4976 Gulf OF Mexico Dr Unit Villa 18 · Longboat Key, FL 34228

$600,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,900 sqft · Condo · 234 Days on market

Built 1974 $1832/mo HOA · 26% of rent ↓ 35% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Appreciation +5.4/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Virtually Staged. PRICE REDUCED! Experience the ultimate Longboat Key lifestyle in this waterfront gem featuring stunning Sarasota Bay and canal views. This spacious residence offers two Bedrooms, two Bathrooms, a versatile Bonus Room (ideal as a 3rd Bedroom, Home Office or private In-Law/ Nanny Suite), plus a generous laundry room with newer full-size machines. This villa has been completely and meticulously renovated, with no detail overlooked and no expense spared. Beyond its stunning finishes, this home offers something incredibly valuable: Exceptional Peace of Mind! Major infrastructure updates include new electrical and plumbing systems, new Luxury Vinyl Plank flooring, fresh interior

Key facts

• Sarasota bay views
• Bonus room
• Florida room

Tags

• SARASOTA BAY VIEWS
• CANAL VIEWS
• BONUS ROOM
• FLORIDA ROOM
• PRIVATE PATIO
• HURRICANE IMPACT WINDOWS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Irrigation equipment provided; Pets allowed with restrictions (dog size/number/weight limits apply, max pet weight 75 lbs)
• Financial info: Total monthly fees reported; Total annual fees reported; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Monthly condo fee; Association requires approval for buyers; Association amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, pool, sauna, recreation facilities, tennis and pickleball courts, shuffleboard, trails, park, clubhouse, laundry, maintenance, management, cable TV, internet, and more; Association fee covers cable TV, common area taxes, pool, escrow reserves, insurance, internet, structure and grounds maintenance, pest control, recreational facilities, sewer, trash and water; Association name listed; Monthly association fee frequency; Community features: association-owned recreation, deed restrictions, community mailbox, sidewalks, street lights, no truck/RV/motorcycle parking, irrigation with reclaimed water

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; Deeded parking; Ground level; Guest parking; Off-street parking; Open parking; Carport (1 space)
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable connected; BB/HS internet available; Fiber optics; Phone available; Sewer connected; Water connected; Underground utilities; Fire hydrant; Sprinkler meter
• Home design: Residential condominium; Attached property; One story; Faces south; Villa 18 (building name)
• Construction: Stucco construction; Built-up and tile roof; Slab foundation; Completed condition; Built as part of a villa building
• Exterior features: Patio; French doors; Exterior lighting; Outdoor grill; Outdoor shower; Sidewalk; Sprinkler (metered); Tennis courts; Mature landscaping with trees; Florida-friendly/native landscape; Near golf course; Near marina; Near public transit; Paved roads

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection oven; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Living room/dining room combo; Stone counters; Thermostat; Walk-in closets; Window treatments; Blinds; ENERGY STAR qualified windows; Shades; Storm windows; Exhaust fan
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room; Washer; Dryer; Laundry hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $600k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-860 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $476k (20.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $600k).
• Recommended offer: $476k (20.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 0.5% in Longboat Key — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#693 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Anna Maria Elementary School (math 77% / reading 77%, grade A, #170 of 2,144 statewide, top 9%, 190 students, 36% FRL); Bayshore High School (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #546 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 1,435 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 540 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $7,019/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($158k/yr) (locally 98% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (0.7% local appreciation)).
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 234 days — a 12% lower offer ($528k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $135k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; HOA is 26% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $475,562 (20.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 234 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
7. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
8. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.10%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.73% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-50,005
• Equity at exit: $196,376

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-5,003
• Equity at exit: $254,549

Cash invested: $168,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34228

• Home prices YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 540
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,019 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,146
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$750 /mo · $9,000/yr
• Insurance: −$250
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$1,832
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,474
• Net cashflow: $-860

Break-even live

Break-even rent $8,108

Max offer price $475,562

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-445	-5% $-653	+0% $-860	+5% $-1,067	+10% $-1,275
Rent	-10% $-1,414	-5% $-1,137	+0% $-860	+5% $-583	+10% $-305
Rate	-1.0pp $-558	-0.5pp $-707	base $-860	+0.5pp $-1,015	+1.0pp $-1,174

