4033 Shawnee Trl · Heartland, TX 75126

$195,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,045 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 2006 6,098 sqft lot $187/sqft · 16% below area Est $231k · 16% under $56/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.6/15.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This charming two-bedroom, two-bathroom home in the growing Heartland community offers a spacious floor plan, inviting atmosphere, and exceptional value. Recent improvements include fresh interior paint, a newer roof, and fence repairs, reflecting the pride of ownership and care that has gone into maintaining this home. The property features a generous front yard and backyard, providing plenty of space for entertaining, relaxing, or enjoying outdoor activities. Beautiful crepe myrtle trees add charm and curb appeal to the property and surrounding area. This home has been well maintained, and the sellers have proactively addressed major items that arose during previous inspections. The inspe

Key facts

• Newer roof
• Generous front yard
• Recent improvements

Tags

• RECENT IMPROVEMENTS
• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT
• NEWER ROOF
• GENEROUS FRONT YARD
• WELL MAINTAINED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Association management: CCMC - Heartland Community Association
• Financial info: Loan types accepted: Cash, Conventional, FHA
• HOA & community: Mandatory association; Semi-annual association fee (front yard maintenance included)

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Covered parking for 2 vehicles; Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single-family residence; Built in 2006; Preowned; Property not attached; Does not include accessory unit; Subdivision: Heartland Tr B Ph 1a
• Construction: Brick, concrete, and siding construction; Asphalt composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Back yard with fencing; Fenced yard; Exterior lighting; Easements for electric and water lines

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop and electric oven/range; Microwave; Built-in cabinets; Pantry; Water line to refrigerator; Dishwasher; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (level 1) — approx. 14 x 11; Additional bedroom (level 1) — approx. 10 x 11
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Primary bathroom with medicine cabinet; Additional bathroom with medicine cabinet
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Cable TV available; High-speed internet available; Pantry; Room count: 6; One living area; One dining area; Levels: One
• Laundry & utility: Dryer included; TV antenna

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-212 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $157k (19.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (5.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $157k (19.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Crandall ISD (rural): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #351 of 826 in TX (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hollis T Dietz El (math 32% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,921 of 4,322 statewide, top 45%, 815 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 41% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 2179 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 11 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,462 (19.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.67%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $231,239
• List price: $195,000
• Delta: -15.67%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 19 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-47,792
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: -31.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.27×
• Total profit: $-69,597
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75126

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 2179
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,843 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$509 /mo · $6,106/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$56
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$387
• Net cashflow: $-212

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,112

Max offer price $157,462

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-102	-5% $-157	+0% $-212	+5% $-268	+10% $-323
Rent	-10% $-358	-5% $-285	+0% $-212	+5% $-140	+10% $-67
Rate	-1.0pp $-114	-0.5pp $-163	base $-212	+0.5pp $-263	+1.0pp $-314

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2015 Angel Way Heartland, TX	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,671	$1.19	22d	1	0.06mi
4009 Freedom St Heartland, TX	3.0	2.0	1419	$1,800	$1.27	45d	1	0.12mi
4032 Eagle Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1456	$1,775	$1.22	5d	1	0.23mi
2038 Allyson Dr Heartland, TX	3.0	2.0	1496	$1,900	$1.27	44d	1	0.34mi
4002 Bighorn Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1365	$2,120	$1.55	2d	1	1.12mi
2919 Cascade Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1481	$2,200	$1.49	44d	1	1.15mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $56 · $672/yr

Listing history 43 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 9 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $195,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $195,000 Active 2 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   remarks 699-char remark
9. 2026-06-07
   days on marketlisting id $195,000 Active 1 DOM
10. 2026-04-11
    listed $195,000 Active 711-char remark
11. 2025-09-27
    historical
12. 2025-09-09
    price $190,000
13. 2025-08-24
    listed $215,000 Active
14. 2025-08-18
    historical
15. 2025-05-31
    price $205,000
16. 2025-04-15
    price $209,000
17. 2025-04-08
    price $211,000
18. 2025-03-13
    price $215,000
19. 2025-03-04
    price $220,000
20. 2025-02-15
    listed $230,000 Active
21. 2024-07-05
    price $210,000
22. 2024-06-21
    listed $230,000 Active
23. 2021-06-07
    historical
24. 2021-06-01
    listed $200,000 Active
25. 2018-10-30
    soldstatus
26. 2018-10-26
    soldstatus Sold
27. 2018-10-02
    status Pending
28. 2018-09-29
    historical Active Option Contract
29. 2018-09-15
    listed $144,000 Active
30. 2013-12-18
    soldstatus Closed
31. 2013-12-09
    status Pending
32. 2013-12-09
    status Active
33. 2013-12-05
    status Pending
34. 2013-12-04
    status Active
35. 2013-11-24
    status Pending
36. 2013-10-31
    price $80,000
37. 2013-10-01
    price $85,000
38. 2013-09-13
    price $95,000
39. 2013-08-14
    price $99,900
40. 2013-07-08
    listed $105,000 Active
41. 2007-03-16
    soldstatus
42. 2007-03-03
    historical
43. 2006-12-11
    listed $107,490

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,106 · $509/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,106 · $509/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,120
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$6,106
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,770
• − Management: −$1,770
• − HOA: −$672
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$5,768
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,384
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,165/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crandall ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815510
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $70,076
• Composite: 35.57/100
• National rank: #4901
• State rank: #351 of 826 in TX

Livability — Heartland

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Heartland, TX
• County: Kaufman County · 122,338 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,799
• Household income: $103,673
• Rent vs Own: 19.5% rent · 80.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1306.0

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 14% Arabic 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.93%
• Current HPI: 148.5749
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+81.4% since first listed

36 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Listed $195,000 NTREIS
• 2026-05-27 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-04-11 Listed $195,000 NTREIS
• 2025-09-27 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-09-09 Price Changed $190,000 NTREIS
• 2025-08-24 Listed $215,000 NTREIS
• 2025-08-18 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-05-31 Price Changed $205,000 NTREIS
• 2025-04-15 Price Changed $209,000 NTREIS
• 2025-04-08 Price Changed $211,000 NTREIS
• 2025-03-13 Price Changed $215,000 NTREIS
• 2025-03-04 Price Changed $220,000 NTREIS
• 2025-02-15 Listed $230,000 NTREIS
• 2024-07-05 Price Changed $210,000 NTREIS
• 2024-06-21 Listed $230,000 NTREIS
• 2021-06-07 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2021-06-01 Listed $200,000 NTREIS
• 2018-10-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-10-26 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2018-10-02 Pending — NTREIS
• 2018-09-29 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2018-09-15 Listed $144,000 NTREIS
• 2013-12-18 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2013-12-09 Pending — NTREIS
• 2013-12-09 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2013-12-05 Pending — NTREIS
• 2013-12-04 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2013-11-24 Pending — NTREIS
• 2013-10-31 Price Changed $80,000 NTREIS
• 2013-10-01 Price Changed $85,000 NTREIS
• 2013-09-13 Price Changed $95,000 NTREIS
• 2013-08-14 Price Changed $99,900 NTREIS
• 2013-07-08 Listed $105,000 NTREIS
• 2007-03-16 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2007-03-03 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2006-12-11 Listed $107,490 NTREIS

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,106 · +0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.