17106 Pickering Rd · Porter Heights, TX 77302

$225,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,048 sqft · Manufactured public records · 26 Days on market

Built 2007

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 2007
• Listed 26 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $218 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $224k (0.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $222k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 2.5% in Porter Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#663 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Caney Creek H S (math 33% / reading 42%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 2,504 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 34% district-wide (45 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 38% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 1111 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $221,625 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.16%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-21,836
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $1,841
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77302

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 1111
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,245 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$281 /mo · $3,375/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$471
• Net cashflow: $218

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,968

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   status $225,000 Active 25 DOM
3. 2026-02-17
   status Pending
4. 2026-02-06
   status Pending
5. 2026-01-23
   listed $225,000 Active
6. 2025-07-08
   status Pending
7. 2025-07-02
   historical Active Under Contract
8. 2025-06-30
   historical
9. 2025-06-17
   listed $199,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,937
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$3,375
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,155
• − Management: −$2,155
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$1,022
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$245
• After-tax cash flow: $2,866/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Porter Heights

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #663
• US rank: #12479

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,546
• Household income: $84,673
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 205.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.56%
• Current HPI: 262.1879
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+13.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-02-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-01-23 Listed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-07-02 Contingent — HARMLS
• 2025-06-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-06-17 Listed $199,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

-7.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $350 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.