423 Gregory Ln #28 · Fairfield, CA 94533

$190,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 794 sqft · Condo public records · 57 Days on market

Built 1974 $239/sqft · 38% below area Est $305k · 38% under $505/mo HOA · 23% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully fully renovated ground-floor condo offering modern style and easy living in the heart of Fairfield. This move-in ready home features a brand-new kitchen with updated cabinetry, sleek countertops, and modern finishes, along with a completely remodeled bathroom designed with fresh, contemporary touches. Enjoy new flooring throughout and fresh interior paint, creating a bright and cohesive feel from the moment you walk in. The convenient ground-level location provides easy access and comfortable day-to-day living. The community offers desirable amenities including an in-ground swimming pool and on-site laundromat for added convenience. Perfect for first-time buyers, downsizers, or investors looking for a turnkey property with stylish upgrades and low-maintenance living.

Key facts

• Ground floor condo
• Brand new kitchen
• New flooring

Tags

• GROUND FLOOR CONDO
• BRAND NEW KITCHEN
• COMPLETELY REMODELED BATHROOM
• NEW FLOORING
• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT
• IN GROUND SWIMMING POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $51 ($608/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $184k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.0% in Fairfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#314 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, crime D-, commute F.
• Fairfield-Suisun Unified (urban): math 23% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #238 of 517 in CA (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 264 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,472 units permitted in Solano County in 2024 (131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Solano County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $87k; list at $190k implies a 118% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,300 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.14%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $304,525
• List price: $190,000
• Delta: -37.61%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.15% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-33,406
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-47,541
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94533

• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 264
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,189 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$98 /mo · $1,175/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$505
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$460
• Net cashflow: $51

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,125

Max offer price $190,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $158	-5% $104	+0% $51	+5% $-3	+10% $-57
Rent	-10% $-122	-5% $-36	+0% $51	+5% $137	+10% $224
Rate	-1.0pp $146	-0.5pp $99	base $51	+0.5pp $1	+1.0pp $-49

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1600 Woolner Ave Fairfield, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	834	$2,438	$2.92	14d	84	0.09mi
207 Roger St Fairfield, CA	3.0	1.0	1014	$2,599	$2.56	14d	1	0.24mi
1350 Crowley Ln Fairfield, CA	1.0	1.0	465	$1,599	$3.44	14d	31	0.26mi
1725 Idaho St Unit 1725 Fairfield, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,875	$2.34	44d	1	0.31mi
1615 Kentucky St Fairfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1117	$2,500	$2.24	21d	1	0.33mi
1613 James St Fairfield, CA	3.0	1.0	1014	$2,649	$2.61	24d	1	0.34mi
1837 Indiana St Fairfield, CA	2.0	1.0	760	$1,950	$2.57	14d	1	0.36mi
2100 W Texas St Fairfield, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1015	$2,931	$2.89	14d	13	0.45mi
409 Taylor St Unit 8 Fairfield, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,650	$1.83	14d	1	0.51mi
1001 Broadway St Fairfield, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,895	$2.37	24d	1	0.57mi
1028 Illinois St Unit A Fairfield, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,775	$1.97	44d	1	0.60mi
933 Delaware St Unit A Fairfield, CA	1.0	1.0	640	$1,800	$2.81	24d	1	0.63mi
940 Ohio St Unit A Fairfield, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,900	$2.11	14d	1	0.65mi
900 Ohio St Apt B Fairfield, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,875	$2.34	14d	1	0.67mi
405 Webster St Unit 405 Webster Street, 6 Fairfield, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,645	$2.06	44d	1	0.74mi
2140 Woolner Ave Unit D Fairfield, CA	3.0	1.5	1000	$2,350	$2.35	14d	1	0.74mi
727 Broadway St Unit 721 Fairfield, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$2,195	$2.58	21d	1	0.78mi
721 Broadway St Unit 721 Fairfield, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$2,195	$2.58	21d	1	0.79mi
423 Hamilton Dr Unit A Fairfield, CA	2.0	1.0	936	$2,550	$2.72	24d	1	0.91mi
1240 Dana Dr Fairfield, CA	2.0	2.0	950	$1,800	$1.89	44d	1	1.01mi
403 Solano St Unit 4 Suisun City, CA	2.0	1.0	743	$1,675	$2.25	44d	1	1.04mi
307 California St Unit B Suisun City, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,900	$2.38	44d	1	1.05mi
1625 Woodcreek Dr Fairfield, CA	1.0	1.0	731	$1,750	$2.39	14d	2	1.07mi
1206 Dana Dr Unit 02 Fairfield, CA	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,925	$1.75	44d	1	1.07mi
1415 Union Ave Fairfield, CA	1.0	1.0	650	$1,750	$2.69	44d	1	1.12mi
1600 Travion Ct Fairfield, CA	2.0	1.0	837	$1,950	$2.33	44d	3	1.17mi
225 Walnut St Suisun City, CA	3.0	2.0	1040	$2,799	$2.69	14d	1	1.25mi
233 Marina Blvd Suisun City, CA	2.0–3.0	1.0	815	$2,014	$2.47	44d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $505 · $6,060/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $190,000 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $190,000 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $190,000 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $190,000 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $190,000 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $190,000 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $190,000 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $190,000 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $190,000 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $190,000 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $190,000 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $190,000 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $190,000 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $190,000 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-05-04
    status Active 795-char remark

