16443 Brittany Way · Deerwood, TX 77306

$130,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Manufactured public records · 143 Days on market

Built 2002 10,362 sqft lot $116/sqft · 10% below area Est $145k · 10% under $12/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.5/30.0
• ARV discount +12.1/15.0
• DSCR +9.6/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this charming property! Featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and recently updated on a spacious lot, this home is perfect for you. Don't miss out on this opportunity to make this your dream home!

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• Built 2002
• Listed 142 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $384 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 5.4% in Deerwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 414 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 143 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 143 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.67%
• DSCR: 1.56
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $144,945
• List price: $130,000
• Delta: -10.31%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
182 Carmen Blvd	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,120 (0%)	6mo	$129,900	$116	84
16509 Brittany Way	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,120 (0%)	4mo	$129,900	$116	82
16325 Hunters Greens Rd	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+9%)	4mo	$159,990	$132	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $3,447
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.95×
• Total profit: $34,638
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77306

• Home prices YoY: -4.1%
• Active inventory: 414
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,626 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$152 /mo · $1,827/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$12
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $384

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,139

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6621 W Forest Rd Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	952	$1,450	$1.52	43d	1	1.18mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $12 · $144/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $130,000 Active 143 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $130,000 Active 142 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $130,000 Active 141 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $130,000 Active 140 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $130,000 Active 138 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $130,000 Active 134 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $130,000 Active 133 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $130,000 Active 132 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $130,000 Active 129 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $130,000 Active 128 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $130,000 Active 127 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $130,000 Active 126 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $130,000 Active 125 DOM
14. 2026-01-26
    listed $145,000 Active 209-char remark

    Show marketing remark (209 chars)

    Welcome home to this charming property! Featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and recently updated on a spacious lot, this home is perfect for you. Don't miss out on this opportunity to make this your dream home!

15. 2026-01-26
    historical

    Show marketing remark (209 chars)

    Welcome home to this charming property! Featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and recently updated on a spacious lot, this home is perfect for you. Don't miss out on this opportunity to make this your dream home!

16. 2026-01-01
    status Active
17. 2025-12-31
    historical
18. 2025-10-11
    listed $155,000 Active
19. 2024-10-09
    soldstatus
20. 2003-10-30
    historical
21. 2003-06-19
    listed $44,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,827 · $152/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,379 · $198/mo
• Expected delta: +$552/yr (+$46/mo · 30.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,514
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$1,827
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,561
• − Management: −$1,561
• − HOA: −$144
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $2,706
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$650
• After-tax cash flow: $3,964/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Deerwood

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,086
• Household income: $76,257
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 231.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 41% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 51%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 45% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -13.02%
• Current HPI: 306.3801
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+222.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-26 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-01-26 Listed $145,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-01 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-11 Listed $155,000 HARMLS
• 2024-10-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-10-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2003-06-19 Listed $44,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+9.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,827 · +23.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.