183 Circle Ln · Burnside, KY 42519

$69,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 432 sqft · Manufactured public records · 89 Days on market

Built 2009 0.30 ac lot $160/sqft · 70% above area Est $61k · 14% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.6/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.3/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tired of paying hotel fees or rent? Then check out this perfect Lake Cumberland retreat, permanent resident or add it to your rental portfolio. Located less then one mile from Burnside Island boat ramp and 10 min from Somerset. Offering 2 beds, 1 bath, cozy open concept LR/Kitchen, a large covered back porch with a wood burning stove and room out doors for a fire pit too. Priced to sell.

Key facts

• Wood burning stove
• 0.3 acre lot
• Built 2009

Tags

• LAKE CUMBERLAND RETREAT
• LARGE COVERED BACK PORCH
• WOOD BURNING STOVE
• ROOM OUTDOORS FOR FIRE PIT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $69k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $572 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $69k).
• Recommended offer: $65k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.2% vs local median 3.0% in Burnside — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#141 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Pulaski County (town): math 43% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #17 of 165 in KY (top 10%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 117 units permitted in Pulaski County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($477 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (5.2% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (5.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($65k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $8k; list at $69k implies a 762% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $64,859 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.80% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.54%
• DSCR: 2.58
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $60,592
• List price: $69,000
• Delta: 13.88%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

5.19% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 44.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.75×
• Total profit: $53,089
• Equity at exit: $39,913

10-year hold

• IRR: 42.2%
• Equity multiple: 7.66×
• Total profit: $128,597
• Equity at exit: $69,566

Cash invested: $19,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42519

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,241 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$362
• Tax from tax record: −$17 /mo · $206/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$261
• Net cashflow: $572

Break-even live

Break-even rent $516

Max offer price $69,000

Occupancy floor 49%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,250
• Closing costs: $2,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,000 Active 89 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,000 Active 88 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   price $69,000 Active 87 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $73,000 Active 87 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $73,000 Active 86 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $73,000 Active 84 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $73,000 Active 83 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $73,000 Active 80 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $73,000 Active 79 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $73,000 Active 78 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $73,000 Active 77 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $73,000 Active 74 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    price $73,000 Active 73 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $78,000 Active 73 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $78,000 Active 72 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $78,000 Active 71 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $78,000 Active 70 DOM
18. 2026-05-05
    price $78,000 390-char remark

    Show marketing remark (390 chars)

    Tired of paying hotel fees or rent? Then check out this perfect Lake Cumberland retreat, permanent resident or add it to your rental portfolio. Located less then one mile from Burnside Island boat ramp and 10 min from Somerset. Offering 2 beds, 1 bath, cozy open concept LR/Kitchen, a large covered back porch with a wood burning stove and room out doors for a fire pit too. Priced to sell.

19. 2026-04-22
    price $84,500 390-char remark

    Show marketing remark (390 chars)

    Tired of paying hotel fees or rent? Then check out this perfect Lake Cumberland retreat, permanent resident or add it to your rental portfolio. Located less then one mile from Burnside Island boat ramp and 10 min from Somerset. Offering 2 beds, 1 bath, cozy open concept LR/Kitchen, a large covered back porch with a wood burning stove and room out doors for a fire pit too. Priced to sell.

20. 2026-04-18
    status Active 390-char remark

    Show marketing remark (390 chars)

    Tired of paying hotel fees or rent? Then check out this perfect Lake Cumberland retreat, permanent resident or add it to your rental portfolio. Located less then one mile from Burnside Island boat ramp and 10 min from Somerset. Offering 2 beds, 1 bath, cozy open concept LR/Kitchen, a large covered back porch with a wood burning stove and room out doors for a fire pit too. Priced to sell.

21. 2026-04-06
    historical Contingent 390-char remark

    Show marketing remark (390 chars)

    Tired of paying hotel fees or rent? Then check out this perfect Lake Cumberland retreat, permanent resident or add it to your rental portfolio. Located less then one mile from Burnside Island boat ramp and 10 min from Somerset. Offering 2 beds, 1 bath, cozy open concept LR/Kitchen, a large covered back porch with a wood burning stove and room out doors for a fire pit too. Priced to sell.

22. 2026-03-21
    listed $89,000 Active 390-char remark

    Show marketing remark (390 chars)

    Tired of paying hotel fees or rent? Then check out this perfect Lake Cumberland retreat, permanent resident or add it to your rental portfolio. Located less then one mile from Burnside Island boat ramp and 10 min from Somerset. Offering 2 beds, 1 bath, cozy open concept LR/Kitchen, a large covered back porch with a wood burning stove and room out doors for a fire pit too. Priced to sell.

23. 2014-06-04
    soldstatus $8,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $206 · $17/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $593 · $49/mo
• Expected delta: +$387/yr (+$32/mo · 187.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,886
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,865
• − Property taxes: −$206
• − Insurance: −$345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,191
• − Management: −$1,191
• − Depreciation: −$2,007
• Taxable income: $6,081
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,459
• After-tax cash flow: $5,407/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pulaski County
• NCES district ID: 2104950
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $35,366
• Composite: 39.69/100
• National rank: #3906
• State rank: #17 of 165 in KY

Livability — Burnside

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #141
• US rank: #6774

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,800

Population outlook (Pulaski County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 65,414 people
• By 2030: 65,828 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 65,972 · +0.9%
• By 2050: 65,108 · -0.5%
• By 2075: 61,647 · -5.8%
• By 2100: 53,613 · -18.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 3% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Pulaski

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.2) · D 16.9% · R 82.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.9pp toward R · 2008: -55.4pp · 2024: -65.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.2 2020: R+62.7 2016: R+66.7 2012: R+60.5 2008: R+55.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.19%
• Current HPI: 358.2137
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+875.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $78,000 ImagineMLS
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $84,500 ImagineMLS
• 2026-04-18 Relisted — ImagineMLS
• 2026-04-06 Contingent — ImagineMLS
• 2026-03-21 Listed $89,000 ImagineMLS
• 2014-06-04 Sold (Public Records) $8,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $206 · -2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.