    Show marketing remark (795 chars)

    Beautifully fully renovated ground-floor condo offering modern style and easy living in the heart of Fairfield. This move-in ready home features a brand-new kitchen with updated cabinetry, sleek countertops, and modern finishes, along with a completely remodeled bathroom designed with fresh, contemporary touches. Enjoy new flooring throughout and fresh interior paint, creating a bright and cohesive feel from the moment you walk in. The convenient ground-level location provides easy access and comfortable day-to-day living. The community offers desirable amenities including an in-ground swimming pool and on-site laundromat for added convenience. Perfect for first-time buyers, downsizers, or investors looking for a turnkey property with stylish upgrades and low-maintenance living.

16. 2026-03-23
    status Pending 795-char remark

    Show marketing remark (795 chars)

    Beautifully fully renovated ground-floor condo offering modern style and easy living in the heart of Fairfield. This move-in ready home features a brand-new kitchen with updated cabinetry, sleek countertops, and modern finishes, along with a completely remodeled bathroom designed with fresh, contemporary touches. Enjoy new flooring throughout and fresh interior paint, creating a bright and cohesive feel from the moment you walk in. The convenient ground-level location provides easy access and comfortable day-to-day living. The community offers desirable amenities including an in-ground swimming pool and on-site laundromat for added convenience. Perfect for first-time buyers, downsizers, or investors looking for a turnkey property with stylish upgrades and low-maintenance living.

17. 2026-03-11
    listed $190,000 Active 795-char remark

    Show marketing remark (795 chars)

    Beautifully fully renovated ground-floor condo offering modern style and easy living in the heart of Fairfield. This move-in ready home features a brand-new kitchen with updated cabinetry, sleek countertops, and modern finishes, along with a completely remodeled bathroom designed with fresh, contemporary touches. Enjoy new flooring throughout and fresh interior paint, creating a bright and cohesive feel from the moment you walk in. The convenient ground-level location provides easy access and comfortable day-to-day living. The community offers desirable amenities including an in-ground swimming pool and on-site laundromat for added convenience. Perfect for first-time buyers, downsizers, or investors looking for a turnkey property with stylish upgrades and low-maintenance living.

18. 2016-02-10
    soldstatus $87,000 Sold 221-char remark

    Show marketing remark (221 chars)

    Wow Move In Ready ! Gorgeous and fresh updated, including the following items are new , paint,laminated wood floor,window,kitchen cabinets,Quartz counter,appliances and bathroom vanity .....Hurry and come to see this one.

