08-06 Rental Removed $1,800 APPFOLIO
  • 2023-08-04 Listed for Rent $1,800 APPFOLIO
  • 2023-08-03 Rental Removed $1,800 ACTRIS
  • 2023-07-28 Listed for Rent $1,800 ACTRIS
  • 2023-06-27 Price Changed Unlock MLS
  • 2023-05-24 Price Changed Unlock MLS
  • 2023-03-17 Listed Unlock MLS
  • 2018-02-21 Sold (MLS) Unlock MLS
  • 2018-01-15 Pending Unlock MLS
  • 2017-12-12 Price Changed $175,000 Unlock MLS
  • 2017-11-21 Listed $179,900 Unlock MLS
  • 2014-11-10 Pending Unlock MLS
  • 2014-11-10 Delisted Unlock MLS
  • 2014-10-10 Price Changed Unlock MLS
  • 2014-08-11 Price Changed Unlock MLS
  • 2014-07-16 Price Changed Unlock MLS
  • 2014-07-10 Price Changed Unlock MLS
  • 2014-06-26 Listed Unlock MLS
  • 2007-08-22 Sold (MLS) Unlock MLS
  • 2007-08-22 Delisted Unlock MLS
  • 2007-07-14 Listed $147,500 Unlock MLS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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