8417 Porcupine Dr · Gouldsboro, PA 18466

$189,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 868 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 45 Days on market

Built 1988 8,712 sqft lot $218/sqft · 8% below area Est $183k · at est. $143/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.0/30.0
• Appreciation +6.2/10.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• ARV discount +5.9/15.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully updated 2-bedroom, 1-bath home nestled in a highly desirable amenity-filled community! Featuring a bright and open floor plan, this move-in-ready home offers the perfect blend of comfort, charm, and modern updates. Step inside to find brand-new floating flooring throughout, freshly painted interiors, and all-new moldings that create a clean, stylish feel. The spacious living area is highlighted by soaring cathedral ceilings, a cozy propane fireplace, and abundant natural light, making it the perfect space to relax or entertain. Enjoy year-round comfort with ceiling fans in every room, plus the added bonus of attic storage for extra convenience. Unwind in your pri

Key facts

• 8,712 sq ft lot
• Community pool
• Built 1988

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property listed in subdivision: A Pocono Country Place; Directions: Main Entrance, at 2nd stop sign right to Pocono Country Place, left to Cloudcrest, right to Bumblebee, right to Porcupine
• HOA & community: Homeowners association; Annual association fee of $1,711 (about $142.58/month); Association includes security; Community amenities: gated entry, clubhouse, playground, recreation facilities, tennis courts, pool

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Off-street parking
• Security: 24-hour security; Security system (owned); Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family house; Residential property
• Construction: Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Paved road access; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 5 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living areas)
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating (electric); Wall/window cooling unit(s)
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Unfurnished; Basement (other)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Main level laundry in a laundry closet
• Other interior features: Living room propane fireplace (1)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $198 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $189k).
• Recommended offer: $183k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 5.5% in Gouldsboro — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#903 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pocono Mountain SD (rural): math 37% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #245 of 539 in PA (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 355 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 278 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (52 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (2.4% local appreciation)).
• Monroe County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $183,330 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.48%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $182,593
• List price: $189,000
• Delta: 3.51%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8958 Pheasant Ln	0.09mi	2/1.0	750 (-14%)	2mo	$215,000	$287	71
8062 Red Squirrel dr Dr	0.35mi	2/1.0	800 (-8%)	1mo	$145,000	$181	70
8955 Deerfield Rd	0.41mi	2/1.0	864 (-0%)	12mo	$190,000	$220	70
940 Country Place Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0 (+1)	936 (+8%)	1mo	$220,000	$235	69
7942 Sleepy Hollow Dr	0.34mi	2/1.0	964 (+11%)	5mo	$182,750	$190	61
8504 Bumble Bee Way	0.11mi	2/1.5	998 (+15%)	12mo	$214,900	$215	58
7443 Tamara Ln	0.44mi	3/1.0 (+1)	957 (+10%)	12mo	$169,000	$177	48
7695 Fawn Ln	0.65mi	3/1.0 (+1)	924 (+6%)	10mo	$225,000	$244	46
7164 Mountain Dr	0.61mi	3/1.0 (+1)	960 (+11%)	14mo	$160,000	$167	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.36% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $29,048
• Equity at exit: $78,221

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.78×
• Total profit: $93,969
• Equity at exit: $115,534

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18466

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 355
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,935 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$118 /mo · $1,415/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$143
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$406
• Net cashflow: $198

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,685

Max offer price $189,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
954 Country Place Dr Tobyhanna, PA	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,900	$1.90	15d	1	0.23mi
954 Country Place Dr Unit H623 Tobyhanna, PA	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,900	$1.83	44d	1	0.23mi
9026 Idlewild Dr Tobyhanna, PA	3.0	2.0	1068	$2,300	$2.15	13d	1	1.17mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $143 · $1,716/yr

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $189,000 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,000 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,000 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,000 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,000 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $189,000 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,000 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $189,000 Active 36 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,000 Active 35 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $189,000 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $189,000 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,000 Active 28 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,000 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,000 Active 26 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $189,000 Active 25 DOM
16. 2026-05-05
    listed $189,000 Active 577-char remark
17. 2025-08-20
    listed $194,999 Active
18. 2025-07-17
    listed $198,999 Active
19. 2025-07-09
    price $205,000
20. 2025-06-24
    listed $215,000 Active
21. 2022-07-15
    soldstatus $175,000
22. 2022-07-15
    soldstatus $170,000
23. 2022-04-29
    listed $175,000
24. 2020-11-18
    soldstatus $63,353

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,415 · $118/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,201 · $183/mo
• Expected delta: +$786/yr (+$65/mo · 55.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,217
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$1,415
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,857
• − Management: −$1,857
• − HOA: −$1,716
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable loss: −$658
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$158
• After-tax cash flow: $2,530/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pocono Mountain SD
• NCES district ID: 4219500
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $55,317
• Composite: 39.91/100
• National rank: #3856
• State rank: #245 of 539 in PA

Livability — Gouldsboro

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #903
• US rank: #9638

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 17,997

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,099 people
• By 2030: 161,412 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 154,616 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 146,710 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 140,830 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 138,472 · -15.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 38% Hispanic / Latino 27% Black 24% Two or more races 17% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 12% Dominican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Portuguese 1% German 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.1% · R 49.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.1pp toward R · 2008: 16.3pp · 2024: -0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.8 2020: D+6.4 2016: D+0.3 2012: D+14.0 2008: D+16.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.36%
• Current HPI: 202.4134
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+198.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Listed $189,000 PMAR
• 2025-08-20 Listed $194,999 PMAR
• 2025-07-17 Listed $198,999 PMAR
• 2025-07-09 Price Changed $205,000 PMAR
• 2025-06-24 Listed $215,000 PMAR
• 2022-07-15 Sold (Public Records) $170,000 Public Records
• 2022-07-15 Sold (MLS) $175,000 PMAR
• 2022-04-29 Listed $175,000 PMAR
• 2020-11-18 Sold (Public Records) $63,353 Public Records

Property tax history

-5.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,415 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.