19. 2016-02-10
    soldstatus $87,000

    Show marketing remark (221 chars)

    Wow Move In Ready ! Gorgeous and fresh updated, including the following items are new , paint,laminated wood floor,window,kitchen cabinets,Quartz counter,appliances and bathroom vanity .....Hurry and come to see this one.

20. 2015-12-27
    historical Contingent 221-char remark

    Show marketing remark (221 chars)

    Wow Move In Ready ! Gorgeous and fresh updated, including the following items are new , paint,laminated wood floor,window,kitchen cabinets,Quartz counter,appliances and bathroom vanity .....Hurry and come to see this one.

21. 2015-12-21
    status Active 221-char remark

    Show marketing remark (221 chars)

    Wow Move In Ready ! Gorgeous and fresh updated, including the following items are new , paint,laminated wood floor,window,kitchen cabinets,Quartz counter,appliances and bathroom vanity .....Hurry and come to see this one.

22. 2015-12-01
    historical Contingent 221-char remark

    Show marketing remark (221 chars)

    Wow Move In Ready ! Gorgeous and fresh updated, including the following items are new , paint,laminated wood floor,window,kitchen cabinets,Quartz counter,appliances and bathroom vanity .....Hurry and come to see this one.

23. 2015-11-01
    listed $99,000 Active 221-char remark

    Show marketing remark (221 chars)

    Wow Move In Ready ! Gorgeous and fresh updated, including the following items are new , paint,laminated wood floor,window,kitchen cabinets,Quartz counter,appliances and bathroom vanity .....Hurry and come to see this one.

24. 2000-04-24
    soldstatus $46,000
25. 1996-08-27
    soldstatus $26,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,175 · $98/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,444 · $120/mo
• Expected delta: +$269/yr (+$22/mo · 22.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 14 unhealthy d/yr today · 15 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,266
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$1,175
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,101
• − Management: −$2,101
• − HOA: −$6,060
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$2,292
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$550
• After-tax cash flow: $1,158/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fairfield-Suisun Unified
• NCES district ID: 0613360
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $69,654
• Composite: 34.59/100
• National rank: #5157
• State rank: #238 of 517 in CA

Livability — Fairfield

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #314
• US rank: #10551

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fairfield, CA
• County: Solano County · 433,239 people
• City population: 120,008
• Metro: Vallejo, CA
• Population (ZIP): 78,805
• Household income: $87,384
• Rent vs Own: 44.1% rent · 55.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 3474.0

Population outlook (Solano County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 478,685 people
• By 2030: 497,974 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 528,515 · +10.4%
• By 2050: 549,115 · +14.7%
• By 2075: 587,229 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 571,378 · +19.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 39% White 23% Black 16% Two or more races 16% Asian 14% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 28% Tagalog/Filipino 6% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Solano

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.0) · D 60.0% · R 37.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.6pp toward R · 2008: 28.6pp · 2024: 23.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.0 2020: D+30.3 2016: D+30.5 2012: D+28.1 2008: D+28.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -258.88%
• Current HPI: 285.4365
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.15%
• Metro: Vallejo, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+630.8% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Relisted — BAREIS
• 2026-03-23 Pending — BAREIS
• 2026-03-11 Listed $190,000 BAREIS
• 2016-02-10 Sold (Public Records) $87,000 Public Records
• 2016-02-10 Sold (MLS) $87,000 BAREIS
• 2015-12-27 Contingent — BAREIS
• 2015-12-21 Relisted — BAREIS
• 2015-12-01 Contingent — BAREIS
• 2015-11-01 Listed $99,000 BAREIS
• 2000-04-24 Sold (Public Records) $46,000 Public Records
• 1996-08-27 Sold (Public Records) $26,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,175 · -0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.