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $150,000
• Closing costs: $18,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4825 Gulf of Mexico Dr #201 Longboat Key, FL	2.0	2.0	1393	$7,800	$5.60	25d	1	0.23mi
4340 Falmouth Dr Longboat Key, FL	2.0	2.0	1330	$3,000	$2.26	25d	1	0.70mi
4485 Gulf of Mexico Dr #2 Longboat Key, FL	3.0	2.0	1576	$10,500	$6.66	25d	1	0.77mi
5611 Gulf of Mexico Dr #1 Longboat Key, FL	3.0	2.0	1675	$14,000	$8.36	25d	1	0.87mi
5611 Gulf of Mexico Dr #5 Longboat Key, FL	3.0	3.0	1672	$7,750	$4.64	25d	1	0.87mi
5611 Gulf of Mexico Dr #3 Longboat Key, FL	3.0	2.0	1635	$5,000	$3.06	25d	1	0.87mi
5621 Gulf of Mexico Dr #103 Longboat Key, FL	3.0	2.0	1731	$5,500	$3.18	25d	1	0.89mi
5621 Gulf of Mexico Dr #102 Longboat Key, FL	2.0	2.0	1346	$6,000	$4.46	25d	1	0.89mi
4325 Gulf of Mexico Dr Longboat Key, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1373	$12,000	$8.74	17d	3	0.98mi
535 Forest Way Longboat Key, FL	2.0	2.5	1440	$6,900	$4.79	25d	1	1.02mi
730 Spanish Dr S #99 Longboat Key, FL	2.0	2.0	1255	$2,800	$2.23	3d	1	1.09mi
820 Spanish Dr S Longboat Key, FL	2.0	2.0	1390	$3,000	$2.16	17d	1	1.11mi
676 El Centro Longboat Key, FL	2.0	2.0	1427	$3,250	$2.28	25d	1	1.11mi
914 Spanish Dr S #76 Longboat Key, FL	2.0	2.0	1341	$6,500	$4.85	25d	1	1.14mi
573 Spanish Dr N Longboat Key, FL	2.0	2.0	1380	$3,500	$2.54	17d	1	1.15mi
957 Spanish Dr N Longboat Key, FL	2.0	2.0	1399	$5,500	$3.93	25d	1	1.23mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $1,832 · $21,984/yr
• Likely covers: waterelectric
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $600,000 Active 234 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $600,000 Active 233 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $600,000 Active 232 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $600,000 Active 231 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $600,000 Active 229 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $600,000 Active 228 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $600,000 Active 226 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $600,000 Active 225 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $600,000 Active 224 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $600,000 Active 223 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $600,000 Active 219 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $600,000 Active 218 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $600,000 Active 217 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $600,000 Active 216 DOM
15. 2026-04-27
    price $650,000
16. 2026-03-18
    price $675,000
17. 2026-02-19
    price $699,000
18. 2026-01-23
    price $715,000
19. 2025-11-29
    price $725,000
20. 2025-10-27
    listed $735,000 Active
21. 2024-08-16
    status Pending
22. 2024-06-25
    price $775,000
23. 2024-05-14
    price $800,000
24. 2024-04-25
    price $850,000
25. 2024-03-24
    price $865,000
26. 2024-03-08
    price $875,000
27. 2024-02-21
    price $892,000
28. 2024-02-07
    price $925,000
29. 2024-01-18
    price $950,000
30. 2024-01-01
    price $975,000
31. 2023-10-12
    listed $1,000,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $84,228
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,609
• − Property taxes: −$9,000
• − Insurance: −$8,119
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,738
• − Management: −$6,738
• − HOA: −$21,984
• − Depreciation: −$17,455
• Taxable loss: −$19,414
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,659
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,660/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Longboat Key

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #693
• US rank: #14452

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C- Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Longboat Key, FL
• County: Sarasota County · 448,376 people
• City population: 7,539
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 7,539
• Household income: $158,030
• Rent vs Own: 6.4% rent · 93.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 98.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 7% Romanian 6% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.73%
• Current HPI: 234.5017
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-35.0% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $650,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $675,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $699,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-23 Price Changed $715,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-29 Price Changed $725,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-27 Listed $735,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-16 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-25 Price Changed $775,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-14 Price Changed $800,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-25 Price Changed $850,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-24 Price Changed $865,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-08 Price Changed $875,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-21 Price Changed $892,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-07 Price Changed $925,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-18 Price Changed $950,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-01 Price Changed $975,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-12 Listed $1,000,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid